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A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (July 11/12) finds the ALP is 15% ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 57.5% (down 1.5%), L-NP 42.5% (up 1.5%). 

Labor’s primary vote is now 47.5% (down 1.5%), L-NP 37.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 9% (up 2%) and Independent/Others 6% (down 3%).

Of all electors surveyed, a low 3.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Gary Morgan says:

“The Morgan Poll has had the Rudd ALP Opposition in a clear ‘winning position’ in every Morgan Poll from immediately after Rudd was elected ALP leader in December.

 “The latest telephone Morgan Poll (conducted over the last two nights) shows the L-NP vote at 37.5% (up 2.5% in a week) with the two-party preferred L-NP vote up 1.5% to 42.5%.  However, the ALP would win a Federal election if held today.

“For the second week the ‘undecided’ or ‘refused to vote’ was low (3.5%, down 0.5%).  Newspoll said this week it was 8%!

“Australia is lucky that we publish ‘voting intention’ more frequently than all other public opinion polls and Australians must be relieved they have, in addition to the traditional Australian media, an Internet news media which keeps everyone quickly, accurately and independently informed.

“All pollsters know voting intention is the real guide to how electors will vote.  They also know it is hard or nearly impossible to measure how ‘preferences’ will be allocated at the ballot.  We (the Morgan Poll) only ask approval ratings occasionally because Margaret Thatcher, John Major, Ronald Reagan and Helen Clark were all behind as the ‘preferred’ leader with low approval ratings a few months before being elected!

“All poll watchers need to read or re-read what I wrote on Wednesday, namely: ‘Can the Coalition win the Federal Election? The answer is...’”

These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted over the last two nights (July 11/12, 2007) with 600 Australian electors.

Primary Voting Intention

		Telephone Morgan Poll					Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17, 2007 (sample 582 electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556 electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	July 4/5, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	July 11/12, 2007 (sample 600 electors)	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 (sample 1,690 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	46.4	39	40	40	35	37.5	36.5
ALP	37.6	49	46	43.5	49	47.5	50.5
Greens	7.2	6	7.5	9.5	7	9	7
Independents/ Others	8.8	6	6.5	7	9	6	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Two-Party Preferred

		Telephone Morgan Poll					Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17,  2007 (sample 582  electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556  electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	July 4/5, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	July 11/12, 2007 (sample 600 electors)	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 (sample 1,690 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	52.7	43	45	45	41	42.5	41
ALP	47.3	57	55	55	59	57.5	59
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094  Home +61 3 9419 3242

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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