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The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll finds that primary support for the ALP is down 3% to 48%, while support for the Coalition Government is down 1% to 37%.  With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 57.5% (down 0.5%), L-NP 42.5% (up 0.5%). 

On the important question of who the electorate “think will win” the next Federal election, 50% (down 9%) think the ALP will win, 35.5% (up 7%) think the L-NP will win and 14.5% (up 2%) can’t say. 

Among the minor parties support for The Greens is 6.5% (up 1%), Family First 2% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (up 1%), One Nation 1% (unchanged), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (up 1.5%).

Currently, 51.5% of electors think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, 33.5% in the “wrong direction” and 15% are undecided. 

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Morgan Poll finds support for both major parties is down from the last face-to-face Morgan Poll a fortnight ago: ALP down 3% to 48% and L-NP down 1% to 37%.  On a two-party preferred basis Labor has a significant 15% lead; ALP 57.5%, LNP 42.5%.

“However, there has been a significant fall in the number of electors who think the ALP will be successful at the next Federal election.  Now 50% (down 9%) think Labor will win the next election, L-NP 35.5% (up 7%) while 14.5% (up 2%) are undecided.

“Despite more electors thinking the ALP will win, 51.5% of electors think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, 33.5% in the “wrong direction” and 15% are undecided. 

“With the current focus on the economic credentials of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party, the Coalition Government is targeting swinging voters that are not yet convinced that the ALP will be able to maintain the strong economic results that John Howard and Peter Costello have posted in recent times. 

“Morgan Poll Qualitative Research has identified for some time that the economic credentials of the Coalition is a significant factor in the decision making of many electors while the industrial relations reforms is what is worrying many ALP supporters.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”

Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,723 electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan

Office (03) 9224 5213

Mobile 0411 129 094

Home (03) 9419 3242

During the period:

• China released a climate change strategy which included a 20 per cent reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP in the next three years.

• Tony Mokbel was apprehended in Athens. Mokbel disappeared while on bail near the end of his trial for cocaine importation, just over a year ago. Police had offered a $1 million reward for any information leading to his whereabouts.

• The Dalai Lama toured Australia where he met with Prime Minister John Howard and Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd.

• Australia’s worst rail crash in 30 years occurred in Kerang, Victoria. During the accident a semi-trailer ploughed into a passenger train at a level crossing, cutting the train in two, killing 11 and injuring dozens more.

• The Australian Bureau of Statistics announced that the value of lending for housing increased by more than 2 per cent in April to $21 billion. More money was borrowed for owner-occupier houses or flats, while fewer people built or purchased new homes.

• The Group of Eight (G8) summit was held in Germany. Leaders of the G8 club of wealthy nations agreed on a goal of halving dangerous greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 in a pact against global warming.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The “face-to-face” Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week.

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4180 is taken from Computer Report No. 2199

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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