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The latest Morgan Poll finds that primary support for Labor on the weekend after its National Conference — where Kevin Rudd detailed the ALP’s alternative IR policy — was down 1% to 51.5% (up 13.9% since the 2004 election).  Support for the Coalition on the weekend before Peter Costello’s Budget announcements was up 1% to 35.5% (down 10.9% since the 2004 election).

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote was ALP 60% (down 1%), L-NP 40% (up 1%). 

On the important question of who the electorate “think will win” the next Federal election, 55% (down 0.5%) think the ALP will win, 33% (up 3.5%) think the L-NP will win and 12% (down 3%) can’t say. 

Among the minor parties support for The Greens is 7% (up 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3% (unchanged).

If an election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won easily.

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite widespread publicity surrounding the ALP’s IR policy — and the rejection of it by big business — there has been little change in voting intention in the past week.  Coalition support was up 1% to 35.5% on the weekend after the ALP National Conference, while support for Labor was down 1% to 51.5%. 

“The ALP still holds a commanding lead on a two-party preferred basis: 60% cf. 40%.

“As Roy Morgan Qualitative Research has identified for a while, the election issue of most concern is industrial relations.  There is concern among many electors of the return to Union dominance if an ALP Government is elected.

“Other issues identified by Roy Morgan Qualitative Research are: concern, even among L-NP supporters, with the Coalition retaining control of both Houses of Government, and concern that an ALP Federal Government would control all of Australia’s Parliaments.

“A Morgan Poll on Senate voting intention, released yesterday, shows that since Kevin Rudd took over as leader of the Labor Party, ALP support in the Senate has increased markedly in all States.  This weekend the Morgan Poll will measure what effect this week's Budget and Kevin Rudd’s reply speech has had.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” 

Of all electors surveyed, 5% (unchanged) did not name a party. 

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of May 5/6, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,024 electors. 

The “face-to-face” Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

During the period:

• Prime Minister John Howard visited Tasmania in a bid to bolster the re-election chances of the Liberals’ marginal seat holders;

 

• The River Murray had its 11th consecutive month of record low in-flows;

 

• Students gathered in capital cities around the country to protest against Federal Government policies. The National Union of Students said the Federal Government has chronically under-funded Australian universities;

 

• Six Australian drug smugglers from the Bali nine began appeals against their death sentences in Indonesia; and

 

• Environment Minister, Malcolm Turnbull claims Australia is on track to meet its Kyoto greenhouse emissions targets.

 

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4162 is taken from Computer Report No. 2191

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