In New Zealand: Labour Support Up 6%
| Finding No. 4232 -
October 26, 2007 |
In the first half of October, the New Zealand Morgan Poll finds support for the Labour Government jumped 6% to 39% — its highest result since early February and just 2.1% below its 2005 General Election result.
During the same period, support for the Nationals fell 3% to 45.5% — its lowest result since April and 6.4% above its 2005 General Election result.
The Green Party vote was down 2% to 7.5%, while support for New Zealand First was unchanged at 3%.
Among the other minor parties: Maori Party 2% (down 0.5%); United Future New Zealand 1.5% (unchanged); and ACT New Zealand 0.5% (down 0.5%).
Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
Of electors who said they were likely to vote (90.5%, down 0.5%), 6% (up 1%) were undecided on who they would vote for.
Gary Morgan says:
“As was suggested in the previous New Zealand Morgan Poll, National Leader John Key’s recent policy gaffes have handed Helen Clark and her Labour Government a golden opportunity to make up some ground.
“In the first fortnight of October, Labour has closed the gap from 15.5% to 6.5% — the closest it has been since early February.
“Prime Minister Clark will also be buoyed by a 12 point rise in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating during the same period. Historically, the vote for the incumbent Government trends in the same direction as Consumer Confidence.”
This latest Morgan Poll on Voting Intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 808 electors between October 1-14, 2007.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005, General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Party |
NZ First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
41.3 |
20.9 |
1.7 |
10.4 |
7 |
6.7 |
n/a |
7.1 |
6.6 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
41.1 |
39.1 |
1.16 |
5.72 |
5.3 |
2.67 |
2.12 |
1.51 |
2.48 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 20 - October 2, 2005 |
36.5 |
41.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
October 4-16, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
3.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 18-31, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
9 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
November 1-14, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
November 15-27, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 28 - December 9, 2005 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
January 4-12, 2006 |
40.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 13—23, 2006 |
39 |
40.5 |
0 |
4.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 24 - February 5, 2006 |
38.5 |
39 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
9.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0 |
|
February 7-19, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
10 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 22 - March 6, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
March 7-19, 2006 |
42.5 |
41 |
0 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March 20 - April 2, 2006 |
40 |
43 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 3-16, 2006 |
41.5 |
40 |
1 |
3.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 17-30, 2006 |
40.5 |
40.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
- |
|
May 1-14, 2006 |
39.5 |
41 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May 15-28, 2006 |
41 |
44 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
May 29 — June 11, 2006 |
40 |
44.5 |
- |
4.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
- |
|
June 12-25, 2006 |
37 |
45 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 3-16, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
- |
4.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 17 - 30, 2006 |
40 |
42 |
- |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 31 - August 13, 2006 |
39 |
41 |
- |
3.5 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 14-27, 2006 |
38.5 |
44 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 28 - September 10, 2006 |
41 |
38 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
September 16 - October 1, 2006 |
36 |
41.5 |
- |
7 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 2-15, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
^ |
5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
|
October 16-29, 2006 |
38.5 |
41 |
^ |
3 |
8 |
3 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
|
October 30 — November 12, 2006 |
38.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
November 13 - 26, 2006 |
37.5 |
42.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 27 - December 12, 2006 |
37.5 |
44.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 3-21, 2007 |
41 |
41 |
0.5 |
4 |
7.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 23 - February 5, 2007 |
39.5 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 6-18, 2007 |
36 |
48.5 |
^ |
3 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
- |
|
February 19 - March 4, 2007 |
36 |
45 |
0.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
March 5-18, 2007 |
37.5 |
45 |
^ |
4 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
- |
|
March 19 - April 2, 2007 |
35.5 |
46 |
^ |
3.5 |
9.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
April 3-16, 2007 |
33.5 |
45.5 |
^ |
6 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 23 - May 6, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 7-20, 2007 |
32 |
49 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
May 21 - June 3, 2007 |
33.5 |
50.5 |
- |
3.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 4-17, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
June 18 - July 1, 2007 |
34 |
48.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 2-15, 2007 |
36 |
47 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 16-29, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
0.5 |
4 |
6 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
July 30 - August 12, 2007 |
31 |
50.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 20 - September 2, 2007 |
34 |
48 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
September 3-16, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
^ |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September 17-30, 2007 |
33 |
48.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
| October 1-14, 2007 |
39 |
45.5 |
^ |
3 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
* The Maori Party was launched in July 2004
^Result less than 0.5%
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
Finding No. 4232 is taken from Computer Report No. 2223
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