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On the weekend after the Electrical Trades Union Victorian Secretary Dean Mighell was forced to resign from the Labor Party amid evidence of heavy handed tactics, ALP primary support is up 2% to 51%, while support for the Coalition Government is up 0.5% to 38%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the ALP holds a comfortable lead of 16% on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 58% (up 0.5%), L-NP 42% (down 0.5%).

On the important question of who the electorate “think will win” the next Federal election, 59% (up 4%) think the ALP will win, 28.5% (down 4.5%) think the L-NP will win and 12.5% (up 0.5%) can’t say.

Among the minor parties support for The Greens is 5.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2.5% (down 0.5%).

If an election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won easily.

Gary Morgan says:

“On the weekend after Kevin Rudd made Dean Mighell, the Electrical Trades Union Victorian Secretary, resign from the Labor Party after evidence of heavy handed union tactics, ALP primary support is up 2% to 51%, while support for the Coalition Government is up 0.5% to 38%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

“Over the last few months (since Kevin Rudd was elected ALP Leader) the Morgan Poll has shown the ALP would win a Federal election with a landslide despite small ups and downs.

“However a lot can happen between now and the Federal election. The electorate is not yet in election mode when we can expect IR, concerns regarding interest rates and economic stability to be the important reasons why electors decide how they vote - many as they walk into a booth.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”

Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 2%) did not name a party.

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of June 2/3, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 909 electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

During the period:

• The Electrical Trades Union Victorian Secretary, Dean Mighell was forced to resign from the Australian Labor Party after he was caught on tape swearing and boasting about securing unnecessary pay rises from big businesses.

 

• Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd’s chief of staff, Simon Bank resigned. David Epstein is expected to take over the role.

• Indonesia issued a formal protest to Australia about the treatment of Jakarta’s Governor Sutiyoso during an official visit to New South Wales. Mr Sutiyoso was served a summons to appear at the coronial inquiry into the death of five Australian-based journalists killed in Balibo in 1975.

 

• Western Australian Liberal Senator, Ian Campbell officially resigned from the Federal Parliament.

• A new series of shocking anti-smoking advertisements were released on TV after claims that anti-smoking campaigns are failing to deter young people from smoking.

 

• Peter Shergold, Head of the Prime Minister’s task force on emissions trading said the price of power and petrol will rise if the Government goes ahead with the carbon trading scheme.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The “face-to-face” Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week.

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4174 is taken from Computer Report No. 2197

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