Big Drop In L-NP Vote After ALP IR Announcement
| Finding No. 4207 -
September 07, 2007 |
In early September, following the announcement of the ALP’s industrial relations policy, Labor primary support is up 3% to 49%, while L-NP support is 34.5% (down 6.5%).
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 60% (up 5.5%), L-NP 40% (down 5.5%). If the Federal election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won in a massive landslide, the latest ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll finds.
Among the minor parties support for The Greens is 9% (up 2.5%), Family First 2% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2% (up 1%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3% (unchanged).
On the important question of who the electorate “think will win” the next Federal election, 60.5% (up 5.5%) think the ALP will win, 26.5% (down 5%) think the L-NP will win and 13% (down 0.5%) can’t say.
Now, 47% (down 1.5%) of electors think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, 34.5% (up 1.5%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” and 18.5% (unchanged) are undecided.
Currently, 18.5% (up 1.5%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote for Labor if an election were held today. The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.
Gary Morgan says:
"The sharp swing back to the ALP in the latest ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll is bad news for the Howard Government, particularly as it comes after Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd released details of his Party’s industrial relations policy diffusing many of the electorate’s concerns. Despite criticism from business groups, it appears to have struck a chord with many electors.
"If the Federal election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won in a massive landslide. However, the Federal election will be much closer than shown by the latest Morgan Poll.
"Today the electorate is focusing on domestic issues like economic management and IR, as well as international issues such as the War in Iraq. However, once the election is called the electorate will focus on what’s in it for them — tax cuts and the level of interest rates.
"With the slowdown in the US financial markets, there is no chance Australian interest rates will be put up between now and the election. The Government — with such a large surplus — will no doubt come up with imaginative ways of trying to lure the electorate to vote for them. Australia’s excessive level of tax leaves room for tax cuts at all levels — tax cuts for the real workers and reduced Government spending is the obvious way to reward Australians!”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”
Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of September 1/2, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 915 electors.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
During the period:
• US Attorney-General Alberto Gonzales resigned after he came under fire for his role in the sacking of eight federal prosecutors. US solicitor-general Paul Clement will serve as acting attorney-general until a replacement is confirmed by the Senate.
• The Workplace Ombudsman announced it has finalised an investigation into the business formerly owned by the Federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd's wife, and decided to take no further action.
• Eighteen soldiers and an official held hostage by pro-Taliban militants in Pakistan's South Waziristan region were released.
• The Federal Government claimed the Opposition's new industrial relations (IR) plan aimed at restoring the balance, will instead push up unemployment.
Labor's industrial relations spokeswoman Julia Gillard announced the party would scrap award coverage for people earning more than $100,000 to boost flexibility for people like mine workers.
• The Federal Government established a $4 million fund to provide grants to people affected by the equine influenza outbreak.
• The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will use videos translated into eight Indigenous languages to help guide people in remote communities on how to vote.
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates |
| |
May 19/20 |
May 26/27 |
June 2/3 |
June 9/10
& 16/17 |
June 23/24 &
June 30/July 1 |
July 7/8
& 14/15 |
July 21/22
& 28/29 |
Aug 4/5
& 11/12 |
Aug 18/19
& 25/26 |
Sep 1/2 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
50 |
50.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
51.5 |
55.5 |
49 |
49 |
48.5 |
47 |
|
Wrong direction |
34 |
33 |
32.5 |
33.5 |
31 |
30 |
33.5 |
34.5 |
33 |
34.5 |
|
Can’t say |
16 |
16.5 |
19 |
15 |
17.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
16.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
VOTING STRENGTH
| |
Interviewing Dates |
| |
May 19/20 |
May 26/27 |
June 2/3 |
June 9/10
& 16/17 |
June 23/24 & June 30/July 1 |
July 7/8
& 14/15 |
July 21/22
& 28/29 |
Aug 4/5
& 11/12 |
Aug 18/19
& 25/26 |
Sep 1/2 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Strong L-NP voters |
31 |
32 |
32 |
32.5 |
31 |
36 |
34 |
31.5 |
34.5 |
28.5 |
|
Soft L-NP voters |
4.5 |
5.5 |
6 |
4.5 |
5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
6 |
|
Total L-NP voters |
35.5 |
37.5 |
38 |
37 |
36 |
40.5 |
40.5 |
36.5 |
41 |
34.5 |
|
Soft ALP voters |
20.5 |
17.5 |
19 |
19 |
20.5 |
19.5 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
18.5 |
|
Strong ALP voters |
30.5 |
31.5 |
32 |
29 |
30 |
28 |
30 |
30.5 |
29 |
30.5 |
|
Total ALP voters |
51 |
49 |
51 |
48 |
50.5 |
47.5 |
47 |
49.5 |
46 |
49 |
|
Greens voters |
8 |
6 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
7 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
7 |
6.5 |
9 |
|
Ind./Other voters |
5.5 |
7.5 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
7 |
6.5 |
6 |
7 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
|
Total |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
|
Did not name a party |
4 |
3 |
5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
5 |
4 |
4.5 |
5 |
5.5 |
* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party.
