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The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll finds that primary support for the Coalition Government is up 4.5% to 40.5%.  Primary support for the ALP is down 3% to 47.5%.

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 55% (down 4%), L-NP 45% (up 4%). 

If an election had been held during the last fortnight the ALP would have won.

On the important question of who the electorate “think will win” the next Federal election, 52% (up 2%) think the ALP will win, 34.5% (down 2.5%) think the L-NP will win and 13.5% (up 0.5%) can’t say. 

Among the minor parties support for The Greens is 5.5% (down 1.5%), Family First 2% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (up 1%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3% (down 0.5%).

Now, 55.5% (up 4%) of electors think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, 30% (down 1%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” and 14.5% (down 3%) are undecided.

Currently, 19.5% (down 1%) of all electors are Soft ALP voters: Soft ALP voters are defined as those who said Australia is “heading in the right direction” as well as saying they would vote Labor if an election were held today.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative research, released earlier this week, found a large number of Liberal Party supporters continue to refer to wanting a stable, experienced Government as the main reason for their support, whereas a significant proportion of ALP supporters said they intend to vote for Labor because they are dissatisfied with the industrial relations laws, the War in Iraq, with many saying it is ‘time for a change’.

Gary Morgan says:

“The first Australia-wide ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll after Brisbane Doctor Mohammed Haneef was taken into custody finds the L-NP primary vote up 4.5% to 40.5%.  ALP support is down 3% to 47.5%.  The two-party preferred gap closed 8% to 10%: ALP 55%, L-NP 45% — the closest the two parties have been in the face-to-face Morgan Poll since late January.

“Haneef was taken into custody on July 2 in connection with two failed terror plots in the UK.  Haneef was eventually charged on July 14 with providing support to a terrorist group.

“The swing back to the L-NP is not surprising as historically the Morgan Poll has shown that when security-related events get significant press coverage (Tampa) electors rally behind the incumbent Government.

 “However, despite the increase in support for the L-NP, 52% (up 2%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election compared to 34.5% (down 2.5%) who think the Coalition will win.

“If an election had been held during the last fortnight the ALP would have won.

“The next Morgan Poll will show the impact of the latest Howard and Costello ‘saga’ that was triggered by Costello’s remarks in a soon-to-be published biography on the Prime Minister.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” 

Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party. 

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of July 7/8 and 14/15, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,780 electors. 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213     Mobile +61 411 129 094      Home +61 3 9419 3242

During the period:

• Police in Britain arrested two more people in connection with the failed car bomb attacks in London and Glasgow, which occurred ahead of the anniversary of the July 7, 2005, suicide bombings in London.

• New South Wales and Victoria outlawed smoking indoors, pushing pubs and clubs to offer a wider array of services as they face the prospect of massive revenue losses.

 

• The Federal Government was warned that another interest rate rise before this year's election will pose a serious threat to families and the economy.

 

• BBC journalist Alan Johnston was freed after being held by Islamic militants for 16 weeks.

• Pop stars, politicians and Hollywood celebrities drummed home the dangers of global warming and urged people to go green as the Live Earth series of concerts spanning the globe came to an end.

 

• Federal politicians officially entered the 21st century with the launch of a new political wing on social networking website MySpace. The move was seen as a key tactic in connecting with Australia's younger voters.

• Leaks of a US intelligence report showed Al Qaeda's operating capabilities are at their strongest since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, despite almost six years of military action.

