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A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over two nights last week (July 4/5) finds the ALP is 18% ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis: 59% to 41%. 

Labor’s primary vote is now 49%, L-NP 35%, Greens 7% and Independent/Others a high 9%.

Of all electors surveyed, 4% did not name a party.

Gary Morgan says:

"On Friday we released our face-to-face Morgan Poll (ALP 59%, LNP 41%). Today we release our telephone Morgan Poll conducted late last week (ALP 59%, LNP 41%).  Both have the ALP winning and well in front.

"There is no doubt the L-NP are in trouble.  However, a lot can happen between now and the election.  Our surveys show most electors think 'things in Australia are heading in the right direction' and the July Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is up 4.5 to a very high 126.8.

"It is indeed a 'strange' situation. If my memory is correct a similar situation as John Major was confronted with in the 1992 UK General Election - which he won!  In 1992 all major UK polls were very wrong!

"Only in 2001 have we (Roy Morgan) polled just before a UK General Election.  We were then most accurate in predicting the Labour lead.

"The discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

"The following included comment says it all: 'I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last 5 years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, ie the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than NewsPoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than NewsPoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than NewsPoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s (comment by Alan H — July 8, 2007?'"

These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted on the nights of July 4/5, 2007, with 611 Australian electors.

Primary Voting Intention

		Telephone Morgan Poll				Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17, 2007 (sample 582 electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556 electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	July 4/5, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 (sample 1,690 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	46.4	39	40	40	35	36.5
ALP	37.6	49	46	43.5	49	50.5
Greens	7.2	6	7.5	9.5	7	7
Independents/ Others	8.8	6	6.5	7	9	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

Two-Party Preferred

		Telephone Morgan Poll				Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17,  2007 (sample 582  electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556  electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	July 4/5, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 (sample 1,690 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	52.7	43	45	45	41	41
ALP	47.3	57	55	55	59	59
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094  Home +61 3 9419 3242

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International.  No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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