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The latest Morgan Poll finds that primary support for the ALP is steady at 51%, while support for the Coalition Government is down 0.5% to 35.5%.

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 60% (up 0.5%), L-NP 40% (down 0.5%). 

On the important question of who the electorate “think will win” the next Federal election, 55% (up 6%) think the ALP will win, 32% (down 6%) think the L-NP will win and 13% (unchanged) can’t say. 

Among the minor parties support for The Greens is 8% (unchanged), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 1% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (up 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2% (unchanged).

If an election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won easily.

Gary Morgan says:

“There has been very little change in support for both Liberal and Labor in the past week.  Primary support for the ALP is 51%, while support for the Coalition is 35.5%.  On a two-party preferred basis Labor is 20% ahead: ALP 60%, L-NP 40%.

“Following a jump in those who ‘think the L-NP will win the next election’ on the weekend after Peter Costello delivered his 12th budget, the figures have returned to pre-budget levels: ALP 55%, L-NP 32% (13% can’t say).

“Morgan Poll Qualitative Research released this week found that the resonating issue for L-NP supporters is the economy, while for ALP supporters it is industrial relations — these two issues will largely shape election campaigning.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” 

Of all electors surveyed, 4% (down 0.5%) did not name a party. 

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of May 19/20, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 899 electors. 

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research was conducted during May, in which electors gave reasons for supporting their preferred Party:

There is a deep level of scepticism among Liberal supporters about Labor’s ability to govern the country, largely based on past events:

“I am a little bit sceptical about the way things have gone when Labor has been in power previously.”

“Liberals are a safer bet than Labor but I don't have a lot of faith in either of them to be honest.”

“Labor is not strong enough — I am not confident in their leader.”

“I don’t like Rudd and I don’t want Labor in power on both a State and Federal level.  Alexander Downer has done a good job in our area.”

“The Liberals are sensible!  They’re not letting the unions rule them.”

“Anybody except ALP!”

A number of Liberal supporters cited the stability of the party as a major factor in their decision:

“I trust the Liberals — they are going alright and they’ll keep things stable. ALP policies are far fetched.”

“Economy, employment, and stability is what matters.”

“The Liberal Party is far more stable.”

“I prefer stability and the Liberal Party provides that.”

“Low interest rates is what matters and they’ve been stable enough.”

Among those who said they will Labor — including electors who have previously voted Liberal — there is much displeasure with how a wide range of issues are currently being handled:

“I’m a Liberal voter by nature, but they have not been addressing key issues. I don’t mind not getting tax cuts though!”

“I come from a Liberal family, but I would like to see Labor have a go — I don’t mind Kevin Rudd.”

“I used to vote Liberal, but I don’t agree with the IR laws, gun control, and the Iraq war.”

“I’m tired of Liberal lies and partial truths, particularly related to security issues. There is arrogance among the leadership and I don’t like being treated like an idiot.”

“Time’s up! Howard is too similar to Bush.”

Not surprisingly, the Government’s controversial industrial relations laws remain a source of much discontent among Labor supporters:

“Because of what they’re doing to young people in the workplace with IR laws — they’re treated like rubbish.”

“The Liberals have been in too long and it is about time they were removed, especially after the IR laws.”

“I will lose holiday pay, shift loading, etc, if Liberals get in again.”

“The IR laws have made it hard for workers.”

“IR laws is one reason why I’ll vote Labor.  Benefits are being taken away from working man.  Do not like the way Howard treats war veterans — poor attitude to these people.”

“Because l think that the Liberals have screwed general workers for their entitlements and penalty rates.”

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The “face-to-face” Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week.

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4169 is taken from Computer Report No. 2194

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