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Analysis of September face-to-face Morgan Polls finds that support for the Coalition was 36.5% (down 2% from August), while support for the ALP was 51.5% (up 4%).

With the exception of New South Wales and South Australia, support for the ALP was higher in the capital cities during September when compared to their country counterparts.

In Brisbane, ALP primary support for September was a large 57%, followed not far behind by Melbourne (54.5%).  Of all the capital cities, support for the ALP was lowest in Perth (39%).

Nationally, support for the L-NP was highest in Western Australia Country (51%), while among metropolitan areas support for the Coalition was highest in Perth (46%), well clear of second placed Sydney (37%).  In Brisbane, support for the L-NP was only 31.5%.

Primary support for the Greens fell 0.5% to 6.5% during September, with support highest in Perth (11%), Melbourne (8.5%) and Tasmania (8%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP increased their already strong position during September with primary support up 4% from August.  In contrast, support for the Coalition was down 2% to 36.5%.

“Throughout September the ALP maintained their stronghold on Queensland — the home state of Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd — with support in Brisbane at a very high 57%, whereas Western Australia continued to buck the national trend with Coalition support in both Perth (46%) and WA Country (51%) well above support for Labor.

“The vote will become closer as the National Party becomes more ‘aggressive’ in NSW, Victoria and Queensland Country, and as the Greens become more ‘aggressive’ in Tasmania, Western Australia and the seat of Melbourne.  Similarly, in many seats independent candidates will play a major role.”

These are the main findings of September face-to-face Morgan Polls, conducted face-to-face with 4,580 electors in all electorates throughout Australia during the weekends of September 2007.

Federal Voting Intention

	All Electors		Analysis by Area
	Aug 2007	Sept 2007	NSW City	NSW Country^	Vic City	Vic Country	Qld City	Qld Country	SA City	SA Country*	WA City	WA Country	Tasmania
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Liberal Party	35.5	34	37	27	33	34	30.5	33	31.5	37	45.5	51	35
National Party	3	2.5	-	5.5	0.5	6.5	1	5.5	0.5	2	0.5	-	-
Total L-NP	38.5	36.5	37	32.5	33.5	40.5	31.5	38.5	32	39	46	51	35
ALP	47.5	51.5	52.5	52.5	54.5	51.5	57	50.5	50.5	52	39	31.5	56
Greens	7	6.5	6	7.5	8.5	3	5	4.5	5.5	3	11	7.5	8
Democrats	1	1	1.5	1	1	1	1.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5	5.5	-
Family First	1.5	1.5	0.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	3	1.5	5.5	3	-	-	0.5
One Nation	1	0.5	0.5	1.5	0.5	1.5	0.5	1	0.5	1.5	1	-	-
Others/Independent	3.5	2.5	2	3.5	0.5	1	1.5	3.5	3.5	0.5	2.5	4.5	0.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

^ NSW Country includes ACT

* SA Country includes Northern Territory

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                     Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:                 Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
5,000	±1.4	±1.2	±0.8	±0.6

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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