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Seventy-two per cent (up 8% since early January) of electors approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Opposition Leader.  Approval of the job John Howard is doing as Prime Minister is 53% (down 3%), while 42% (up 3%) disapprove (5% can’t say), a special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights (Wednesday and Thursday) finds.

Mr Rudd’s current approval rating is 33% higher than it was for previous ALP Leader Kim Beazley when the same question was asked in July 2006 and 8% above the highest approval rating (64% in mid-September 2004) for former Opposition Leader Mark Latham.

Just 17% (up 6%) of electors disapprove of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job, while 11% (down a significant 14%) can’t say whether they approve or disapprove of Mr Rudd. 

Now a higher proportion of electors (51%, up 9%) say Mr Rudd would be a better Prime Minister than Mr Howard (44%, down 6%), while 5% (down 3%) can’t say. 

In the wake of Peter Costello’s 12th Budget, 57% of electors see Mr Costello as the better Treasurer compared to 26% for Opposition Treasury spokesman Wayne Swan, however, a relatively high 17% can’t say.

As the Morgan Poll has identified for some time now, industrial relations is shaping up as the key election issue.  A higher proportion of electors say Deputy Opposition Leader and Opposition Workplace Relations spokesperson Julia Gillard (50%) would be a better Minister for Workplace Relations than the current Minister Joe Hockey (31%).  A relatively high 19% are undecided on who would make the better Minister for Workplace Relations.

Fifty-five per cent of electors consider Alexander Downer the better Foreign Affairs Minister, compared with only 28% for Robert McClelland, while 17% are undecided. 

Thirty-seven per cent of electors think Tony Abbott is a better Health Minister compared to 35% of electors who said Opposition Health spokesperson Nicola Roxon would make a better Health Minister (28% can’t say).

Gary Morgan says:

“Contrary to the early January Morgan Poll when Mr Howard was seen as the better Prime Minister, now a higher proportion of electors think Mr Rudd would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Howard (51% cf. 44%).  Mr Rudd’s approval rating is currently 72%, up 8% since early January and 19% above John Howard’s rating, which is still a respectable 53%.

“Despite Labor’s IR policy not being met with much enthusiasm from business groups, 50% of electors think Julia Gillard would make a better Minister for Workplace Relations than current Minister Joe Hockey (31%).  This is a result that bodes well for the Opposition considering IR continues to loom as the key election issue.

 “However, except for the position of Minister for Workplace Relations, Coalition Ministers (Health, Treasurer, and Foreign Affairs) all rated higher than their ALP counterparts.  In the wake of last week’s big-spending Budget, Peter Costello (57%) is considered to be the better Treasurer over Wayne Swan (26%).

 “For the ‘academics’, the special telephone Morgan Poll two-party preferred vote over the last two night’s showed the ALP at 57%, L-NP 43%, with Labor recording 49% of the primary vote, L-NP 39%, Greens 6% and Other Parties/Independents 6% — basically the same result as the Galaxy Poll conducted last weekend.  The ‘face-to-face’ Federal Vote Morgan Poll will be released later today in the daily Crikey Newsletter.”

Approval of Leaders

Prime Minister

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

Fifty-three per cent (down 3% since January 2007) approve of the job Mr Howard is doing as Prime Minister.  Mr Howard’s approval is highest with L-NP supporters (91%).  Disapproval is highest with ALP (67%) and Greens supporters (64%).

	Electors													Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 11/12	Aug 18/19	Sep 1/2	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 7/8	Nov 3/4	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30	Jul 12/13	Jan 4-7	May 16/17			The	Ind/
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	2007	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	47	47	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49	52	56	53	91	28	33	40
Disapprove	44	47	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44	42	39	42	7	67	64	50
Can't say	9	6	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7	6	5	5	2	5	3	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Approval Rating Trend for John Howard since 1996 Federal election

