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Minor Parties Look Set to Gain Control of Senate

Finding No. 4208 - September 07, 2007

The latest Federal Morgan Poll finds that support for the ALP in the Senate is down 2.5% from 45.5% in the May/June period to 43% in July/August. Support for the ALP was highest in South Australia (46%) and lowest in Western Australia (37%).

During the same period, 37% (up 3.5%) of Australia electors said they would vote for the L-NP “if a Federal election for the Senate were being held today” compared to 33.5% in May/June, 32.5% in March/April, and 36% in January/February.

Support for the Greens is 8.5% (down 1%). Among the other minor parties support for the Australian Democrats is 4% (up 0.5%), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged), and support for Other Parties and Independent Candidates is 4.5% (down 1%).

Pauline Hanson’s quest for a Senate position is a long way off reality, with Ms. Hanson polling 5.5% of the vote in Queensland during July/August — a long way off the 14.3% required at a half-Senate election.

Results by State (July/August):

• In New South Wales: ALP 45.5%, L-NP 37.5%, Greens 7%, Democrats 2.5%, CDP 2%; Family First 1%, One Nation 1%, Other 3.5%. If a half-Senate election were to be held now, this would result in three NSW ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator).

• In Victoria: ALP 42%, L-NP 37%, Greens 10.5%, Democrats 5%, Family First 3%, One Nation 0.5%, Other 2%. This would result in three Victorian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator).

• In Queensland: ALP 41.5%, Liberal 31%, Greens 6%, Democrats 5.5%, Pauline Hanson 5.5%, Nationals 4.5%, Family First 2.5%, One Nation 0.5%, Other 3%. This would result in three Queensland ALP Senators, two Liberal Senators, and another Senator, most probably one from either the National Party, the Greens or Pauline Hanson once preferences have been allocated.

• In South Australia: ALP 46%, L-NP 33.5%, Greens 7%, Family First 4.5%, Democrats 3%, One Nation 1%, Other 5%. This would result in three South Australian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one position from the Greens, Democrats or Family First determined by the allocation of preferences.

• In Western Australia: Liberal 42%, ALP 37%, Greens 9.5%, Democrats 3%, Nationals 1.5%, One Nation 1.5%, Family First 1.5%, CDP 1%, Other 3%. This would most likely result in three Western Australian Liberal Senators, two ALP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator).

• In Tasmania: ALP 45%, Liberal 30%, Greens 17.5%, Family First 2.5%, Democrats 0.5%, Other 4.5%. This would result in three Tasmanian ALP Senators, two Liberal Senators, and one Greens Senator.

Note: For Senators to be elected, they must obtain 7.7% or more of the vote (the quota) in a State when all Senators (12 per State) are to be elected. At an election for half the Senate the quota is 14.3% and six Senators are elected from each State.

See tables in release for full analysis of state, monthly and demographic breakdown.

These are the main findings of the latest Morgan Senate Poll, conducted face-to-face with:

• 7,232 electors in all electorates throughout Australia during the weekends of May/June 2007; and

• 7,285 electors in all electorates throughout Australia during the weekends of July/August 2007.

Respondents were asked: “If a Federal election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”
Of all electors surveyed:

• 10.1% were undecided on Senate voting intention in May/June 2007; and

• 9.9% were undecided on Senate voting intention in July/August 2007.

For further information:

Gary Morgan

Office (03) 9224 5213

Mobile 0411 129 094

Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine

Office (03) 9224 5215

Mobile 0411 129 093

Home (03) 9817 3066

Senate Voting Intention

Respondents were asked: “If a Federal election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

Total Australia:

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Aust. Dems.