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	Interviewing Dates
	May 12/13	May 19/20	May 26/27	June 2/3	June 9/10 & 16/17	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1	July 7/8 & 14/15
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	49	50	50.5	48.5	51.5	51.5	55.5
Wrong direction	31	34	33	32.5	33.5	31	30
Can’t say	20	16	16.5	19	15	17.5	14.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

VOTING STRENGTH

	Interviewing Dates
	May 12/13	May 19/20	May 26/27	June 2/3	June 9/10 & 16/17	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1	July 7/8 & 14/15
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Strong L-NP voters	31	31	32	32	32.5	31	36
Soft L-NP voters	5	4.5	5.5	6	4.5	5	4.5
Total L-NP voters	36	35.5	37.5	38	37	36	40.5
Soft ALP voters	20.5	20.5	17.5	19	19	20.5	19.5
Strong ALP voters	30.5	30.5	31.5	32	29	30	28
Total ALP voters	51	51	49	51	48	50.5	47.5
Greens voters	8	8	6	5.5	6.5	7	5.5
Ind./Other voters	5	5.5	7.5	5.5	8.5	7	6.5
Total	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*
Did not name a party	4.5	4	3	5	4.5	4.5	5

* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party. 

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	55	31.5	13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	59	29	12
May 14/15, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	61	27	12
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	60	27	13
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	61.5	26	12.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	61.5	24.5	14
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	61	24.5	14.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005	64	23.5	12.5
September 10/11, 2005	60.5	27	12.5
September 17/18, 2005	66	21.5	12.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	65	24	11
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	65	23.5	11.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	60	26.5	13.5
November 5/6, 2005	55	32.5	12.5
November 12/13, 2005	61	27.5	11.5
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	50	36.5	13.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	54.5	33	12.5
December 17/18, 2005	58	28	14
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	59	27	14
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	65	25	10
February 4/5, 2006	62	27	11
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	60	27	13
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	66	23	11
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006	69	20.5	10.5
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	64.5	25	10.5
April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006	62	26.5	11.5
April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	63.5	24.5	12
May 6/7, 2006	60.5	28	11.5
May 13/14, 2006	70	20	10
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006	64.5	22	13.5
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006	61.5	26.5	12
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006	58.5	28.5	13
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006	56.5	30	13.5
July 15/16, 2006	61	28	11
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	59.5	29	11.5
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006	58.5	28	13.5
August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006	59.5	28.5	12
September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006	58	30	12
September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006	59.5	27.5	13
September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006	58.5	28	13.5
October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006	58.5	28.5	13
October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006	59.5	28.5	12
November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	58	29.5	12.5
November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006	58	28.5	13.5
December 9/10, 2006	46	39.5	14.5
December 16/17, 2006	45.5	41	13.5
January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007	48	38.5	13.5
January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007	47.5	38.5	14
February 3/4, 2007	43	44	13
February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007	40	45.5	14.5
February 23/24, 2007	31.5	52.5	16
March 3/4, 2007	39.5	47.5	13
March 10/11, 2007	36	50	14
March 17/18, 2007	30.5	54.5	15
March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007	31	56.5	12.5
April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007	31.5	55	13.5
April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007	29.5	55.5	15
May 5/6, 2007	33	55	12
May 12/13, 2007	38	49	13
May 19/20, 2007	32	55	13
May 26/27, 2007	33	55	12
June 2/3, 2007	28.5	59	12.5
June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007	35.5	50	14.5
June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007	37	50	13
July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007	34.5	52	13.5

