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Special analysis of the August face-to-face Morgan Polls finds that 18% of all electors (38% of all ALP supporters) are Soft ALP voters — it is these voters that are considered the key if the Coalition is to be retained at the Federal election.

More than one-in-five (21%) male electors are classified as Soft ALP voters compared to 15% of female electors. 

Similarly, Australian electors residing in Capitial Cities are more likely than their counrty counterparts to be Soft ALP voters (20% cf. 15%).

In Brisbane, 24.5% of electors are Soft ALP voters, whereas of those located ouside the Queensland metropolitan area just 13% of electors are Soft ALP voters. 

It’s a similar story in Adelaide — 21.5% of electors are Soft ALP voters compared to 12% of electors in regional/country South Australia.

Overall, Victoria (20%) has the highest proportion of electors that are Soft ALP voters followed by Western Australia (19%), whereas New South Wales has the lowest proportion (15.5%).

Analysis by age finds that the younger the elector is the more likely they are to be a Soft ALP voter: 24% of 18-24 year olds are Soft ALP voters, 19% of 25-34 and 35-49 year olds, 16.5% of 50-64 year olds, and 14.5% of those aged 65 and over.

Gary Morgan says:

“For the Coalition to be re-elected it needs to concentrate their efforts on convincing Soft ALP voters to swing back to the Government.  Roy Morgan Qualitative Research has identified for some time that experience and a successful track record in managing the economy are the two main reasons electors vote for the L-NP. 

“This special analysis shows that Soft ALP voters are more likely to be male, aged 18-24 and live in a capital city.”

Strong L-NP voters:      - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and

                                      - would vote L-NP if an election were held today.

Soft L-NP voters:          - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and

                                      - would vote L-NP if an election were held today.

Soft ALP voters:           - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and

                                     - would vote Labor if an election were held today.

Strong ALP voters:       - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and

                                      - would vote Labor if an election were held today.

These are the main findings of special Morgan Poll analysis, conducted face-to-face with 2,938 electors in all electorates throughout Australia during the weekends of August 2007.

Who are the Soft ALP voters?

	Electors	Analysis by Sex & Age
	August 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Strong L-NP voters	33	34.5	31.5	27.5	24	32	32.5	45
Soft L-NP voters	5.5	4.5	6.5	6	4	4.5	6	8
Total L-NP voters	38.5	39	38	33.5	28	36.5	38.5	53
Soft ALP voters	18	21	15	24	19	19	16.5	14.5
Strong ALP voters	29.5	27	32.5	20	34.5	30	32	27
Total ALP voters	47.5	48	47.5	44	53.5	49	48.5	41.5
Greens voters	7	6	7.5	12	12	6.5	5.5	1.5
Ind./Other voters	7	7	7	10.5	6.5	8	7.5	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors	Analysis by Region & State
	August 2007	City	Country	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Strong L-NP voters	33	32	34.5	34.5	31.5	32	29.5	37	34.5
Soft L-NP voters	5.5	5	7	6	4	5	7.5	6.5	1
Total L-NP voters	38.5	37	41.5	40.5	35.5	37	37	43.5	35.5
Soft ALP voters	18	20	15	15.5	20	18.5	18.5	19	22.5
Strong ALP voters	29.5	30	29.5	30	30	32.5	31	21.5	32.5
Total ALP voters	47.5	50	44.5	45.5	50	51	49.5	40.5	55
Greens voters	7	7	6	7	8	5.5	5	9	6.5
Ind./Other voters	7	6	8	7	6.5	6.5	8.5	7	3
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors	Analysis by Region
	August 2007	Sydney	NSW Country	Melbourne	Vic Country	Brisbane	Qld Country	Adelaide	SA Country	Perth	WA Country
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Strong L-NP voters	33	33	36.5	33	27.5	31.5	32.5	26.5	35.5	35.5	40
Soft L-NP voters	5.5	6	7	3	7.5	3	7	7	9	6	8.5
Total L-NP voters	38.5	39	43.5	36	35	34.5	39.5	33.5	44.5	41.5	48.5
Soft ALP voters	18	17	13.5	20	20	24.5	13	21.5	12	21	14.5
Strong ALP voters	29.5	30	29.5	30.5	28	30.5	34	30	33	23.5	17
Total ALP voters	47.5	47	43	50.5	48	55	47	51.5	45	44.5	31.5
Greens voters	7	7.5	5.5	7.5	8.5	7	4.5	5	4	8	10.5
Ind./Other voters	7	6.5	8	6	8.5	3.5	9	10	6.5	6	9.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors	Analysis by what party electors “think will win election”
	August 2007	L-NP	ALP	Undecided
	%	%	%	%
Strong L-NP voters	33	55	22	32.5
Soft L-NP voters	5.5	8	4	5
Total L-NP voters	38.5	63	26	37.5
Soft ALP voters	18	10.5	23	11
Strong ALP voters	29.5	15	37	33
Total ALP voters	47.5	25.5	60	44
Greens voters	7	4.5	7.5	9
Ind./Other voters	7	7	6.5	9.5
Total	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1
5,000	±1.4	±1.2	±0.8	±0.6
10,000	±1	±0.9	±0.6	±0.4
25,000	±0.6	±0.5	±0.4	±0.3
50,000	±0.4	±0.4	±0.3	±0.2

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.  The following included comment says it all:

“I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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