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Fifty per cent of Australian electors think John Howard would be better at managing Australia’s economy, 35% think Kevin Rudd would be better, while 6% said “Equal/Neither” and 9% were undecided, a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted late last week finds.

Similarly, a higher proportion of voters said Mr Howard would be better at minimising tax than Mr Rudd (42% cf. 34%).

However, Mr Rudd came out on top on the issues on: managing a fair workplace (59% cf. 29%); managing a productive workplace (49% cf. 39%); looking after families needs (50% cf. 36%); and honesty and trustworthiness (44% cf. 29%).  In September 2004, Mr Howard was seen as more honest and trustworthy than then ALP Leader Mark Latham (36% cf. 33%).

While today electors are evenly divided on who they trust more to keep Australia safe and secure (Mr Howard and Mr Rudd both 41%), in September 2004 Mr Howard had a significant lead over Mr Latham (56% cf. 28%).

Gary Morgan says:

“This latest Morgan Poll shows there are clear differences in the images of John Howard and Kevin Rudd. Howard leads on the issue of ‘managing the economy’ and ‘minimising the tax you pay’, while Rudd leads on ‘looking after families needs’, ‘a fairer workplace’, ‘a productive workplace’, and being ‘more honest and trustworthy’.

“What should concern the Coalition is that there has been a significant shift since 2004 on the issue of honesty and trustworthiness.  In September 2004 Howard led Latham (36% cf. 33%), while today Rudd is ahead of Howard 44% to 29%.

“For the ‘academics’, the special telephone Morgan Poll two-party preferred vote showed the ALP at 55%, L-NP 45%, with Labor recording 46% of the primary vote, L-NP 40%, Greens 7.5% and Other Parties/Independents 6.5%.”

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094  Home +61 3 9419 3242

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093  Home +61 3 9817 3066

Who is more honest and trustworthy?	Howard vs. Latham September 2004 (sample 1,010 electors)	Howard vs. Rudd June 2007 (sample 556 electors)
Howard	36	29
Latham/Rudd	33	44
Equal/Neither	16	21
Can’t Say	15	6
Total	100	100

Who do you trust more to keep Australia safe and secure?	September 2004	June 2007
Howard	56	41
Latham/Rudd	28	41
Equal/Neither	7	11
Can’t Say	9	7
Total	100	100

Who would be better at managing Australia’s economy?	September 2004	June 2007
Howard	63	50
Latham/Rudd	21	35
Equal/Neither	5	6
Can’t Say	11	9
Total	100	100

Who would be better at looking after your family’s needs?	September 2004	June 2007
Howard	43	36
Latham/Rudd	44	50
Equal/Neither	6	6
Can’t Say	7	8
Total	100	100

Who would be best for minimising the tax you pay?	September 2004	June 2007
Howard	40	42
Latham/Rudd	33	34
Equal/Neither	11	10
Can’t Say	16	14
Total	100	100

Note: Questions relating to “Managing a fair workplace” and “Managing a productive workplace” were not asked in September 2004.

Electors were asked: “Who is more honest and trustworthy: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

	All Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 5-7, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens^	Ind/Other^
	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	29	59	8	16	14
Rudd	44	10	72	68	42
Equal/Neither	21	25	18	14	29
Can't say	6	6	2	2	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100

^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	All Electors	Analysis by Sex and Age
	June 5-7, 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	29	30	28	27	18	34	31
Rudd	44	43	44	46	47	36	47
Equal/Neither	21	23	20	19	30	23	18
Can't say	6	4	8	8	5	7	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, do you trust more to keep Australia safe and secure: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

	All Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 5-7, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens^	Ind/Other^
	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	41	80	13	22	38
Rudd	41	9	68	60	38
Equal/Neither	11	8	13	13	12
Can't say	7	3	6	5	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100

^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	All Electors	Analysis by Sex and Age
	June 5-7, 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	41	44	38	46	32	49	37
Rudd	41	42	41	43	43	37	44
Equal/Neither	11	9	13	8	17	9	11
Can't say	7	5	8	3	8	5	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, would be better at managing Australia’s economy: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

	All Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 5-7, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens^	Ind/Other^
	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	50	88	23	32	48
Rudd	35	6	61	45	34
Equal/Neither	6	3	6	11	9
Can't say	9	3	10	12	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100

^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	All Electors	Analysis by Sex and Age
	June 5-7, 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	50	57	44	44	44	56	50
Rudd	35	30	39	40	37	28	37
Equal/Neither	6	6	6	5	11	7	4
Can't say	9	7	11	11	8	9	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, would be better at looking after your family's needs: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

	All Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 5-7, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens^	Ind/Other^
	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	36	75	8	23	29
Rudd	50	12	84	62	45
Equal/Neither	6	6	4	8	13
Can't say	8	7	4	7	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100

^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	All Electors	Analysis by Sex and Age
	June 5-7, 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	36	39	34	30	27	39	39
Rudd	50	50	50	60	51	45	50
Equal/Neither	6	6	7	2	13	9	4
Can't say	8	5	9	8	9	7	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, would be best for minimising the tax you pay: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

	All Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 5-7, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens^	Ind/Other^
	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	42	75	17	42	27
Rudd	34	7	60	37	38
Equal/Neither	10	7	11	8	12
Can't say	14	11	12	13	23
Total	100	100	100	100	100

^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	All Electors	Analysis by Sex and Age
	June 5-7, 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	42	45	38	24	39	48	42
Rudd	34	32	36	49	32	30	35
Equal/Neither	10	12	8	6	14	10	9
Can't say	14	11	18	21	15	12	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, would be better for managing a productive workplace: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

	All Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 5-7, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens^	Ind/Other^
	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	39	77	13	24	36
Rudd	49	13	78	66	46
Equal/Neither	5	4	5	3	9
Can't say	7	6	4	7	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100

^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	All Electors	Analysis by Sex and Age
	June 5-7, 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	39	47	32	25	31	49	40
Rudd	49	44	53	67	49	41	49
Equal/Neither	5	5	5	3	8	6	3
Can't say	7	4	10	5	12	4	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, would be better for managing a fair workplace: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

	All Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 5-7, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens^	Ind/Other^
	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	29	65	4	11	20
Rudd	59	23	91	75	58
Equal/Neither	4	4	2	7	16
Can't say	8	8	3	7	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100

^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	All Electors	Analysis by Sex and Age
	June 5-7, 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	29	34	25	14	19	35	32
Rudd	59	59	59	73	66	52	57
Equal/Neither	4	3	5	5	5	7	3
Can't say	8	4	11	8	10	6	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted on the nights of June 5-7, 2007, with 556 Australian electors.

For the Academics

All telephone Morgan Polls ask voting intention questions.  Analysis of Roy Morgan ‘face-to-face’ surveys shows that significantly more non-telephone owners say they will vote ALP than L-NP.  For this reason telephone surveys underestimate the “two-party” ALP vote by about 1%.  The following table shows the results of the most recent telephone Morgan Polls:

Primary Voting Intention

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Face-to-Face
	May 16-17, 2007 (sample 582 electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556 electors)	June 2-3, 2007 (sample 909 electors)
	%	%	%
L-NP	39	40	38
ALP	49	46	51
Greens	6	7.5	5.5
Independents/ Others	6	6.5	5.5
Total	100	100	100

Two-Party Preferred

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Face-to-Face
	May 16-17, 2007 (sample 582 electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556 electors)	June 2-3, 2007 (sample 909 electors)
	%	%	%
L-NP	43	45	42
ALP	57	55	58
Total	100	100	100

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The (telephone) Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The (telephone) Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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