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem.#	The Greens	Family First#	One Nation#	Ind./ Others
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	40.5 (1.5)	43	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	42 (2)	40	2	8.5	1.5	1	5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	42(2.5)	42.5	1.5	8	1.5	1	3.5
May 14/15, 2005	43(1.5)	41	1.5	8	2	0.5	4
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	45 (2)	39	1.5	7.5	1.5	0.5	5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	43.5 (1.5)	39.5	1.5	7.5	2	1.5	4.5
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	42 (2.5)	39.5	2	9	2.5	1	4
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	42.5 (2)	40.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1	4.5
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	41.5 (2.5)	38.5	2.5	8	1.5	2	6
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	41.5 (4)	42	2	7.5	2	1	4
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	39 (2.5)	41.5	2	8	3	1.5	5
August 27/28 & September 3/4	44 (3.5)	37	1.5	8.5	3	1	5
September 10/11, 2005	39.5 (3)	41.5	1.5	7	3	0.5	7
September 17/18, 2005	44 (2.5)	34.5	2.5	10	2	1.5	5.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	42 (3.5)	38.5	2.5	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	39.5 (2.5)	41.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	39 (3.5)	41	2.5	9.5	2	1	5
November 5/6, 2005	38.5 (3)	43	1.5	9.5	2	1	4.5
November 12/13, 2005	43.5 (3)	38	1.5	9	2	-	6
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	35.5 (2.5)	45.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	38.5 (2.5)	42	2	10	2.5	1	4
December 17/18, 2005	39.5 (4)	39.5	1.5	10.5	3	1.5	4.5
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	39 (3.5)	43	2	8	3	1	4
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	42 (2.5)	38	2	8.5	2.5	1	6
February 4/5, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	42	1.5	8	2	1	5
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	40 (3)	40.5	2.5	8	2	1	6
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	43 (3.5)	39.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	44 (3.5)	38.5	1.5	8.5	2.5	1	4
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	39 (2)	43.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006	38.5 (2)	42	1.5	9.5	2.5	0.5	5.5
April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006	40 (3)	39	2.5	8.5	2.5	1	6.5
May 6/7, 2006	39 (2)	42	2.5	9.5	1.5	1	4.5
May 13/14, 2006	42 (2.5)	40.5	2.5	7	1.5	0.5	6
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006	42 (3.5)	41	1.5	7.5	3	1	4
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006	39.5 (2.5)	42	2	8	2.5	1.5	4.5
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006	42 (3)	40.5	1.5	8.5	1.5	0.5	5.5
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006	39 (3)	42.5	2.5	8.5	2.5	1	4
July 15/16, 2006	45 (2.5)	36.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1.5	5.5
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	40 (2.5)	42	2	8	2.5	1	4.5
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	41.5	2	8.5	3	1	3.5
August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006	39 (2)	42.5	2.5	8	2.5	0.5	5
September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006	38 (2.5)	43	2.5	9	2	0.5	5
September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006	41.5 (3)	41.5	2.5	8	1	1	4.5
September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006	39 (3)	42	2	9.5	2	1	4.5
October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	41.5	2	8.5	2	0.5	5
October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006	41.5 (3.5)	40.5	1.5	9	2	1	4.5
November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	40.5 (2.5)	40.5	2.5	10	2	1	3.5
November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006	41.5 (3)	41	1.5	9	1.5	1	4.5
December 9/10, 2006	34.5 (3)	50	1.5	7	2.5	1	3.5
December 16/17, 2006	35.5 (3.5)	49	2.5	7	2	1	3
January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007	36.5 (3)	47	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007	39 (2.5)	43.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1.5	4.5
February 3/4, 2007	37 (2.5)	47	2	8	1.5	0.5	4
February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007	38 (2.5)	48	1.5	7	1.5	0.5	3.5
February 24/25, 2007	34 (3.5)	52.5	0.5	7.5	1.5	1	3
March 3/4, 2007	33 (3.5)	51.5	2	7	1.5	1	4
March 10/11, 2007	34 (3)	51.5	1.5	7.5	2	1	2.5
March 17/18, 2007	36 (2.5)	48.5	1	8	2.5	1	3
March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007	34.5 (3)	49.5	1.5	9	1.5	0.5	3.5
April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007	35.5 (3.5)	50	1	7.5	1.5	0.5	4
April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007	34.5 (3.5)	52.5	1.5	6.5	1.5	0.5	3
May 5/6, 2007	35.5 (2)	51.5	1	7	1.5	0.5	3
May 12/13, 2007	36 (2)	51	1	8	1.5	0.5	2
May 19/20, 2007	35.5 (2)	51	1	8	1.5	1	2
May 26/27, 2007	37.5 (2)	49	1	6	2	1.5	3
June 2/3, 2007	38 (2.5)	51	0.5	5.5	1.5	1	2.5
June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007	37 (2.5)	48	1.5	6.5	2	1	4
June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007	36 (2.5)	50.5	0.5	7	1.5	1	3.5
July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007	40.5 (2.5)	47.5	1.5	5.5	2	^	3
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution ^ Less than 0.5% *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	L-NP	ALP
	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
