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ALP Would Still Win Election In A Landslide Despite Publicity Surrounding Rudd's Strip Club Visit
The ALP would win in a landslide if the Federal election were to be held now, the first telephone Morgan Poll since Kevin Rudd’s 2003 visit to a New York strip club became public. Interviewing conducted on the nights of August 21/22 finds the ALP has a 20% lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 60% (up 1.5% since the last telephone Morgan Poll), L-NP 40% (down 1.5%). Labor’s primary vote is now 51% (up 1.5%), L-NP 36% (down 0.5%), Greens 7.5% (down 0.5%) and Independent/Others 5.5% (down 1.5%). Of all electors surveyed, 2% (down 2%) did not name a party. Gary Morgan says:
These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted over the last two nights (August 21/22, 2007) with 633 Australian electors. Detailed analysis (computer tables) of all questions, cross-tabulated by States/Regions, demographics and answers to each question are available for $850 on the Roy Morgan Online Store. For further information: Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093 Primary Voting Intention
* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party. Two-Party Preferred
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election. Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading. The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.” Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association. No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification. |
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