Leadership Change Boosted ALP Senate Support In All States
| Finding No. 4161 -
May 11, 2007 |
The latest Federal Morgan Poll finds that support for the ALP in the Senate is trending upwards since Kevin Rudd took over as leader of the Labor Party. In the March/April period, 45.5% of Australia electors said they would vote Labor “if a Federal election for the Senate were being held today” compared to 39% in September/October, 40% in November/December, and 42% in January/February.
Support for the ALP (during March/April) was highest in South Australia (47.5%) and lowest in Western Australia (41.5%).
Support for the Coalition in the Senate during March/April was 32.5%, which is down 3.5% from its January/February result of 36%.
Support for the Greens is 9.5%. Among the other minor parties support for the Australian Democrats is 4%, Family First 2%, One Nation 1%, and support for Other Parties and Independent Candidates is 5.5%.
Results by State (March/April):
• In New South Wales: ALP 46.5%, L-NP 31%, Greens 9.5%, Democrats 4%, CDP 2.5%; Family First 1%, One Nation 1%, Other 4.5%. If a half-Senate election were to be held now, this would result in three NSW ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator).
• In Victoria: ALP 46%, L-NP 34%, Greens 11%, Democrats 3.5%, Family First 3%, One Nation 1%, Other 1.5%. This would result in three Victorian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator).
• In Queensland: ALP 44.5%, Liberal 25%, Greens 7%, Nationals 6%, Democrats 4.5%, Pauline Hanson 4.5%, Family First 2.5%, One Nation 1.5%, Other 4.5%. This would result in three Queensland ALP Senators, two Liberal Senators, and another Senator, most probably one from either the National Party, the Greens or Pauline Hanson once preferences have been allocated.
• In South Australia: ALP 47.5%, L-NP 31.5%, Democrats 6.5%, Greens 5.5%, Family First 3.5%, One Nation 1%, Other 4.5%. This would result in three South Australian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one position from the Greens, Democrats or Family First determined by the allocation of preferences.
• In Western Australia: ALP 41.5%, Liberal 36.5%, Greens 10%, Democrats 2.5%, Nationals 2.5%, CDP 2.5%, One Nation 1%, Family First 1.5%, Other 2.5%. This would most likely result in two or three Western Australian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, one Greens Senator, and possibly one position determined by the allocation of preferences.
• In Tasmania: ALP 44%, Liberal 29.5%, Greens 17%, Family First 2.5%, Other 7%. This would result in three Tasmanian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one Greens Senator.
Note: For Senators to be elected, they must obtain 7.7% or more of the vote (the quota) in a State when all Senators (12 per State) are to be elected. At an election for half the Senate the quota is 14.3% and six Senators are elected from each State.
See tables in release for full analysis of state, monthly and demographic breakdown.
Respondents gave reasons for voting for their preferred party during special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research:
Some of the reasons supporters of the Liberal Party cited for their decision:
“We are still burnt from the Keating years. I’m not convinced about the team the ALP has put together.”
“Because (I’m) not a fan of the Labor Party because I’m in the army and they cut jobs — army is getting bigger and they will probably cut back.”
“Independents don’t have consistent policies. Liberals are more conservative and not union-driven.”
“I don’t want to mix the houses — they need a majority to make decisions.”
“(Because of) The Liberal’s policies. I don’t like to see a country run by unions and the Liberals are good at financial management.”
“The Liberal Party is better for the country. Whenever Labor has been in, the country has been dragged down- financially and morally.”
“I would prefer Liberals to have majority rule. They are doing a good, sound job.”
Some of the reasons supporters of the ALP cited for their decision:
“I don’t think that John Howard has done a good job. He may have made a few good decisions but he does not speak for the Australian people.”
“I believe in its (Labor’s) policies. They are more in contact with people. Howard seems to alienate himself from the common person.”
“Industrial Relations and environmental issues are being neglected and need to be rectified by Labor.”
“I don’t agree with the current Government’s policies. Currently there is no balance power.”
“We need to remove control of both houses from the Liberals. The Senate is a house of review and is not functioning effectively under control of the one party. The ALP is more interested in a fairer society and social justice.”
