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A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights finds the ALP is 10% ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis: 55% to 45%.  This is the same two-party result as last week’s telephone Morgan Poll.

In the past week, Labor’s primary vote has fallen 2.5% from 46% to 43.5% while the Coalition’s vote has remained steady at 40%.  The Greens vote has increased 2% from 7.5% to 9.5%.

Gary Morgan says:

“This latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention identifies a reduction in the ALP primary vote over the last three special telephone Morgan Polls: from 49% on May 16-17, to 46% on June 5-7 and 43.5% over the last two nights.  In other words, there has been a softening in the ALP vote.

“However, on a two-party preferred basis, the Howard Government still trails by 10 percentage points.”

Primary Voting Intention

		Telephone Morgan Poll			Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17, 2007 (sample 582 electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556 electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	June 2-3, 2007 (sample 909 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	46.4	39	40	40	38
ALP	37.6	49	46	43.5	51
Greens	7.2	6	7.5	9.5	5.5
Independents/ Others	8.8	6	6.5	7	5.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100

Two-Party Preferred

		Telephone Morgan Poll			Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17, 2007 (sample 582 electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556 electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	June 2-3, 2007 (sample 909 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	52.7	43	45	45	42
ALP	47.3	57	55	55	58
Total	100	100	100	100	100

These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted on the nights of June 13/14, 2007, with 614 Australian electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094  Home +61 3 9419 3242

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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