Family First

One Nation

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Senate Election:

March 13, 1993

43

43.5

2.9

5.3

n/a

n/a

5.3

March 2, 1996

44

36.2

1.7

10.8

n/a

n/a

7.3

October 3, 1998

36.5

37.3

2.2

8.5

n/a

9.0

6.5

November 10, 2001

42

34.1

4.9

7.2

n/a

5.6

6.2

October 9, 2004

44.7

35

7.7

2.1

1.8

1.7

7

Morgan Poll:

September & October, 2006

36

39

10.5

5.5

2.5

1

5.5

November & December, 2006

36.5

40

10.5

4.5

2.5

1

5

January & February, 2007

36

42

10

4.5

2

1

4.5

March & April, 2007

32.5

45.5

9.5

4

2

1

5.5

May & June, 2007

33.5

45.5

9.5

3.5

2

1

5

July & August, 2007

37

43

8.5

4

2

1

4.5

Senate Vote by State

New South Wales:

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Aust. Dems.

Family First

One Nation

CDP

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Senate Election:

March 13, 1993

38.9

46.9

3.4

4.9

n/a

n/a

^

5.9

March 2, 1996

41.4

37.2

2.7

9.6

n/a

n/a

^

9.1

October 3, 1998

36.6

38.7

2.2

7.4

n/a

9.6

^

5.5

November 10, 2001

41.8

33.5

4.4

6.2

n/a

5.6

^

8.5

October 9, 2004

44.1

36.4

7.3

2.2

0.6

1.9

^

7.5

Morgan Poll:

September & October, 2006

35.5

40.5

8.5

5

2

1

1.5

6

November & December, 2006

36.5

40.5

9.5

4

1.5

1.5

1.5

5

January & February, 2007

34

43

10.5

4

1.5

1

1.5

4.5

March & April, 2007

31

46.5

9.5

4

1

1

2.5

4.5

May & June, 2007

32.5

48.5

9.5

2

1

1

2

3.5

July & August, 2007

37.5

45.5

7

2.5

1

1

2

3.5

Victoria:

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Aust. Dems.

Family First

One Nation

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Senate Election

March 13, 1993

44.1

45

1.2

4

n/a

n/a

5.7

March 2, 1996

41.4

39.8

2.9

10.9

n/a

n/a

5

October 3, 1998

37.9

40.6

2.5

9.8

n/a

4.1

5.5

November 10, 2001

39.6

36.8

6

7.8

n/a

2.5

7.3

October 9, 2004

44.1

36.1

8.8

1.9

1.9

0.7

6.5

Morgan Poll:

September & October, 2006

35.5

38.5

13

5.5

2.5

0.5

4.5

November & December, 2006

36

39.5

14.5

4.5

2

0.5

3

January & February, 2007

36

41

12

4

2.5

1

3.5

March & April, 2007

34

46

11

3.5

3

1

1.5

May & June, 2007

33

45.5

10

4.5

2.5

1

3.5

July & August, 2007

37

42

10.5

5

3

0.5

2

Queensland:

Lib.

Nat.

ALP

Greens

Aust. Dems.

Family First

One

Nation

Pauline

Hanson

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Senate Election:

March 13, 1993

31.5

14.5

39.4

3.2

7

n/a

n/a

^

4.4

March 2, 1996

35.4

15

30.3

2.4

13.2

n/a

n/a

^

3.7

October 3, 1998

28.5

9.5

32.7

2.1

7.8

n/a

14.8

^

4.6

November 10, 2001

34.9

9.2

31.7

3.3

6.7

n/a

10

^

4.2

October 9, 2004

38.3

6.6

31.7

5.4

2.2

3.4

3.1

^

9.3

Morgan Poll:

^

September & October, 2006

30

7

39

9

5.5

2.5

1.5

^

5.5

November & December, 2006

30.5

7

40

8.5

5

3

1.5

^

4.5

January & February, 2007

32

6.5

41

7.5

5.5

2

1.5

^

4

March & April, 2007

25

6

44.5

7

4.5

2.5

1.5

4.5

4.5

May & June, 2007

30

4.5

42

6.5

5.5

2

1

4.5

4

July & August, 2007

31

4.5

41.5

6

5.5

2.5

0.5

5.5

3

South Australia:

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Aust. Dems.

