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A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted last week (August 8/9) found the ALP 17% ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis: 58.5% to 41.5%. 

Qualitative Research looked at what concerns electors have if the Coalition were to be re-elected at the Federal election later this year.  Similarly, electors were also asked what concerns they have if the ALP are successful at the election.

Twenty-six per cent of the 589 electors surveyed said nothing concerned them if the L-NP won the election compared to 25% if the ALP was successful. 

Nine per cent could not say what would concern them if the L-NP won compared to 10% for the ALP.

Concerns about the L-NP being re-elected are: Industrial relations and workers’ rights; the recent interest rate rise; integrity, ie. not telling the truth; Iraq and terrorism; social issues such as health and education; been in power too long; handling environmental issues; the ongoing Howard/Costello issue.

The major concerns of an ALP being elected are: Increase power to the unions that could result in them running the country; poor economic management and future economic prosperity; ALP being in control of all State and Federal Governments.  Other concerns are the reversal of the unfair dismissal law; inexperience; cost of housing; and handling environmental issues.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Roy Morgan qualitative research shows that if a Federal election were held today it would essentially be a referendum on union power and IR.

“The fear and distrust of unions should be a concern to Kevin Rudd and his ALP Parliamentary colleagues.  While many electors don’t like the IR reforms, the recent interest rate increase has changed the debate. Although many electors are concerned union power and poor economic management under a Labor Government will make interest rates go even higher, many others blame the Government for the latest interest rate crisis.

“Special analysis of Roy Morgan Single Source data shows about 80% of the one million plus Australians employed on an AWA are satisfied with the way they are employed (further details on this will be released next week).

“The ALP Morgan Poll lead will drop significantly between now and whenever the election is held — most likely in late November or December.  The Coalition would be poorly advised to call an election in the near future considering the current international financial crisis and ill-informed media saying interest rates will rise further.

“While a week is a long time in politics, a day is a long time in international finance, particularly when it involves billions of dollars and the livelihoods of many people.  Only good management by the Government and the Australian banks will save Australia from a recession.” 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:    Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

“WHAT, IF ANYTHING, WOULD CONCERN YOU IF THE LIBERAL-NATIONAL COALITION WERE TO WIN THE UPCOMING FEDERAL ELECTION?”

Industrial relations and workers’ rights

“More restrictions regarding IR and security of jobs.”

“The IR policy shows Howard’s true colours and works against his workers.”

“Totally disagree with the workplace agreements — they don’t look after the workers.”

“I’m concerned by the IR laws as well as staffing levels and the under-funding of hospitals.”

“I truly believe the IR laws need reforming — we need to go back to basics and not gear towards business.  It should be employees first, not employers.”

“They need to consider workers’ rights far more that what they have.”

“I’m concerned about the minimum award wage.”

Social issues such as health and education

“The Liberals are good economically, but they’re absolutely behind the times with their humanitarian issues.  Our international standard has become so bad, for example the Kyoto protocol.  I won’t be happy if humanitarian issues continue as they are.”

“There’s not enough planning towards integrating Government run facilities such as schools and hospitals.  I don’t think there have been enough federally funded roads.”

“There should be more facilities in schools — make it equal.  What is given to private schools, the same should be given to public schools.  Also, there are not enough facilities for mental health, which is a concern for returned soldiers.”

Social Concerns

“My biggest concern would be that they’d keep on legislating socially backward policies.”

“They’re moving towards a more socially conservative agenda.”

“We would continue to be subject to this fascist regime”

Lying/Integrity

“I don’t agree with the way they do things.  I think they’re a bit sly and cunning.”

“Howard lied about interest rates at the last election.”

“They are very good at doing backflips on their promises — GST is the perfect example.”

“Everything Howard has said is a lie, the GST for example.”

“There’s not a lot of honesty with John Howard.”

“John Howard’s a liar and I think many members of his cabinet are as devious as he is”

“God save us all, you can’t trust Howard. He’s a tricky dicky fellow.”

Iraq and foreign policy

“If the Coalition wins again they will keep Australian troops in Iraq like we did in Vietnam.  I served in Vietnam and both are unwinnable wars.  We certainly aren’t going to win this one.”

“Our continuing presence in Iraq.”

“It concerns me that the L-NP might not make any direct decisions regarding the war in Iraq.”

“Troops will stay in Iraq.”

“Continuing involvement in Iraq and what it means to our Australian security and our troops.”

“They need to get out of Iraq and start looking towards Asia.  They also should get away from the US and start looking at home grown problems, including the medical and housing crisis.”

“Howard’s devotion to George Bush is too much and is to the detriment of Australia, especially those fighting in Iraq and elsewhere, such as Afghanistan.”

