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The latest Morgan Poll finds that primary support for the ALP is up 1% to 49.5% (up 11.9% since the 2004 election)  Support for the Coalition Government is down 1.5% to 34.5% (down 11.9% since the 2004 election).

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 60% (up 1.5%), L-NP 40% (down 1.5%). 

If an election had been held during the last fortnight the ALP would have won in a landslide.

On the important question of who the electorate “think will win” the next Federal election, 56.5% (up 2%) think the ALP will win, 31% (up 0.5%) think the L-NP will win and 12.5% (down 2.5%) can’t say. 

Among the minor parties support for The Greens is 9% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (down 1%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (up 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (up 0.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Following a small gain in Coalition support in the previous Morgan Poll, the ALP has extended its two-party preferred lead during the last fortnight to 20%: ALP 60%, L-NP 40%.  Primary support for Labor is up 1% to 49.5% while Coalition support fell 1.5% to 34.5%.

“There was much talk of an interest rate rise (that did not eventuate) during the period, which would have been a concern to electors.  Historically, interest rate rises boost support for the Opposition. 

“On the first weekend of interviewing, Labor comprehensively won the NSW State Election. ALP spin doctors were quick to highlight the negative effect that the WorkChoices legislation had on the result.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” 

Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 1%) did not name a party. 

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of March 24/25 & March 30/April 1, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,055 electors. 

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

During the period:

• The Federal Labor Party pledged more than $4.5 billion to build a nationwide internet broadband network. The network will deliver high speed internet access to 98 per cent of Australians within five years;

 

• Campaigning for East Timor's April 9 presidential election began, with Prime Minister and Nobel laureate Jose Ramos-Horta seen as favourite to win;

• New restrictions for carry-on luggage for those catching international flights from Australian airports were instated, after a potential terrorist attack was foiled at London's Heathrow Airport last August;

• New South Wales Premier Morris Iemma claimed victory in the state election; and

• Guantanamo Bay detainee, David Hicks pleaded guilty to a charge of providing material support for terrorism.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4155 is taken from Computer Report No. 2185

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