“I don’t agree with John Howard having control of both houses. I will never vote for Howard again.”
“I think Labor is in touch with people. John Howard has become too ‘Americanised’. I have always been a Liberal supporter until recently.”
Some of the reasons supporters of the Greens cited for their decision:
“Because I think the environment is so important. I feel we are not looking after the environment they way we should be.”
“I’m not happy with the major parties. I am pro-environment and want to send a message by not giving a major party my vote.”
“They (Greens) seem to make good common sense to me. They have some policies that would affect me that the major parties do not address.”
“I am a little bit more environmentally conscious (than before). The environment is my first and foremost concern — everything else is secondary.”
“The Greens have become a multi-policy party and I agree with their policies very strongly.”
These are the main findings of the latest Morgan Senate Poll, conducted face-to-face with:
• 8,386 electors in all electorates throughout Australia during the weekends of September/October 2006;
• 8,508 electors in all electorates throughout Australia during the weekends of November/December 2006;
• 8,676 electors in all electorates throughout Australia during the weekends of January/February 2007; and
• 8,523 electors in all electorates throughout Australia during the weekends of March/April 2007.
Respondents were asked: “If a Federal election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”
Of all electors surveyed:
• 10.9% were undecided on Senate voting intention in September/October 2006;
• 10.4% were undecided on Senate voting intention in November/December 2006;
• 9.9% were undecided on Senate voting intention in January/February 2007; and
• 10.7% were undecided on Senate voting intention in March/April 2007.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
Senate Voting Intention
Respondents were asked: “If a Federal election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”
|
Total Australia: |
L-NP |
ALP |
Greens |
Aust. Dems. |
Family First |
One Nation |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
43 |
43.5 |
2.9 |
5.3 |
n/a |
n/a |
5.3 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
44 |
36.2 |
1.7 |
10.8 |
n/a |
n/a |
7.3 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
36.5 |
37.3 |
2.2 |
8.5 |
n/a |
9.0 |
6.5 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
42 |
34.1 |
4.9 |
7.2 |
n/a |
5.6 |
6.2 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
44.7 |
35 |
7.7 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
7 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
36 |
39 |
10.5 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
36.5 |
40 |
10.5 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
36 |
42 |
10 |
4.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
32.5 |
45.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
5.5 |
Senate Vote by State
|
New South Wales: |
L-NP |
ALP |
Greens |
Aust. Dems. |
Family First |
One Nation |
CDP |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
38.9 |
46.9 |
3.4 |
4.9 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
5.9 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
41.4 |
37.2 |
2.7 |
9.6 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
9.1 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
36.6 |
38.7 |
2.2 |
7.4 |
n/a |
9.6 |
^ |
5.5 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
41.8 |
33.5 |
4.4 |
6.2 |
n/a |
5.6 |
^ |
8.5 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
44.1 |
36.4 |
7.3 |
2.2 |
0.6 |
1.9 |
^ |
7.5 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
35.5 |
40.5 |
8.5 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
36.5 |
40.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
34 |
43 |
10.5 |
4 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
31 |
46.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
Victoria: |
L-NP |
ALP |
Greens |
Aust. Dems. |
Family First |
One Nation |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
44.1 |
45 |
1.2 |
4 |
n/a |
n/a |
5.7 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
41.4 |
39.8 |
2.9 |
10.9 |
n/a |
n/a |
5 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
37.9 |
40.6 |
2.5 |
9.8 |
n/a |
4.1 |
5.5 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
39.6 |
36.8 |
6 |
7.8 |
n/a |
2.5 |
7.3 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
44.1 |
36.1 |
8.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
6.5 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
35.5 |
38.5 |
13 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
36 |
39.5 |
14.5 |
4.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
3 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
36 |
41 |
12 |
4 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
34 |
46 |
11 |
3.5 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
Queensland: |
Lib. |
Nat. |
ALP |
Greens |
Aust. Dems. |
Family First |
One
Nation |
Pauline
Hanson |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
31.5 |
14.5 |
39.4 |
3.2 |
7 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
4.4 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
35.4 |
15 |
30.3 |
2.4 |