Strong L-NP voters are defined as those who said Australia is “heading in the right direction” as well as saying they would vote L-NP if an election were held today.
Soft L-NP voters are defined as those who said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction” as well as saying they would vote L-NP if an election were held today.
Soft ALP voters are defined as those who said Australia is “heading in the right direction” as well as saying they would vote Labor if an election were held today.
Strong ALP voters are defined as those who said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction” as well as saying they would vote Labor if an election were held today.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004 |
56 |
28 |
16 |
|
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
55.5 |
30 |
14.5 |
|
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004 |
63.5 |
23 |
13.5 |
|
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
|
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
69.5 |
19.5 |
11 |
|
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
|
March 5/6, 2005 |
57 |
31 |
12 |
|
March 12/13, 2005 |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
|
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
|
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
55 |
31.5 |
13.5 |
|
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
|
May 14/15, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
|
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
|
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
61 |
27 |
12 |
|
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
|
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
|
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
61.5 |
26 |
12.5 |
|
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
61.5 |
24.5 |
14 |
|
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
61 |
24.5 |
14.5 |
|
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
|
September 10/11, 2005 |
60.5 |
27 |
12.5 |
|
September 17/18, 2005 |
66 |
21.5 |
12.5 |
|
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
65 |
24 |
11 |
|
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
|
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
60 |
26.5 |
13.5 |
|
November 5/6, 2005 |
55 |
32.5 |
12.5 |
|
November 12/13, 2005 |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
|
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50 |
36.5 |
13.5 |
|
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
54.5 |
33 |
12.5 |
|
December 17/18, 2005 |
58 |
28 |
14 |
|
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
59 |
27 |
14 |
|
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
65 |
25 |
10 |
|
February 4/5, 2006 |
62 |
27 |
11 |
|
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
|
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
66 |
23 |
11 |
|
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
69 |
20.5 |
10.5 |
|
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
64.5 |
25 |
10.5 |
|
April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006 |
62 |
26.5 |
11.5 |
|
April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
63.5 |
24.5 |
12 |
|
May 6/7, 2006 |
60.5 |
28 |
11.5 |
|
May 13/14, 2006 |
70 |
20 |
10 |
|
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
64.5 |
22 |
13.5 |
|
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
61.5 |
26.5 |
12 |
|
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
|
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
56.5 |
30 |
13.5 |
|
July 15/16, 2006 |
61 |
28 |
11 |
|
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
59.5 |
29 |
11.5 |
|
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
|
August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
|
September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
58 |
30 |
12 |
|
September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
59.5 |
27.5 |
13 |
|
September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
|
October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
|
October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
|
November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
58 |
29.5 |
12.5 |
|
November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
58 |
28.5 |
13.5 |
|
December 9/10, 2006 |
46 |
39.5 |
14.5 |
|
December 16/17, 2006 |
45.5 |
41 |
13.5 |
|
January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007 |
48 |
38.5 |
13.5 |
|
January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007 |
47.5 |
38.5 |
14 |
| February 3/4, 2007 |
43 |
44 |
13 |
| February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 |
40 |
45.5 |
14.5 |
| February 23/24, 2007 |
31.5 |
52.5 |
16 |
| March 3/4, 2007 |
39.5 |
47.5 |
13 |
| March 10/11, 2007 |
36 |
50 |
14 |
| March 17/18, 2007 |
30.5 |
54.5 |
15 |
| March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 |
31 |
56.5 |
12.5 |
| April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
31.5 |
55 |
13.5 |
| April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
29.5 |
55.5 |
15 |
| May 5/6, 2007 |
33 |
55 |
12 |
| May 12/13, 2007 |
38 |
49 |
13 |
| May 19/20, 2007 |
32 |
55 |
13 |
| May 26/27, 2007 |
33 |
55 |
12 |
| June 2/3, 2007 |
28.5 |
59 |
12.5 |
| June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 |
35.5 |
50 |
14.5 |
| June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 |
37 |
50 |
13 |
| July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
34.5 |
52 |
13.5 |
| July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
28 |
58 |
14 |
| August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 |
28 |
60 |
12 |
| August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 |
31.5 |
55 |
13.5 |
| September 1/2 , 2007 |
26.5 |
60.5 |
13 |
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem.# |
The
Greens |
Family
First# |
One
Nation# |
Ind./
Others |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
* |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
* |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
* |
4.3 |
5.1 |
| Election October 9, 2004 |
46.4 (5.9) |
37.6 |
1.2 |
7.2 |
2 |
1.2 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
44.5 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
44 (3) |
39 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
46.5 (2.5) |
36 |
1.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
45.5 (3) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
47 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
37.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
46 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
44.5 (2.5) |
37 |
1 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
39 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
40.5 (1.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
42 (2) |
40 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
42(2.5) |
42.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
43(1.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
0.5 |
4 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
45 (2) |
39 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
43.5 (1.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
42.5 (2) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
41.5 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
6 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
41.5 (4) |
42 |
2 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
39 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1.5 |
5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4 |
44 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
39.5 (3) |
41.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
3 |
0.5 |
7 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
34.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