Family First

One Nation

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Senate Election:

March 13, 1993.

45.6

38

1.6

9.9

n/a

n/a

4.4

March 2, 1996

45.8

32.2

2.1

14.5

n/a

n/a

5.4

October 3, 1998

40.5

32

2.2

12.4

n/a

9.7

3.2

November 10, 2001

45.5

33.2

3.5

12.6

n/a

4.6

0.6

October 9, 2004

47.9

35.5

6.6

2.4

4

1.1

2.5

Morgan Poll:

September & October, 2006

35

37

8

9

4.5

0.5

6

November & December, 2006

33.5

41.5

8

6

4.5

1

5.5

January & February, 2007

31.5

44.5

8.5

5

5

0.5

5

March & April, 2007

31.5

47.5

5.5

6.5

3.5

1

4.5

May & June, 2007

35.5

43.5

7.5

4.5

4.5

1

3.5

July & August, 2007

33.5

46

7

3

4.5

1

5

Western Australia:

Lib.

Nat.

ALP

Greens

Aust. Dems.

Family First

One Nation

CDP

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Senate Election:

March 13, 1993

48.4

1.7

38.3

5.5

4.1

n/a

n/a

^

2

March 2, 1996

45.4

2.1

34

5.7

9.4

n/a

n/a

^

3.4

October 3, 1998

38.4

1.3

34.7

5.7

6.4

n/a

10.4

^

3.1

November 10, 2001

40.1

2.4

34.2

5.9

5.9

n/a

7

^

4.5

October 9, 2004

49.3

0.9

32.5

8.1

2

0.9

2.5

^

3.8

Morgan Poll:

September & October, 2006

37

2.5

37.5

11.5

4.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

November & December, 2006

37.5

2

37

9.5

5.5

1.5

1

1.5

4.5

January & February, 2007

38

3

40.5

7

3.5

1.5

2.5

1

3

March & April, 2007

36.5

2.5

41.5

10

2.5

1.5

1

2.5

2

May & June, 2007

33.5

2

43

11

3

2

1.5

1

3

July & August, 2007

42

1.5

37

9.5

3

1.5

1.5

1

3

Tasmania:

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Aust. Dems.

Family First

One Nation

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Senate Election:

March 13, 1993

36.7

42.7

6.8

1.7

n/a

n/a

12.1

March 2, 1996

42.3

39.1

8.7

7.1

n/a

n/a

1.6

October 3, 1998

33.8

41.6

5.8

3.9

n/a

3.8

11.1

November 10, 2001

38.8

36.8

13.8

4.6

n/a

3.3

2.7

October 9, 2004

46.1^

33.5

13.3

0.8

2.4

-

3.9

Morgan Poll:

September & October, 2006

32.5^

39

17.5

0.5

3

-

7.5

November & December, 2006

35.5^

38

15

0.5

3

-

8

January — April 2007*

31.5^

46

14

-

2

-

6.5

May & June, 2007

35^

43

17

-

1.5

-

3.5

July & August, 2007

30^

45

17.5

0.5

2.5

-

4.5

^ Liberal Party only

* The January/February and March/April Tasmanian Senate results were combined due to small sample

Senate Voting Intention — July & August

Area

Gender

Age

Total

City

Country

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Liberal

33.5

35

32

34.5

33

30

29

31.5

38

National

3.5

1

6.5

3

3

3

2

2.5

4

Total L-NP

37

36

38.5

37.5

36

33

31

34

42

ALP

43

45

40

42.5

43.5

44.5

43.5

45

41

The Greens

8.5

9

7.5

8.5

8.5

12.5

12.5

8.5

5.5

Aust. Democrats

4

4

3.5

3.5

4

1.5

5.5

5

3

Family First

2

2

2.5

2

2

3.5

3

2.5

1.5

One Nation

1

0.5

1

0.5

1

1

0.5

1

1

Other

4.5

3.5

7

5.5

5

4

4

4

6

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

10,000

±1

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.