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Over the last two nights (July 25/26), following the Howard/Costello book controversy, the ALP increased their lead by 3% to 18% on a two-party preferred basis.  If Costello were leader of the L-NP the ALP lead would increase to 26%.  However, if Turnbull were to be leader the L-NP would hold its current position. These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll. 

Labor’s primary vote is now 48% (up 0.5% since the last telephone Morgan Poll), L-NP 35% (down 2.5%), Greens 9.5% (up 0.5%) and Independent/Others 7.5% (up 1.5%). On a two-party preferred basis: ALP 59%, LNP 41%.

Electors were also asked who they would vote for if Peter Costello or Malcolm Turnbull were Prime Minister: neither Costello nor Turnbull lifted the L-NP vote beyond the result Howard achieved. 

Primary support for the L-NP if Peter Costello were leader is a low 31.5% (down 3.5% from the Howard result), while ALP support rose 4.5% to 52.5%.  The ALP’s two-party preferred lead went from 18% with Howard as leader to 26% with Costello as leader (63% cf. 37%).

Malcolm Turnbull fared better with L-NP primary support remaining at the same level as Howard (35%), while ALP support increased 1.5% to 49.5%.  Turnbull achieved the same two-party preferred lead as Howard (ALP 59%, L-NP 41%).

With Howard as Coalition leader just 2.5% (down 1%) did not name a party; with Costello as leader 3.5% did not name a party; and with Turnbull as leader 5% did not name a party.

Gary Morgan says:

“The Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights finds the ALP increased its lead following much publicity about comments Peter Costello made in an upcoming biography on John Howard.  Primary support for the ALP is up 0.5% to 48%, while the Coalition vote is down 2.5% to 35%.  The ALP is 18% ahead on a two-party preferred basis (59% cf. 41%).

 “Special Morgan Poll innovative research methods found the ‘voting intention’ of those who refused to be interviewed on the telephone divided 51% ALP, 49% L-NP.  This is a significantly closer result than all telephone polls are currently showing.

“For the academics: the “face-to-face” Morgan Poll showed the ALP lead before the Howard/Costello controversy to be closer to 10% than the 15% measured by the telephone.

“Roy Morgan Research is the only research company in the world that continually surveys voting intention by both ‘face-to-face’ and telephone.  Response rates for telephone interviewing is at best half that achieved by ‘face-to-face’ interviewing.

“Over the years Roy Morgan Research has shown that these different survey methods obtain different results. The differences have been the subject of a major internal R & D project at Roy Morgan Research. The above finding (51% ALP, 49% L-NP among telephone refusals) is significant and similar to the finding published regarding the 1992 UK General Election when all public opinion polls had John Major losing.

“The two year UK inquiry by the pollsters' own organisation, the Market Research Society of Great Britain, concluded that one of the  major factors that contributed to under-estimation of the Conservative vote was those who intended voting Conservative were more reluctant to be interviewed or to say how they would vote than Labour voters.

“Today’s Morgan Poll finding could reflect a similar situation to that when John Major contested the 1992 UK General Election — even though Major was well behind in the UK polls, he won! The Federal Election will be much closer than the telephone polls suggest!”

Special Morgan Poll Qualitative Research looked at reasons electors gave for supporting their preferred party.

The Liberal Party’s perception as superior economic managers continues to be a key factor amongst its supporters:

“Because I still believe Liberals have given us an economy over the years.”

“It’s taken Liberal years to get the economy going and people working.”

“I think the economy is going very well. We were in business when Keating was PM and interest rates were 18%. The Liberals got in and paid all the debts off.”

“The Government has economic stability. I would like that to continue.”

“They run the economy better.”

“Why fix it if it’s not broken? Economic policy is good. Employment rates are good.”

Among many Liberal supporters there was a general feeling that Labor would not be effectively able to manage the varying aspects of Government:

“I don’t like Labor. I don’t really trust them.”

“Because I have confidence in them. It would not be right to have one domination over the country as one Government in both state and federal levels. I’m not sure if the Labor party would do a great job.”

“Labor isn’t good for primary industry.”

“Better the devil you know — we’re familiar with Liberal and have a little more trust in them.”

“I don’t like Labor policies.”

“Every time Labor’s been in power like the last time they were out, they got the country into debt. They like spending the money but they don’t want to make it again.”

John Howard continues to be a key drawing point for many Liberal supporters:

“I think John Howard is doing a great job.”

