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Fifty-eight percent (up 3% since March) of Australian electors say John Howard should continue in his position as Prime Minister and contest his fifth Federal election as Liberal leader, 35% (down 5%) say he should retire before the election while 7% (up 2%) can’t say, a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted on August 21/22 finds.

While most L-NP voters (81%) believe Mr Howard should contest the upcoming election, ALP voters are evenly divided: Contest election 46%; Retire 47%; and Can’t say 7%.

Gary Morgan says:

“Having served as Australian Prime Minister for more than 11 years, a majority of Australian electors (58%) say John Howard should lead the Coalition at the upcoming Federal election — up 3% from the Morgan Poll conducted in March.  Thirty-five percent of electors say Mr Howard should retire before the election: 14% of Coalition supporters say he should retire compared to 47% of Labor supporters and 50% of Greens supporters.

“Electors who said Mr Howard should contest the election cited his track record, as well as the fact that there is minimal time for a new leader to make a significant enough imprint on the electorate to be successful against Kevin Rudd.

“The recurring reason among electors who said Mr Howard should retire is that he’s been in the position for long enough.”

Should Howard contest the next Federal Election?

Respondents were asked: “John Howard turned 68 in July and later this year will contest his fifth election as Leader of the Coalition. In your opinion, should Mr Howard contest the next Federal election or retire before the Election?”

	Bennelong electors	Australian electors		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 14/15, 2007	Mar 28/29, 2007	Aug 21/22, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens	Ind/Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Contest election	55	55	58	81	46	39	58
Retire	38	40	35	14	47	50	31
Can't say	7	5	7	5	7	11	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

A report with detailed analysis (computer tables) by state/region and all demographics including voting intention with “soft” L-NP and ALP voters specified is available at:

https://store.roymorgan.com/home.php?cat=453&catexp=453.

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll, which was conducted on the nights of August 21/22, 2007, with 633 Australian electors.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research looked at reasons why electors think Mr Howard should contest the election or retire:

Reasons given for wanting Mr Howard to continue as Coalition leader included:

“He’s a good man and he should keep going if he has the will.”

“Basically because of his past performance — very happy.”

“There isn’t enough time for anyone else to settle right in.”

“Just because he’s 68 doesn’t mean his brains going.  He’s quite capable.”

“His knowledge and ability to continue the things he has started doing.”

“He’s got the knowledge, right attitude and he should go for it.”

“He should have retired earlier, but it is too late for now him to make way for someone else.”

“It’s too close to the election.”

“Howard has made very few mistakes — he’s got the experience which is lacking in the Labor Party.”

“Howard has the runs on the board — his economic policies are quite satisfactory.”

Reasons given for wanting Mr Howard to retire prior to the Federal election were predominantly related to his age and the duration of his tenure:

“He’s getting too old and losing some of his abilities.”

“Simply because I think he’s been in the position long enough.”

“I think he’s losing credibility with the voters, and that he has reached the end.”

“He’s not an honest politician — he buys votes and gives out money unwisely.”

“Because of his age and because he’s been in for a long time and lacks new ideas.”

“I think he has been in the job for a while and that they need someone new.”

“He’s done his job.  At his age, he owes it to himself and the electorate to give someone else a go.”

“It’s nothing to do with his age; he’s just been in the job too long.”

“He’s not improving conditions and stagnant in his thinking. He’s in it for himself.”

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.  The following included comment says it all:

“I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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