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The latest Morgan Poll finds that primary support for the ALP is up 0.5% to 50% (up 12.4% since the 2004 election). Support for the Coalition Government is up 1% to 35.5% (down 10.9% since the 2004 election).

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 59.5% (down 0.5%), L-NP 40.5% (up 0.5%).

If an election had been held during the last fortnight the ALP would have won in a landslide.

On the important question of who the electorate “think will win” the next Federal election, 55% (down 1.5%) think the ALP will win, 31.5% (up 0.5%) think the L-NP will win and 13.5% (up 1%) can’t say.

Among the minor parties support for The Greens is 7.5% (down 1.5%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 1% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (up 0.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite the poor publicity received recently by Kevin Rudd, the ALP continues to perform well in the Morgan Poll — Australia’s only public opinion poll conducted by face-to-face interviews. Primary support for the ALP increased by 0.5% to 50% while support for the Coalition Government remains low (35.5%, up 1%).

“IR is the sleeper issue of this campaign and, with the ALP releasing their alternate IR policies on Wednesday, it will be interesting to see if they resonate with the public.

“A Special Roy Morgan survey shows that 87% of the one million plus electors on AWAs are satisfied with the way they are employed, which is slightly higher than the 84% of those electors on industrial-based awards, and 85% of those electors who maintain that they are on individual contracts who are satisfied with the way they are employed.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,802 electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

During the period:

• Federal Employment and Workplace Minister Joe Hockey and Labor Leader Kevin Rudd received criticism after they dropped their weekly guest spot on Channel Seven's Sunrise program.

 

• The ALP endorsed former ABC journalist Maxine McKew to contest the Prime Minister's seat of Bennelong at this year's federal election;

• Governor Shintaro Ishihara secured a third term leading Tokyo;

 

• Australian farm debt reached an all time high with the ongoing drought and rising property prices;

 

• The unemployment rate stood at 4.5% returning to its lowest rate in more than 32 years; and

• Federal Attorney-General Philip Ruddock called for books advocating terrorism to be banned.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4157 is taken from Computer Report No. 2187

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