	Mar 16-23,	Mar 30 - Apr 6,	Apr 13-20,	Apr 27- May 5,	May 11-18,	May 26 - June 2,	Sep 15/16,	Sep 16/17,	Apr 11/12,	May 17/18,	June 2/3,	June 30/ July 1,
	1996	1996	1996	1996	1996	1996	2001	2002	2003	2003	2004	2004
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	49	54	54	57	67	67	60	52	65	65	48	55
Disapprove	13	13	16	17	15	25	23	40	28	30	45	38
Can't say	38	33	30	26	18	8	17	8	7	5	7	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
	Aug 4/5,	Aug 11/12,	Aug 18/19,	Sep 1/2,	Sep 15/16,	Sep 22/23,	Sep 29/30,	Oct 7/8,	Nov 3/4,	Sep 21/22,	Mar 29/30,	Jul 12/13,
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	58	47	47	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49	52
Disapprove	34	44	47	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44	42
Can't say	8	9	6	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Seventy-two per cent (up 8% since January 2007) of electors approve of the job Mr Rudd is doing as Opposition Leader.  Mr Rudd’s approval is highest with ALP supporters (88%) followed by Greens supporters (66%).  Interestingly, a majority (56%) of L-NP supporters approve of Mr. Rudd’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader.

	Electors											Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Sep 1/2*	Sep 15/16*	Sep 22/23*	Sep 29/30*	Oct 7/8*	Nov 3/4*	Sep 21/22^	Mar 29/30^	Jul 12/13^	Jan 4-7	May 16/17			The	Ind/
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	2007	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	58	64	55	55	58	47	47	29	39	64	72	56	88	66	66
Disapprove	30	26	33	34	30	43	42	62	49	11	17	35	5	18	11
Can't say	12	10	12	11	12	10	11	9	12	25	11	9	7	16	23
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Mark Latham was Leader of the ALP

^ Kim Beazley was Leader of the ALP

Better Prime Minister: Howard vs Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Howard and Mr Rudd.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

More electors say Mr Rudd (51%) would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Howard (44%), while 5% can’t say.  Support for Mr Rudd is highest with ALP supporters (83%) followed by Greens supporters (73%).  Support for Mr Howard as better Prime Minister is highest with L-NP supporters (92%).

	Electors						Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan	Sep	Mar	Jul	Jan	May			The	Ind/
	2005*	2005*	2006*	2006*	2007	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	57	59	61	61	50	44	92	14	18	35
Rudd	33	30	26	34	42	51	6	83	73	53
Can’t say	10	11	13	5	8	5	2	3	9	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Kim Beazley was Leader of the Opposition during this period

Approval of Ministers

Treasurer

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Peter Costello and Wayne Swan.  In your opinion, who would make the better Treasurer — Peter Costello or Wayne Swan?”

In the wake of Peter Costello’s 12th Budget, 57% of electors see Mr Costello as the better Treasurer compared to 26% for Opposition Treasury spokesman Wayne Swan, however, a relatively high 17% can’t say.

	Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 16/17			The	Ind/
	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	57	89	35	49	54
Swan	26	4	46	29	22
Undecided	17	7	19	22	24
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Foreign Affairs Minister

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Alexander Downer and Robert McClelland.  In your opinion, who would make the better Minister for Foreign Affairs — Alexander Downer or Robert McClelland?”

Fifty-five per cent of electors consider Alexander Downer the better Foreign Affairs Minister, compared with only 28% for Robert McClelland, while 17% are undecided. 

	Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 16/17			The	Ind/
	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Downer	55	81	39	44	44
McClelland	28	6	46	28	30
Undecided	17	13	15	28	26
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Health Minister

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Tony Abbott and Nicola Roxon.  In your opinion, who would make the better Minister for Health — Tony Abbott or Nicola Roxon?”

Thirty-seven per cent of electors think Tony Abbott is a better Health Minister compared to 35% of electors who said Opposition Health spokesperson Nicola Roxon would make a better Health Minister (28% can’t say).

	Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 16/17			The	Ind/
	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Abbott	37	62	21	35	22
Roxon	35	12	57	39	30
Undecided	28	26	22	26	48
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Workplace Minister

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Joe Hockey and Julia Gillard.  In your opinion, who would make the better Minister for Workplace Relations — Joe Hockey or Julia Gillard?”

As the Morgan Poll has identified for some time now, industrial relations is shaping up as the key election issue.  A higher proportion of electors say Deputy Opposition Leader and Opposition Workplace Relations spokesperson Julia Gillard (50%) would be a better Minister for Workplace Relations than the current Minister Joe Hockey (31%).  A relatively high 19% are undecided on who would make the better Minister for Workplace Relations.

	Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 16/17			The	Ind/
	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Hockey	31	61	13	21	21
Gillard	50	21	75	46	51
Undecided	19	18	12	33	28
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the nights of May 16/17, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross section of 582 electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                 Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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