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The ALP would win in a landslide if the Federal election were to be held now, the latest telephone Morgan Poll finds.

Interviewing conducted late last week (October 4-6) finds the ALP has an 18% lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 59%, L-NP 41%.

Labor’s primary vote is 50%, L-NP 36%, Greens 6.5% and Independent/Other candidates 7.5%.

Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% did not name a party.

Gary Morgan says:

“This latest telephone Morgan Poll is a similar result to last Friday’s ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll — both would result in a massive ALP landslide.

“The 50% who said who said they would vote for Labor comprise of 22.5% ‘Soft ALP’ voters (electors who say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today) and 27.5% ‘Strong ALP’ voters (electors who say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and would vote Labor if an election were held today).  The Morgan Poll considers ‘Soft ALP’ electors to be the key to the upcoming Federal election.

“The Morgan Polls are showing higher levels of support for the ALP than most other polls.  As this is of interest to all poll watchers it is worth noting that the Morgan Poll conducted 'face-to-face' includes those who don’t have telephones and those who only have mobile phones — generally an ALP skewed segment. 

“Results for telephone polls that exclude these people have an inherent L-NP bias.  We believe this explains the difference between the Morgan telephone poll and the Morgan ‘face-to-face’ poll.

“Morgan Polls are weighted by age within sex within area.  We don’t know how other public opinion polls are weighted.  If they are weighted by past vote (the Morgan Poll hasn’t done this since the late 1960s) then the vote would be closer, but would still result in an ALP landslide.”

These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted October 4-6, 2007, with 611 Australian electors.

Detailed analysis (computer tables) of this survey, cross-tabulated by States/Regions and demographics are available for $1,800 on the Roy Morgan Online Store.

Primary Voting Intention

		Telephone Morgan Poll									Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17, 2007 (sample 582 electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556 electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	July 4/5, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	July 11/12, 2007 (sample 600 electors)	July 25/26, 2007 (sample 572 electors)	August 8/9, 2007 (sample 589 electors)	August 21/22, 2007 (sample 633 electors)	October 4-6, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	September 29/30, 2007 (sample 894 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	46.4	39	40	40	35	37.5	35	36.5	36	36	35.5
ALP	37.6	49	46	43.5	49	47.5	48	49.5	51	50	53.5
Greens	7.2	6	7.5	9.5	7	9	9.5	7	7.5	6.5	5.5
Ind./Other	8.8	6	6.5	7	9	6	7.5	7	5.5	7.5	5.5
Total	100	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*
Did not name a party	n/a	5	4.5	4.5	4	3.5	2.5	4	2.2	3.5	4.5

* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party. 

Two-Party Preferred

		Telephone Morgan Poll									Face-to-Face
	2004 Election	May 16-17,  2007 (sample 582  electors)	June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556  electors)	June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors)	July 4/5, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	July 11/12, 2007 (sample 600 electors)	July 25/26, 2007 (sample 572 electors)	August 8/9, 2007 (sample 589 electors)	August 21/22, 2007 (sample 633 electors)	October 4-6, 2007 (sample 611 electors)	September 29/30, 2007 (sample 894 electors)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	52.7	43	45	45	41	42.5	41	41.5	40	41	39
ALP	47.3	57	55	55	59	57.5	59	58.5	60	59	61
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                     Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:                 Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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