IR Reforms Still Driving Labor Support; Liberal Voters Afraid Of Union Dominance
| Finding No. 4179 -
June 18, 2007 |
The next Morgan Poll Federal Vote, taken over the weekends of June 9/10 and 16/17, will be released this Friday. The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll Federal Vote, taken over the weekend of June 2/3, found that primary support for the Coalition was up 0.5% to 38%. Primary support for Labor was up 2% to 51%, resulting in a two-party preferred vote of L-NP 42%, ALP 58%.
A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted last week, June 13/14, found the ALP 10% ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis: 55% to 45%. This is the same two-party result as the previous week’s (June 5-7) telephone Morgan Poll.
Special Morgan Poll Qualitative Research conducted on June 9/10 looked at reasons why electors said that they would vote for each party:
• A large number of Liberal Party supporters continue to cite economic management as the main reason for their support;
• Many respondents say they will vote for the Liberal Party because the Labor Party is controlled by the unions;
• A significant proportion of ALP supporters said they intend to vote for Labor because John Howard’s leadership;
• The Government’s controversial industrial relations laws are often given by Labor supporters as a reason for supporting the ALP; and
• The most prevalent reason Greens supporters gave for their support of the party was their environmental policies.
Gary Morgan says:
“The central issues behind the support for the major parties remain the same. As the April Federal Roy Morgan Qualitative Research showed, the Howard Government’s superior economic credentials continue to cited by many electors as reason for their support of the Liberal Party.
“On the other hand, a significant proportion of people who say they support the Labor Party continue to highlight the Government’s controversial WorkChoices legislation as reason for their support.
“This shows that economy, and the related industrial relations debate, will be the important issues when the country goes to the polls later in the year.
Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research was conducted over the weekend of June 9-10, in which electors gave reasons for supporting their preferred Party:
A large number of Liberal Party supporters continue to cite economic management as the main reason for their support:
“John Howard got us out of debt, changed the gun laws and has done a great job for the Australian economy.”
“I believe in the Liberal Party’s economic policies.”
“We’re not now in the huge debt that the Labor Party left us in before the Liberal Party took over.”
“The Government has offered us stability, low unemployment and low interest rates.”
“We had a mortgage on the house when Labor was in power and we nearly lost the house.”
“The Liberals have done a lot for Australia. We’ve done well globally, and we’re very secure financially.”
“They’re more trustworthy financially; they’re better at keeping interest rates down.”
“Economically, the Government has done a great job, but I’m not happy with their foreign policy. I’m not happy about the war.”
Many respondents say they will vote for the Liberal Party because the Labor Party is controlled by the unions:
“My opinion is that the unions have too much of a say under a Labor Government.”
“I’m not happy with the unions — I’ve had bad experience even though I used to be in a union. My union was ineffective; in my field, work conditions were reduced with their blessings.”
“I don’t like the Labor Party; unions obviously still have an influence. They do not look after small business.
“The Liberals have better ideas for keeping unions where they should be.”
“I believe the Liberals are doing a great job with the economy. I am not a unionist. My father lost a big contract because of the unions. I have worked hard and have good wages.”
“We’ll have problems with the unions if Labor is in power.”
A significant proportion of ALP supporters said they intend to vote for Labor because John Howard’s leadership:
“John Howard is a liar and a backflipper.”
“I can’t stand the country being run by a corrupt PM.”
“I have never liked the Liberal puppets — Howard is Bush’s puppet.”
“John Howard is too American.”
“I think John Howard should never have gained leadership of 21 million people — he never achieved anything and he took Labor’s ideas.
“I despise John Howard. His policies of fear and lies, as well as Iraq.
“Because I wouldn’t trust John Howard as far as I could throw him; he’s a liar.”
The Government’s controversial industrial relations laws are often given by Labor supporters as a reason for supporting the ALP:
“The Government’s industrial relations policies are not fair and biased toward the employer.”
“Labor’s industrial relations policies are more family-friendly.”
“I believe the Liberals have been in power for too long and they have overstepped the boundaries. I want the workplace agreements changed.”
“I don’t like the IR legislation — the ALP has a social conscience, not like the Liberals who don’t care.”
“Labor in Government would benefit me more — the Liberals really stuffed up with all this work relations business.”
“The Government’s IR laws give us no security.”
The most prevalent reason Greens supporters gave for their support of the party was their environmental policies:
“John Howard is not doing enough on climate change.”
“I don’t believe the two major parties are addressing environmental issues”.
“I don’t like Howard, and I like the Greens’ social and environmental policies.”
“The Greens have a holistic, long-term vision of the economy including environmental and social issues.”
“I don’t like the Liberal Party and I approve of the Greens policies.”
“Environment, education, lies, deception, born-to-rule attitude, tiredness.”
This special Roy Morgan qualitative research was conducted June 9/10, 2007, with Australian electors.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine: Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.
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