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In Eden Monaro, the top three electoral issues are: Improving health services and hospitals (40%); Reducing the taxes you and your family pay (20%); and Fair workplace and employment regulations (20%), according to Roy Morgan.

The L-NP’s position on the three top issues has eroded substantially since Kevin Rudd became Leader of the Opposition, and the L-NP vote has decreased from 49% on a two-party preferred basis (ALP 51%) down to 38% (ALP 62%).

The table below compares the L-NP’s position in Eden Monaro in the pre-Rudd and post-Rudd periods to June 2007.

Percentage who say the L-NP would be better for each issue:
	Pre-Rudd	Post-Rudd
	%	%
Improving health services & hospitals	37	20
Reducing the taxes you & your family pay	40	29
Fair workplace & employment regulations	27	21

Gary Morgan says:

“Roy Morgan polls every electorate in Australia continuously and over time accumulates a solid picture of each individual electorate’s voting intention and electoral priorities.

“A special analysis of Eden Monaro pre and post Rudd becoming Opposition Leader shows that Eden-Monaro was lost on every count, up until last night when Costello and Howard restarted the clock.  The question will be how can the Howard-Costello team change the fate of the L-NP in each electorate.

“Roy Morgan and www.federalelection.com.au will be reporting on every electorate in Australia up until the day of the election.”

Eden-Monaro Voting Intention

	2004 Election	July 2005 — June 2007	Pre-Rudd	Post-Rudd
	%	%	%	%
Liberal	48.5	39.5	41	32
National	-	1.5	1.5	1
Total L-NP	48.5	41	42.5	33
ALP	38.7	41.5	39	51
Greens	7.4	9.5	9.5	8.5
Democrats	0.9	1	0.5	3
Family First	-	1	1.5	0.5
One Nation	1.8	1	1	-
Independents/ Others	2.7	5	6	4
Total	100	100*	100*	100*
Did not name a party	-	2	1.5	3.5

* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party. 

Eden-Monaro Two-Party Preferred

	2004 Election	July 2005 — June 2007	Pre-Rudd	Post-Rudd
	%	%	%	%
L-NP	52.1	46.5	49	38
ALP	47.9	53.5	51	62
Total	100	100	100	100

These are the main findings of a Morgan Poll conducted face-to-face in the Federal electorate of Eden Monaro between July 2005 and June 2007 with 604 electors.

A detailed profile of every electorate is available for $1,950 at the Roy Morgan Online Store.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.  The following included comment says it all:

“I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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