“I don’t believe we should be in Iraq.  The ‘weapons of mass destruction’ argument was a bit rich — I think there were other reasons.  I think oil is an issue and the relationship that Howard has with Bush and right-wing religion plays a part as well.”

Handling environmental issues

“The environment and water resources.  I don’t think the Government has given it enough attention, whereas Labor and Peter Garrett have — that’s why Labor will be getting my vote.”

“I don’t think they’ve gone far enough in ways of cleaning up the environment, as well as apprenticeships — I think that’s why we’re in the pickle we’re in with a shortage of skilled workers.”

“I do not want the Liberals to win.  The thing is Howard doesn’t understand the greenhouse issue, so if he got elected, how is he going to manage it?  I think the Liberals would be bad for the people and the environment.”

“I don’t like where they stand on the environment, immigration and troops overseas — all very problematic.”

“I don’t think they are concerned about the environment.”

“I think that they should do a bit more to save the environment.”

John Howard vs. Peter Costello

“If John Howard’s got no confidence in Costello taking over, it doesn’t give us much.”

“I am not sure who is running for leader”

“If John Howard gets back in and the Liberals change power midway through then that sleazebag Costello will run the country!”

“My only concern is that Peter Costello might be a bad leader”

“John Howard is a very old man and he should hand over the leadership”

“The controversy going on at present within the Liberal Party will result in a push to change leadership and I’m not sure of the players and where their allegiances lie; not knowing where that would end up is my concern.”

Been in power too long/Lost touch

“They’re arrogant and have been too long in the job. They have no idea what people want.”

 “They have become arrogant, out of touch and they’re cold-hearted.”

“I don’t think they realise the problems that ordinary working people are facing”

“They have no understanding of the difficulties facing the average working families to get by. They’ll continue tax cuts to the rich and the poor will get poorer.”

“Howard’s been Prime Minister for too long and we need a new fresh face.”

“I think they’ve been in there too long.  They don’t care about the little people.”

“WHAT, IF ANYTHING, WOULD CONCERN YOU IF LABOR WERE TO WIN THE UPCOMING FEDERAL ELECTION?”

Increase power to the unions that could result in them running the country

“I wouldn’t like the unions to get too much of a hold again, but they’re (unions) better than the two evils at the moment.”

“Unions taking total control of the Government.”

“The unions would rise again, which can be detrimental to economic prosperity.  My only concern is that Labor would be unable to keep the unions under control.”

“The unions will take over and run the country.”

“Once the unions take hold they will run riot.”

“I think we’d return to the days of unreasonable union power.”

“Their relationship with the unions — strikes and ‘go-slows.’”

Poor economic management

“I think Labor has a very poor economic record and I would also be very wary of trade unions becoming involved in the politics and taking us back to the 1970s and 1980s.”

“Labor’s complete inability to manage finance.”

“Every time we have Labor in power we get into debt and it takes a long time for the country to recover.”

“The economy would drop back 20 years.”

“The monetary policies.  I have lived through Labor in power.  I have seen all the money being spent and I know how they govern — it will really have a nasty effect.”

“Labor Party are a bunch of rip-offs. They wouldn’t even know how to manage a Chinese brothel”

ALP being in control of all State and Federal Governments

“Labor would be in control of the whole nation — State and Federal.”

“Having both State and Federal Labor Governments creating a monopoly.”

“The power Labor would have at the State and Federal level.  I think there might be a lack of transparency in passing laws and that they might end up doing things just for the image of the party.”

“I am concerned about Labor having power in every state.  They have billions of dollars in GST revenue and all they do is close down hospitals, schools and police stations.  If the Labor Party got into Federal Government the whole country would be destroyed.”

Inexperience

“Labor hasn’t had control for a long time so you don’t know if you can put in someone who doesn’t have the experience.”

“I’d be concerned about the new Prime Minister’s skill level and lack of experience.”

“I don’t think the Labor leaders have enough experience in world affairs.  Rudd doesn’t appeal to me anyway.”

“Labor doesn’t have enough experience in managing money.”

“It would concern me that they are bringing in inexperienced treasurers and ministers and they will be learning on the job, and that could hurt the economy.”

“The inexperience of the team. Basically I’m not sure what kind of front bench they’d be able to muster”.

Handling environmental issues

“I believe in regards to the environment, Labor might need to head to nuclear power.”

“I just think they should be more open-minded concerning the environment.”

“I’m not aware of their policies regarding the environment and the global warming phenomenon.”

“I don’t think they have very good policies on pollution and ecology.”

This Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research was conducted August 8/9, 2007, with 589 Australian electors.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2010 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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