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Soft ALP Voters Hold The Key To The Federal Election
In-depth analysis of the special telephone Morgan Poll released earlier this week finds the biggest difference between soft ALP voters and strong ALP voters is on the issue of “managing the economy”. Thirty-four per cent of soft ALP voters think Prime Minister John Howard would be better at managing Australia’s economy, while 52% said Kevin Rudd would be better (2% said “Equal/Neither” and 12% were undecided). Fourteen per cent of strong ALP voters think Prime Minister John Howard would be better at managing Australia’s economy, while 69% said Kevin Rudd would be better (10% said “Equal/Neither” and 7% were undecided). Of all ALP supporters, 23% said Mr Howard, 61% said Mr Rudd (6% “Equal/Neither” and 10% undecided). When taking into account all electors, 50% said Mr Howard, 35% said Mr Rudd (6% “Equal/Neither” and 9% undecided). On all other issues (honesty and trust; safety and security; looking after the needs of families; minimising tax; managing a productive workplace; and managing a fair workplace) there was relatively little difference between soft ALP voters and strong ALP voters. Soft ALP voters are defined as those who said Australia is “heading in the right direction” as well as saying they would vote Labor if an election were held today. Strong ALP voters are defined as those who said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction” as well as saying they would vote Labor if an election were held today. Gary Morgan says:
These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted on the nights of June 5-7, 2007, with 556 Australian electors. Electors were asked: “Who is more honest and trustworthy: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”
^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, do you trust more to keep Australia safe and secure: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”
^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, would be better at managing Australia’s economy: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”
^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, would be better at looking after your family's needs: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”
^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, would be best for minimising the tax you pay: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”
^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, would be better for managing a productive workplace: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”
^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution Electors were asked: “Who, if elected Prime Minster, would be better for managing a fair workplace: Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”
^ Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution For further information: Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Home +61 3 9419 3242 Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election. The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association. No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification. |
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