“I just like John Howard, I think he is honest. I will be voting for the party, not the leader, at the moment the Liberals are who I would vote for.”

“John Howard is a highly intelligent man and a successful businessman.”

“I like John Howard, I think he has been running the country well. He is a very caring person.”

“I have always liked John Howard, I like that he makes strong decisions.”

“I like John Howard, when I vote I vote for the Liberal party and for the leader already in power.”

There was also some positive feedback regarding Malcolm Turnbull:

“I like the policies of the Liberal Party; I believe Malcolm Turnbull is a smart man.”

“I like Malcolm Turnbull’s policies.  I think he would make a good PM.”

Many Labor supporters cited a dislike for John Howard as the key reason for their decision:

“I’m politically and diametrically opposed to John Howard.”

“I consider John Howard to be opportunistic and amoral in an extreme and embarrassing way — I was a lifetime Liberal voter by the way.”

“I don’t believe in monopolies and the Howard Government has had a good run. Rudd seems more reasonable. Howard has lost track with the little people and its time to let someone else have a go.”

“I can’t stand what Howard has done to our country with the Industrial Relations Laws.”

“I just think we have been told too many lies from the Liberal party — so sick of it.”

“I am fed up with the Liberal Government not listening to the views of the people and I detest their workplace policies.”

“The leader doesn’t really make much of a difference to me, it’s about party policies and I think the Liberal Government is corrupt.”

Other Labor supporters were enthusiastic about the party's policy direction:

“We need new ideas and policies on industrial relations, the environment and economics.”

“Today something has to be triggered to make a change, I am against the troops in Iraq.”

“It’s got to be better than what we have now.”

“I like their (Labor's) policies on the environment and their industrial relations; I think there would be more support for education and foreign policies.”

A change in the Liberal leadership from John Howard to Peter Costello would fail to swing Labor supporters to the L-NP:

“I don’t like Peter Costello grinning at me all the time. It looks like he’s got something behind the smirk.”

“Peter Costello is out of touch with people’s opinions and lifestyles.  Turnbull is arrogant — he thinks he knows best but no one likes him.”

“I wouldn’t vote for Costello ever.”

“Peter Costello is awful. Look at the budgets he’s delivered.  The budgets are not in the long term best interest of the country.”

These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted over the last two nights (July 25/26, 2007) with 572 Australian electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094  Home +61 3 9419 3242

Primary Voting Intention

		Telephone Morgan Poll						Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17, 2007 (sample 582 electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556 electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	July 4/5, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	July 11/12, 2007 (sample 600 electors)	July 25/26, 2007 (sample 572 electors)	July 7/8 & 14/15,  2007 (sample 1,780 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	46.4	39	40	40	35	37.5	35	40.5
ALP	37.6	49	46	43.5	49	47.5	48	47.5
Greens	7.2	6	7.5	9.5	7	9	9.5	5.5
Ind./Other	8.8	6	6.5	7	9	6	7.5	6.5
Total	100	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*
Did not name a party	n/a	5	4.5	4.5	4	3.5	2.5	5

* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party. 

Two-Party Preferred

		Telephone Morgan Poll						Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17,  2007 (sample 582  electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556  electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	July 4/5, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	July 11/12, 2007 (sample 600 electors)	July 25/26, 2007 (sample 572 electors)	July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 (sample 1,780 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	52.7	43	45	45	41	42.5	41	45
ALP	47.3	57	55	55	59	57.5	59	55
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Primary Voting Intention: John Howard, Peter Costello or Malcolm Turnbull as L-NP Leader

		Telephone Morgan Poll
		July 25/26, 2007 (sample 572 electors)
	2004 Election	Howard	Costello	Turnbull
	%	%	%	%
L-NP	46.4	35	31.5	35
ALP	37.6	48	52.5	49.5
Greens	7.2	9.5	9	8.5
Ind./Other	8.8	7.5	7	7
Total	100	100*	100*	100*
Did not name a party	n/a	2.5	3.5	5

* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party. 

Two-Party Preferred: John Howard, Peter Costello or Malcolm Turnbull as L-NP Leader

		Telephone Morgan Poll
		July 25/26, 2007 (sample 572 electors)
	2004 Election	Howard	Costello	Turnbull
	%	%	%	%
L-NP	52.7	41	37	41
ALP	47.3	59	63	59
Total	100	100	100	100

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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