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About one-in-four (23%, down 4%) Australian electors are concerned about Labor’s ability to manage economic issues should they win the Federal election later this year.  Eight per cent of electors are concerned about the Coalition’s management of economic issues, a special telephone Morgan Poll finds.

Concern about Labor’s economic credentials are predominantly related to “economic management / a decline in Australia’s prosperity” (19%, unchanged), however, 6% (down 3%) are also concerned that “interest rates will increase” and 1% (down 2%) are concerned about the “cost of housing” under a Labor Government.

The main concern among electors if the Coalition is re-elected is its industrial relations policy (21%, down 1%).  Interestingly, a relatively high 9% (down 3%) say they have concerns about the ALP’s industrial relations policy.

Addressing “Social issues such as health and education” is another major concern if the Coalition is re-elected (14%, up 3%), compared to 6% (up 2%) for the ALP.

Kevin Rudd’s experience in international relations seems to have given electors some confidence with only 3% (down 1%) saying they would be concerned with Labor’s foreign policy should they be successful at the election compared to 10% (down 5%) if the Coalition were re-elected.

Other major concerns if the Coalition win the election are: Handling environmental issues (10%, up 2%); Integrity / Not telling the truth (5%, unchanged); Been in power too long (5%, unchanged); and Leadership uncertainty / Party instability (5%, up 1%).

Other major concerns if the ALP win the election are: Union power (7%, down 1%); Inexperience (6%, down 2%); Handling environmental issues (5%, up 3%); and Integrity / Not telling the truth (3%, up 1%).

In total, 66% (down 1%) of electors have at least one concern if the Coalition is re-elected, marginally above that for the ALP (62%, down 1%).  Electors were able to name multiple concerns.

Twenty-six per cent (down 1%) of electors have no concerns in the ALP wins the election compared to 24% (unchanged) for the Coalition.

Gary Morgan says:

“As was the case when the Morgan Poll asked the same question in early September, economic management (23%, down 4%) is the main concern if the ALP wins the election, while the Coalition’s industrial relations policy is the main concern if the Government is re-elected, although the proportion of electors who are concerned about these issues is marginally down (21%, down 1%).  Nine per cent (down 3%) say they have concerns about the ALP’s industrial relations policy — a widening of the gap!

“With domestic issues at the forefront of political debate in recent weeks, focus has been taken off the Government’s foreign policy, including the War in Iraq, which largely explains why the number of electors concerned about the Coalition’s foreign policy has dropped 5% to 10%.  However, with the death of Australian Trooper David Pearce in Afghanistan earlier this week, the spotlight will once again be on John Howard and his decision to have Australian troops based in the Middle East.”

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll, which was conducted on October 4-6, 2007, with 611 Australian electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Concerns if win at the next Federal election:

Respondents were asked:

1. “What, if anything, would concern you if the Liberal National Coalition were to win the upcoming Federal Election?”

2. "What, if anything, would concern you if Labor were to win the upcoming Federal Election?”

Concerns	% concerned if L-NP win		% concerned if ALP win
	Aug 21/22	Oct 4-6	Aug 21/22	Oct 4-6
Economic management / Decline in Australia’s prosperity	5	4	19	19
Interest rates will increase	7	3	9	6
Cost of housing	5	2	3	1
TOTAL ECONOMIC ISSUES*	13	8	27	23
Industrial relations policy	22	21	12	9
Social issues such as health and education	11	14	4	6
Foreign policy including the War in Iraq	15	10	4	3
Handling environmental issues	8	10	2	5
Integrity / Not telling truth	5	5	2	3
Been in power too long	5	5	-	-
Leadership uncertainty / Party instability	4	5	-	^
Immigration issues	1	3	^	1
Loss of civil liberties	1	2	-	-
Things will continue the way they have been	1	2	-	-
Increased risk of terrorism	3	1	^	^
Gap between rich and poor	2	1	-	-
Taking power from the states	2	^	-	-
Uranium mining / Nuclear power	2	^	^	^
Tax issues	1	^	-	-
Union power	-	-	8	7
Inexperience	-	-	8	6
ALP control all Governments	-	-	2	2
No different to L-NP / Liberal	-	-	1	1
Don't like their policies/ Changes	-	-	1	^
Do things too fast / Too radical	-	-	1	^
No policies / No direction	-	-	1	1
Unemployment / Job Security	^	-	^	^
Party instability / Internal factions	-	-	^	^
Petrol prices	^	-	-	-
Pork barrelling	^	-	^	-
Everything going downhill	^	^	-	-
Don't like Howard / Should retire	^	^	-	-
Farmers / Rural areas worse off	^	-	-	-
Other	12	10	10	11
TOTAL HAVE CONCERN(S)**	67	66	63	62
No concern(s)	24	24	27	26
Can’t say	9	10	10	12

* Percentage of respondents who are concerned with at least one economic issue

** Some respondents mentioned more than one concern

^ Less than 1%

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1
5,000	±1.4	±1.2	±0.8	±0.6
10,000	±1	±0.9	±0.6	±0.4
25,000	±0.6	±0.5	±0.4	±0.3
50,000	±0.4	±0.4	±0.3	±0.2

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.  The following included comment says it all:

“I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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