13.2 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
3.7 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
28.5 |
9.5 |
32.7 |
2.1 |
7.8 |
n/a |
14.8 |
^ |
4.6 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
34.9 |
9.2 |
31.7 |
3.3 |
6.7 |
n/a |
10 |
^ |
4.2 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
38.3 |
6.6 |
31.7 |
5.4 |
2.2 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
^ |
9.3 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
^ |
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
30 |
7 |
39 |
9 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
5.5 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
30.5 |
7 |
40 |
8.5 |
5 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
32 |
6.5 |
41 |
7.5 |
5.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
^ |
4 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
25 |
6 |
44.5 |
7 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
South Australia: |
L-NP |
ALP |
Greens |
Aust. Dems. |
Family First |
One Nation |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993. |
45.6 |
38 |
1.6 |
9.9 |
n/a |
n/a |
4.4 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
45.8 |
32.2 |
2.1 |
14.5 |
n/a |
n/a |
5.4 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
40.5 |
32 |
2.2 |
12.4 |
n/a |
9.7 |
3.2 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
45.5 |
33.2 |
3.5 |
12.6 |
n/a |
4.6 |
0.6 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
47.9 |
35.5 |
6.6 |
2.4 |
4 |
1.1 |
2.5 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
35 |
37 |
8 |
9 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
33.5 |
41.5 |
8 |
6 |
4.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
31.5 |
44.5 |
8.5 |
5 |
5 |
0.5 |
5 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
31.5 |
47.5 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Western Australia: |
Lib. |
Nat. |
ALP |
Greens |
Aust. Dems. |
Family First |
One Nation |
CDP |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
48.4 |
1.7 |
38.3 |
5.5 |
4.1 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
2 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
45.4 |
2.1 |
34 |
5.7 |
9.4 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
3.4 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
38.4 |
1.3 |
34.7 |
5.7 |
6.4 |
n/a |
10.4 |
^ |
3.1 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
40.1 |
2.4 |
34.2 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
n/a |
7 |
^ |
4.5 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
49.3 |
0.9 |
32.5 |
8.1 |
2 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
^ |
3.8 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
37 |
2.5 |
37.5 |
11.5 |
4.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
37.5 |
2 |
37 |
9.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
38 |
3 |
40.5 |
7 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
36.5 |
2.5 |
41.5 |
10 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
2 |
|
Tasmania: |
L-NP |
ALP |
Greens |
Aust. Dems. |
Family First |
One Nation |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
36.7 |
42.7 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
n/a |
n/a |
12.1 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
42.3 |
39.1 |
8.7 |
7.1 |
n/a |
n/a |
1.6 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
33.8 |
41.6 |
5.8 |
3.9 |
n/a |
3.8 |
11.1 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
38.8 |
36.8 |
13.8 |
4.6 |
n/a |
3.3 |
2.7 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
46.1^ |
33.5 |
13.3 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
- |
3.9 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
32.5^ |
39 |
17.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
- |
7.5 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
35.5^ |
38 |
15 |
0.5 |
3 |
- |
8 |
|
January — April 2007* |
31.5^ |
46 |
14 |
- |
2 |
- |
6.5 |
^ Liberal Party only
* The January/February and March/April Tasmanian Senate results were combined due to small sample
Senate Voting Intention — March & April
| |
|
Area |
Gender |
Age |
|
|
Total |
City |
Country |
Men |
Women |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-49 |
50+ |
| |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
29 |
28.5 |
29.5 |
28.5 |
29.5 |
25.5 |
25.5 |
25 |
34 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National |
3.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total L-NP |
32.5 |
30 |
36.5 |
32 |
33 |
28 |
28 |
28.5 |
38 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ALP |
45.5 |
47.5 |
42.5 |
46.5 |
44 |
46 |
46.5 |
46.5 |
44 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Greens |
9.5 |
10.5 |
7.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
12.5 |
13.5 |
11.5 |
6 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aust. Democrats |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
3.5 |
4 |
5.5 |
3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Family First |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
One Nation |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
5.5 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
6.5 |
4.5 |
4 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
10,000 |
±1 |
±0.9 |
±0.6 |
±0.4 |
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
|
