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The latest Morgan Senate Poll finds that support for the ALP in Queensland is down 1.5% to 40.5%, while support for the Liberal Party is up 3% to 32.5%.  Support for the National Party is just 4% (down 0.5%).

Support for Pauline Hanson, who made headlines last week for her controversial views on Muslims and immigration, has support of 5% (up 0.5%). 

Ms Hanson recently confirmed that she has applied to register her own ‘Pauline’s United Australia Party’ so she is not disadvantaged by appearing below the line on the ballot paper.  There has been criticism since that Ms Hanson is doing this to attract the extra electoral funding available to political parties.

Support for the Greens is 6% (down 0.5%).  Among the other minor parties support for the Australian Democrats is 5.5% (unchanged), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%), One Nation 1% (unchanged), and Other Parties/Independent candidates 3% (down 1.5%).

In Queensland: ALP 40.5%, Liberal 32.5%, Greens 6%, Democrats 5.5%, Pauline Hanson 5%, Nationals 4%, Family First 2.5%, One Nation 1%, Other 3%. 

This would most likely result in three Queensland ALP Senators, two Liberal Senators, and another Senator, most probably one from the Democrats, National Party, the Greens or Pauline Hanson once preferences have been allocated.

Note: For Senators to be elected, they must obtain 7.7% or more of the vote (the quota) in a State when all Senators (12 per State) are to be elected.  At an election for half the Senate the quota is 14.3% and six Senators are elected from each State.

These are the main findings of the latest Morgan Senate Poll, conducted face-to-face with:

• 1,509 Queensland electors on the weekends of May/June 2007; and
• 746 Queensland electors on the weekends of July 2007.

QUEENSLAND SENATE VOTING INTENTION

Respondents were asked: “If a Federal election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

Queensland:	Lib.	Nat.	ALP	Greens	Aust. Dems.	Family First	One Nation	Pauline Hanson	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	31.5	14.5	39.4	3.2	7	n/a	n/a	^	4.4
March 2, 1996	35.4	15	30.3	2.4	13.2	n/a	n/a	^	3.7
October 3, 1998	28.5	9.5	32.7	2.1	7.8	n/a	14.8	^	4.6
November 10, 2001	34.9	9.2	31.7	3.3	6.7	n/a	10	^	4.2
October 9, 2004	38.3	6.6	31.7	5.4	2.2	3.4	3.1	^	9.3
Morgan Poll:								^
September & October, 2006	30	7	39	9	5.5	2.5	1.5	^	5.5
November & December, 2006	30.5	7	40	8.5	5	3	1.5	^	4.5
January & February, 2007	32	6.5	41	7.5	5.5	2	1.5	^	4
March & April, 2007	25	6	44.5	7	4.5	2.5	1.5	4.5	4.5
May & June, 2007	29.5	4.5	42	6.5	5.5	2	1	4.5	4.5
July 2007	32.5	4	40.5	6	5.5	2.5	1	5	3

^ From March 10/11

Respondents were asked: “If a Federal election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”  

Of all electors surveyed:

• 9.6% were undecided on Senate voting intention in May/June 2007; and
• 11% were undecided on Senate voting intention in July 2007.

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1

For further information:

Gary Morgan:          Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

Finding No. 4199 is taken from Computer Report No. 2209

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