Election October 9, 2004	52.7	47.3
MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2004 election
	%	%	%	%
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	50.5	49.5	50.5	49.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	50	50	50.5	49.5
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	52.5	47.5	53	47
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	51	49	52.5	47.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	53.5	46.5	53	47
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	51.5	48.5	51.5	48.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	51.5	48.5	52	48
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	52	48	52	48
Mar 5/6, 2005	47.5	52.5	48	52
Mar 12/13, 2005	51.5	48.5	52	48
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	50.5	49.5	50.5	49.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	46	54	47	53
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	48	52	49	51
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	47.5	52.5	48	52
May 14/15, 2005	47.5	52.5	49.5	50.5
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	51	49	51.5	48.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	49.5	50.5	50	50
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	48	52	49.5	50.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	48.5	51.5	49	51
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	48.5	51.5	49.5	50.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	47	53	48	52
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	46.5	53.5	46.5	53.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005	51	49	51.5	48.5
September 10/11, 2005	46.5	53.5	47	53
September 17/18, 2005	52	48	52.5	47.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	48.5	51.5	49.5	50.5
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	46.5	53.5	47	53
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45.5	54.5	47	53
November 5/6, 2005	43.5	56.5	46	54
November 12/13, 2005	50	50	51	49
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	41.5	58.5	43	57
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	45	55	46	54
December 17/18, 2005	48	52	48	52
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	45	55	46	54
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	51	49	50	50
February 4/5, 2006	45.5	54.5	47.5	52.5
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	47.5	52.5	47.5	52.5
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	48.5	51.5	50	50
March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	50.5	49.5	51	49
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	46	54	46	54
April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006	46	54	46	54
April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	48.5	51.5	48.5	51.5
May 6/7, 2006	44.5	55.5	46.5	53.5
May 13/14, 2006	50	50	49	51
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006	49	51	48.5	51.5
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006	46	54	47	53
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006	49	51	49	51
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006	44.5	55.5	46.5	53.5
July 15/16, 2006	50.5	49.5	52	48
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	46.5	53.5	46.5	53.5
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006	46	54	47	53
August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006	45.5	54.5	46	54
September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006	45.5	54.5	45	55
September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006	47.5	52.5	47	53
September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006	45	55	45.5	54.5
October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006	47	53	47	53
October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006	48	52	47.5	52.5
November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	46.5	53.5	47	53
November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006	47.5	52.5	47.5	52.5
December 9/10, 2006	40	60	41	59
December 16/17, 2006	41.5	58.5	41	59
January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007	42.5	57.5	42.5	57.5
January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007	45.5	54.5	45.5	54.5
February 3/4, 2007	43	57	42.5	57.5
February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007	43	57	43	57
February 24/25, 2007	38.5	61.5	38.5	61.5
March 3/4, 2007	39.5	60.5	38.5	61.5
March 10/11, 2007	38	62	39	61
March 17/18, 2007	41.5	58.5	41.5	58.5
March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007	40.5	59.5	40	60
April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007	40	60	40.5	59.5
April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007	39	61	39	61
May 5/6, 2007	40	60	40	60
May 12/13, 2007	40.5	59.5	40.5	59.5
May 19/20, 2007	39.5	60.5	40	60
May 26/27, 2007	43	57	42.5	57.5
June 2/3, 2007	42	58	42	58
June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007	41.5	58.5	42.5	57.5
June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007	41	59	41	59
July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007	45	55	45	55

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The “face-to-face” Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week.

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4189 is taken from Computer Report No. 2203

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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