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Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd began strongly but Prime Minister John Howard gained momentum, and after the closing remarks, the debate finished with little between the two leaders, according to Roy Morgan’s Reactor.

On Sunday night and first thing this morning, electors all over Australia reacted to the highs and lows of the debate. An Australia-wide sample of electors was selected by Roy Morgan Research using a stratified random probability sampling methodology designed to provide a representative sample of the Australian electorate. Using the Roy Morgan Reactor, respondents reacted online to key segments of the debate.

Mr Rudd clearly began the debate in a solid position — his supporters (the ALP red line) were positive throughout, and the blue line (L-NP supporters) was not far below the mid point. Mr Howard began less well, the blue line was just above mid point, and the red-line just below. However, by the closing speeches, Mr Howard had moved the blue line to the top of the chart, and the red line was just below the mid-point — a strategic positive for Mr Howard.

On most of the key issues, throughout the 90 minute debate, the Reactor split along party lines (the red line positive to Mr Rudd and negative to Mr Howard; and the blue line positive to Mr Howard and negative to Mr Rudd).

However, on the issue of Economic Management the reaction to Mr Rudd was generally positive. The Union issue divided the electorate sharply — for both leaders. Only when Mr Howard mentioned business, and the need to be ‘balanced’ did the overt party-lines soften, and he gained some support.

On Taxation, the generally polarised electorate reacted favourably to Mr Rudd’s point about $3 billion tax cuts going to those earning $180K or more.

On Climate change, Mr Rudd initially polarised the electorate, his dialogue on ‘interim  targets’ then lost the red line, which only improved slightly when ‘science’ was mentioned. Mr Howard began slowly — the reaction was ‘soft’ polarisation (the blue line slightly positive, the red line slightly negative). The ‘climate change fund’ received a similar ‘soft’ reaction, but the recognition of support needed to help the poorer parts of society with the costs associated with environmental initiatives received a positive reaction.

Michele Levine (CEO, Roy Morgan Research) says:

“Because of the Australia-wide scope and coverage of the Reactor sample and the finely graded measurement technology, for the first time, the subtlety of the Australian electorate’s response to the two leaders and their discussion of issues is captured by the Roy Morgan Reactor.

“The key issue is how the ‘soft ALP’ voters responded to the range of issues covered in the debate, as well as the particular reaction of country Australians and those in marginal seats.

“The Reactor uses a finely graduated scale (a slider bar — scaled from extremely negative on the left to extremely positive on the right). Results are available for viewing showing ALP responses (the red line) and L-NP responses (the blue line).”

This detailed analysis of the Roy Morgan Reactor is available for $19,800.

To purchase or enquire about the CD-ROM contact Luke Griffiths on +61 3 9223 2466.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office + 61 3 9224 5213          Mobile + 61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:          Office + 61 3 9224 5215          Mobile + 61 411 129 093

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