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Maxine McKew Would Win Bennelong - Howard Closes Gap
Prime Minister John Howard would lose his seat in Bennelong to Maxine McKew if the Federal Election were held today. However, the margin has closed since the same Morgan Poll was conducted in February. Today, Maxine McKew has a higher level of primary support than John Howard. Overall, 42.5% of Bennelong electors said they would vote for John Howard (up 1% since February), compared to 45.5% for Maxine McKew (up 3% since February — before Maxine McKew announced she was standing), 6% (down 5%) Greens and 6% (up 1%) Others. However, after minor party preferences have been allocated Labor leads on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 53% (down 2% from February), Liberal 47% (up 2%), according to a special Bennelong telephone Morgan Poll conducted last Friday night and Saturday and commissioned by The Age. Other The Age Morgan Poll Findings: John Howard’s announcement that he won’t serve a full term if the Coalition wins the Federal election will make no difference to how 77% of Bennelong electors vote. Just 5% say it will make them more likely to vote for Howard, and 17% say it will make them less likely to vote for Howard. When asked whether Mr Howard should contest the next election or retire now, a majority of Bennelong electors (54%, down 1% from February) think Mr Howard should contest the next Federal election, while about one-in-three (35%, down 3%) think he should retire before the election. More than eight-in-ten (81%) Liberal supporters think Howard should contest the election. In Bennelong a majority of electors (53%) think Howard will win the seat of Bennelong compared to 30% who think McKew will be successful. On the question of whether Australia is heading in the right or wrong direction, in Bennelong an increased majority (57%, up 6%) of electors think Australia is heading in the right direction, while less than three-in-ten (28%, down 6%) think Australia is heading in the wrong direction. Bennelong electors were asked who they would vote for if Peter Costello were Prime Minister. In Bennelong primary support for a Costello led L-NP is lower (39.5%) than for a Howard L-NP (42.5%). On a two-party preferred basis a Costello led L-NP would receive 46% of the vote compared to 54% ALP. Gary Morgan says:
These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted for The Age. Interviewing was conducted on September 14/15, 2007, with a cross-section of 472 Bennelong electors. Bennelong Voting Intention
* Figures exclude electors who did not name a party Bennelong Two-Party Preferred
* Figures exclude electors who did not name a party ^ Australian Electoral Commission, http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/b/bennelong.htm Howard to Retire During Natural Term: Electors More or Less Likely to Vote for Mr Howard? Bennelong electors were asked: “Prime Minister John Howard has said that if he is re-elected he will retire as PM during his next term. Does knowing that make you more or less likely to vote for Mr Howard at the next Federal election, or does it make no difference to your vote?”
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution ^ Less than 0.5%
Should John Howard retire? Bennelong electors were asked: “In your opinion, should Mr Howard contest the next Federal election or retire before the election?”
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
Voting Intention if Peter Costello were Prime Minister
* Figures exclude electors who did not name a party Two-Party Preferred if Costello were Prime Minister
* Figures exclude electors who did not name a party ^ Australian Electoral Commission, http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/b/bennelong.htm Australia heading in the right direction? Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
Think will win Bennelong at the next Federal Election? Bennelong electors were asked: “Regardless of who you’d like to win, who do you think will win the seat of Bennelong at the next Federal Election — John Howard or Maxine McKew?”
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
For further information: Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093 Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election. Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading. The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification. |
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