42 (3.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
39.5 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
39 (3.5) |
41 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
38.5 (3) |
43 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
43.5 (3) |
38 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
- |
6 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
35.5 (2.5) |
45.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
38.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
39.5 (4) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
39 (3.5) |
43 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
42 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40 (3) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
43 (3.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
44 (3.5) |
38.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
39 (2) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
38.5 (2) |
42 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (3) |
39 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
42 (3.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
39.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (3) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
45 (2.5) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
3.5 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
38 (2.5) |
43 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
4.5 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42 |
2 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
41.5 (3.5) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40.5 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41 |
1.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| December 9/10, 2006 |
34.5 (3) |
50 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| December 16/17, 2006 |
35.5 (3.5) |
49 |
2.5 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
| January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007 |
36.5 (3) |
47 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007 |
39 (2.5) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| February 3/4, 2007 |
37 (2.5) |
47 |
2 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
| February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 |
38 (2.5) |
48 |
1.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| February 24/25, 2007 |
34 (3.5) |
52.5 |
0.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
3 |
| March 3/4, 2007 |
33 (3.5) |
51.5 |
2 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 10/11, 2007 |
34 (3) |
51.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| March 17/18, 2007 |
36 (2.5) |
48.5 |
1 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 |
34.5 (3) |
49.5 |
1.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
35.5 (3.5) |
50 |
1 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
| April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
34.5 (3.5) |
52.5 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| May 5/6, 2007 |
35.5 (2) |
51.5 |
1 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| May 12/13, 2007 |
36 (2) |
51 |
1 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
| May 19/20, 2007 |
35.5 (2) |
51 |
1 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
| May 26/27, 2007 |
37.5 (2) |
49 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
1.5 |
3 |
| June 2/3, 2007 |
38 (2.5) |
51 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
| June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 |
37 (2.5) |
48 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 |
36 (2.5) |
50.5 |
0.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
40.5 (2.5) |
47.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
2 |
^ |
3 |
| July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
40.5 (2.5) |
47 |
1 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 |
36.5 (3) |
49.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 |
41 (2.5) |
46 |
1 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
3 |
| September 1/2, 2007 |
34.5(1.5) |
49 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
0.5 |
3 |
|
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
^ Less than 0.5%
*The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2004 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
51 |
49 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49 |
51 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
50 |
50 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
47 |
53 |
48 |
52 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46 |
54 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
50 |
50 |
51 |
49 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
43 |
57 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
50 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
51 |
49 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
50 |
50 |
49 |
51 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
49 |
51 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
52 |
48 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46 |
54 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45 |
55 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
53 |
| October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
48 |
52 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| December 9/10, 2006 |
40 |
60 |
41 |
59 |
| December 16/17, 2006 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41 |
59 |
| January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| February 3/4, 2007 |
43 |
57 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 |
43 |
57 |
43 |
57 |
| February 24/25, 2007 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
| March 3/4, 2007 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
| March 10/11, 2007 |
38 |
62 |
39 |
61 |
| March 17/18, 2007 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
| March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40 |
60 |
| April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
40 |
60 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
| April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
61 |
| May 5/6, 2007 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
60 |
| May 12/13, 2007 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
| May 19/20, 2007 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
40 |
60 |
| May 26/27, 2007 |
43 |
57 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| June 2/3, 2007 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
58 |
| June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
59 |
| July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
55 |
| July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45 |
55 |
| August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
| August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 |
46 |
54 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| September 1/2, 2007 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
40 |
60 |
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)
| |
July 21/22 & 28/29 |
August 4/5 & 11/12 |
August 18/19 & 25/26 |
September 1/2 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Australian Democrats# |
14.5 |
85.5 |
26.5 |
73.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
36 |
64 |
|
The Greens |
21.5 |
78.5 |
18 |
82 |
18.5 |
81.5 |
6.5 |
93.5 |
|
Family First# |
61 |
39 |
47 |
53 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
71.5 |
28.5 |
|
One Nation# |
45 |
55 |
34.5 |
65.5 |
81.5 |
18.5 |
87.5 |
12.5 |
|
Independent/Other # |
51 |
49 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The “face-to-face” Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week.
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
|
