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The ALP would win in a landslide if an election were to be held now, the first telephone Morgan Poll since Wednesday’s interest rate rise finds.

Interviewing conducted on the nights of August 8/9 finds the ALP has a 17% lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 58.5% (down 0.5% since the last telephone Morgan Poll), L-NP 41.5% (up 0.5%).

Labor’s primary vote is now 49.5% (up 1.5%), L-NP 36.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 7% (down 2.5%) and Independent/Others 7% (down 0.5%).

Of all electors surveyed, 51.5% (2.5% higher than the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted July 21/22 & 28/29) think Australia is heading in the right direction, 34.5% think Australia’s heading in the wrong direction, while 14% are undecided. 

Just 25% (3% below the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll) of electors think the Coalition is going to be retained at the upcoming Federal election compared to 60.5% who think the ALP will win the election (14.5% can’t say).

Of all electors surveyed, 4% (up 1.5%) did not name a party.

Gary Morgan says:

“In the wake of Wednesday’s 0.25% interest rate rise, primary support for Labor is up 1.5% to 49.5%, however, support for the Coalition is also up 1.5% to 36.5%.  The ALP continues to hold a significant lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 58.5% (down 0.5%), L-NP 41.5% (up 0.5%).

“If an election were to be held now, the ALP would win in a landslide.

“Despite Labor having a 17% lead, a majority of electors (51.5%) still think Australia is heading in the right direction — the question is: ‘Will these electors switch back to the L-NP during the frenzy of the election campaign?’”

These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted over the last two nights (August 8/9, 2007) with 589 Australian electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                     Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:                 Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Primary Voting Intention

		Telephone Morgan Poll							Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17, 2007 (sample 582 electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556 electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	July 4/5, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	July 11/12, 2007 (sample 600 electors)	July 25/26, 2007 (sample 572 electors)	August 8/9 , 2007 (sample 589 electors)	July 21/22 & 28/29,  2007 (sample 1,772 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	46.4	39	40	40	35	37.5	35	36.5	40.5
ALP	37.6	49	46	43.5	49	47.5	48	49.5	47
Greens	7.2	6	7.5	9.5	7	9	9.5	7	6.5
Ind./Other	8.8	6	6.5	7	9	6	7.5	7	6
Total	100	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*
Did not name a party	n/a	5	4.5	4.5	4	3.5	2.5	4	4

* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party. 

Two-Party Preferred

		Telephone Morgan Poll							Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17,  2007 (sample 582  electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556  electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	July 4/5, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	July 11/12, 2007 (sample 600 electors)	July 25/26, 2007 (sample 572 electors)	August 8/9 , 2007 (sample 589 electors)	July 21/22 & 28/29,  2007 (sample 1,772 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	52.7	43	45	45	41	42.5	41	41.5	45
ALP	47.3	57	55	55	59	57.5	59	58.5	55
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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