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About one-in-four (27%) of Australian electors are concerned about the economic management skills (including interest rates [9%] and cost of housing [3%]) of the ALP should they win the Federal election later this year compared to 13% (including interest rates [7%] and cost of housing [5%]) who share the same concerns if the Coalition are re-elected, a special telephone Morgan Poll finds.

The main concern among electors if the Coalition is re-elected is its industrial relations policy (22%), however, a high 12% said they have concerns about the ALP’s industrial realtions policy.

Foreign policy, including the War in Iraq, is another major concern if the Coalition is re-elected (15%).

Kevin Rudd’s experience in international relations seems to have given electors some confidence with only 4% saying they would be concerned with Labor’s foreign policy should they be successful at the election.

Other major concerns of the Coalition are: Social issues such as health and education (11%), Environmental issues (8%), Intergrity and honesty (5%) and ‘Been in power too long’ (5%).

Other major concerns of the ALP are: Inexperience (8%), Union power (8%) and Social issues such as health and education (4%).
In total, 67% of electors have at least one concern if the Coalition is re-elected, marginally above that for the ALP (63%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Economic management and industrial relations are the main issues concerning the electorate today, however, concerns do not necessarily reflect popular opinion.

“There is about the same number of electors concerned about the ALP industrial relations policy (12%) as there is for the Coalition’s economic policies (13%). 

“The relativities between the concerns the electorate has for each party will change as they are debated and will decide the election result."

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll, which was conducted on the nights of August 21/22, 2007, with 633 Australian electors.

This Morgan Poll 4205 release was updated on September 6, 2007, to include an expanded list of concerns mentioned by electors.

A report with detailed analysis (computer tables) by state/region and all demographics including voting intention with “soft” L-NP and ALP voters specified is available at: https://store.roymorgan.com/home.php?cat=453&catexp=453.

Concerns if win at the next Federal election:

Respondents were asked:

1. “What, if anything, would concern you if Labor were to win the upcoming Federal Election?”

2. “What, if anything, would concern you if the Liberal National Coalition were to win the upcoming Federal Election?”

* Percentage of respondents who are concerned with at least one economic issue

** Some respondents mentioned more than one concern

^ Less than 1%

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll, which was conducted on the nights of August 21/22, 2007, with 633 Australian electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.  The following included comment says it all:

“I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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