| Finding No. 4220 - This latest New Zealand Morgan Poll on Voting Intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 820 electors between September 17-30, 2007.: October 09, 2007 |
In late-September, the New Zealand Morgan Poll finds support for both major parties has fallen, with the National Party continuing to hold a significant lead — 15.5% — over Labour.
Support for the Labour Government is down 2% to 33% (8.1% below its 2005 General Election result) while support for the Nationals is down 0.5% to 48.5% (9.4% above its 2005 General Election result).
The Green Party vote is up 2% to 9.5%, while support for the Maori Party is down 0.5% to 2.5%.
Among the other minor parties: New Zealand First 3% (up 0.5%); United Future New Zealand 1.5% (up 0.5%); and ACT New Zealand 1% (down 0.5%).
Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
Of electors who said they were likely to vote (91%, up 1.5%), 5% (down 1.5%) were undecided on who they would vote for.
Gary Morgan says:
“The National vote continues to hover just below the 50% mark — where it has been for the better part of five months.
“However, since this Morgan Poll was conducted, a series of gaffes by Nationals leader John Key — including a comment that the Iraq War ‘is over’ — has handed Helen Clark and her Labour Party the best opportunity they have had since Mr. Key became Opposition Leader to make up some significant ground.”
This latest New Zealand Morgan Poll on Voting Intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 820 electors between September 17-30, 2007.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005, General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
Labour |
National |
Progressive Party |
NZ First |
Green Party |
United Future |
Maori Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% | |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
41.3 |
20.9 |
1.7 |
10.4 |
7 |
6.7 |
n/a |
7.1 |
6.6 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
41.1 |
39.1 |
1.16 |
5.72 |
5.3 |
2.67 |
2.12 |
1.51 |
2.48 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|||||||||
|
September 20 - October 2, 2005 |
36.5 |
41.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
October 4-16, 2005 |
39 | 40.5 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 3.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
|
October 18-31, 2005 |
37.5 | 40 | 0.5 | 6 | 9 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 |
|
November 1-14, 2005 |
37.5 | 40 | 0.5 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
|
November 15-27, 2005 |
39 | 40.5 | 1 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 |
|
November 28 - December 9, 2005 |
40 | 40 | 0.5 | 6 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 |
|
January 4-12, 2006 |
40.5 | 42.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
|
January 13—23, 2006 |
39 | 40.5 | 0 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
|
January 24 - February 5, 2006 |
38.5 | 39 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0 |
|
February 7-19, 2006 |
40 | 40 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 10 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 22 - March 6, 2006 |
43 | 39 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
|
March 7-19, 2006 |
42.5 | 41 | 0 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 |
|
March 20 - April 2, 2006 |
40 | 43 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 1.5 |
|
April 3-16, 2006 |
41.5 | 40 | 1 | 3.5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
|
April 17-30, 2006 |
40.5 | 40.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | - |
|
May 1-14, 2006 |
39.5 | 41 | 0.5 | 5 | 7.5 | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 |
|
May 15-28, 2006 |
41 | 44 | 0.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
|
May 29 — June 11, 2006 |
40 | 44.5 | - | 4.5 | 6.5 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | - |
|
June 12-25, 2006 |
37 | 45 | 0.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 |
|
July 3-16, 2006 |
43 | 39 | - | 4.5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 |
|
July 17 - 30, 2006 |
40 | 42 | - | 3.5 | 8.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
|
July 31 - August 13, 2006 |
39 | 41 | - | 3.5 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 |
|
August 14-27, 2006 |
38.5 | 44 | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
|
August 28 - September 10, 2006 |
41 | 38 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | ^ |
|
September 16 - October 1, 2006 |
36 | 41.5 | - | 7 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
|
October 2-15, 2006 |
40 | 40 | ^ | 5 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.5 |
|
October 16-29, 2006 |
38.5 | 41 | ^ | 3 | 8 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
|
October 30 — November 12, 2006 |
38.5 | 42.5 | 0.5 | 5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
|
November 13 - 26, 2006 |
37.5 | 42.5 | ^ | 4.5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 |
|
November 27 - December 12, 2006 |
37.5 | 44.5 | 0.5 | 4 | 9.5 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
|
January 3-21, 2007 |
41 | 41 | 0.5 | 4 | 7.5 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
|
January 23 - February 5, 2007 |
39.5 | 41.5 | 0.5 | 4 | 8 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
|
February 6-18, 2007 |
36 | 48.5 | ^ | 3 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | - |
|
February 19 - March 4, 2007 |
36 | 45 | 0.5 | 2 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
|
March 5-18, 2007 |
37.5 | 45 | ^ | 4 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 1 | - |
|
March 19 - April 2, 2007 |
35.5 | 46 | ^ | 3.5 | 9.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 |
|
April 3-16, 2007 |
33.5 | 45.5 | ^ | 6 | 8.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 |
|
April 23 - May 6, 2007 |
36 | 49.5 | ^ | 4.5 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
|
May 7-20, 2007 |
32 | 49 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
|
May 21 - June 3, 2007 |
33.5 | 50.5 | - | 3.5 | 6.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
|
June 4-17, 2007 |
36 | 49.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
|
June 18 - July 1, 2007 |
34 | 48.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
|
July 2-15, 2007 |
36 | 47 | 0.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
|
July 16-29, 2007 |
35 | 49 | 0.5 | 4 | 6 | 0.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
|
July 30 - August 12, 2007 |
31 | 50.5 | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
|
August 20 - September 2, 2007 |
34 | 48 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
|
September 3-16, 2007 |
35 | 49 | ^ | 2.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
|
September 17-30, 2007 |
33 | 48.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
* The Maori Party was launched in July 2004.
^Result less than 0.5%.
The New Zealand Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate | |||
|
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% | |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
Finding No. 4220 is taken from Computer Report No. 2219
