Coalition Closes Gap On Labor
| Finding No. 4233 -
October 26, 2007 |
With four weeks to go before the Federal election, the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll (October 20/21) shows the ALP 12 points ahead of the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis (56% cf. 44%).
An Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (October 24/25) shows an even narrower gap of nine points (ALP 54.5%, L-NP 45.5%).
If an election were held today, the ALP would still win easily.
Face-to-face Morgan Poll
On the weekend of the ‘Great Debate’ between John Howard and Kevin Rudd, primary support for the Coalition was 39.5% (unchanged from the previous face-to-face Morgan Poll), while support for the ALP was 47% (down 2.5%).
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 56% (down 1%), L-NP 44% (up 1%).
Currently, support for The Greens is 8% (up 1%), Family First 2% (up 1.5%), One Nation 1% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1% (unchanged), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 1.5% (down 0.5%).
A reduced majority of electors (54%, down 8%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election, while (33%, up 7.5%) think the L-NP will win and 13% (up 0.5%) can’t say.
Now, 53.5% (down 4%) think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while 30% (up 1%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” — 16.5% (up 3%) are undecided.
Currently, 19% (down 3.5%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today. The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.
Telephone Morgan Poll
An Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll conducted this week (October 24/25) finds Coalition support at 41% (up 1.5% from last week’s telephone Morgan Poll) while the ALP primary vote is 44% (down 1%).
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 54.5% (down 1%), L-NP 45.5% (up 1%).
Currently, support for The Greens is 10.5% (up 1.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (up 1%), Family First 1% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 1.5% (down 2%).
Tasmanian Federal Vote
Special analysis of Tasmanian voting preference combining the samples from the last two telephone Morgan Polls and face-to-face Morgan Polls finds a significant fall in the ALP vote since they gave bi-partisan support for the Tamar Valley Pulp Mill. Support for the Greens has increased 12.5% from 8% to 20.5%.
|
|
September
(Pre ‘Gunns’)
% |
October
(Post ‘Gunns’)
% |
|
Liberal Party |
35 |
34.5 |
|
ALP |
56 |
38 |
|
Greens |
8 |
20.5 |
|
Family First |
0.5 |
2 |
|
Others/Independent |
0.5 |
5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
Gary Morgan says:
“The latest Morgan Polls show the Coalition continuing to close the gap each week. This should not be a surprise to anyone who has watched the historical progress of referenda in Australia. The initial support for a ‘new idea’ or constitutional change flattens out as the time to ‘vote’ approaches — with very few referenda being passed in Australia.
“The ‘gap’ will continue to close, and be much closer at election time.
“However, there are two crucial ‘sleepers’ in this election. Firstly, real ‘unemployment’ and the danger that the RBA will believe the ‘sanitised’ Government unemployment figures and increase interest rates, when real unemployment is actually 5.8% (38% higher than the Government’s seasonally adjusted 4.2%).
“Secondly, the Tasmanian Gunns Pulp Mill Project. The dramatic increase in Greens support in Tasmania and the growing support for the Greens across Australia since the L-NP and the ALP both declared their support for this unpopular project — this is not an issue that will ‘just go away’. As well as the apparent disregard for Australia’s growing environmental concern, this has the potential to raise issues of corruption and dishonesty in Government.
“For the academics: Telephone polls have two inherent biases:
1. The sample (by design) only includes those who have telephones (approximately 1% bias toward L-NP).
2. The sample achieved has a much lower response rate than face-to-face interviews (approximately twice as many people refuse to answer as refuse face-to-face). The ‘bias’ caused by this rate is less ‘tangible’ and ‘predictable’. Historically, Roy Morgan Research has evidence that supporters of the party that is ‘out of favour’ tend to be over represented among those who ‘refuse’ to be interviewed. However, a compelling event or news story can generate a desire for people to ‘have their say’ — so create its own bias.
“Historically, we have noted more volatility associated with day-to-day events in telephone polls than in face to face-to-face polls. For this reason Roy Morgan Research tracks voting intention by both face-to-face and telephone interviews.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”
This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of October 20/21, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 996 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4% (unchanged) did not name a party.
The latest Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the nights of October 24/25, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 520 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 2% (down 2.5%) did not name a party.
During the period:
• Prime Minister John Howard and Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd participated in a live Leader’s debate;
• Deputy Labor Leader Julia Gillard faced accusations that she has links with communism after Treasurer Peter Costello questioned her membership of the Socialist Forum group more than 20 years ago;
• Federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd announced a $31 billion tax plan which included a $2.3 billion education tax refund scheme; and
• Leading businessman Richard Pratt faces a $36 million fine following his involvement in a price fixing cartel.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates |
| |
May
26/27 |
June
2/3 |
June 9/10
& 16/17 |
June 23/24 &
June 30/July 1 |
July 7/8
& 14/15 |
July 21/22
& 28/29 |
Aug 4/5
& 11/12 |
Aug 18/19
& 25/26 |
Sep
1/2 |
Sep
8/9 |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
22/23 |
Sep
29/30 |
Oct
6/7 |
Oct
13/14 |
Oct
17/18^ |
Oct
20/21 |
Oct
24/25^ |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
50.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
51.5 |
55.5 |
49 |
49 |
48.5 |
47 |
48 |
52.5 |
52 |
49.5 |
53 |
57.5 |
53 |
53.5 |
63.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
32.5 |
33.5 |
31 |
30 |
33.5 |
34.5 |
33 |
34.5 |
37 |
32 |
32 |
34.5 |
28.5 |
29 |
31.5 |
30 |
28 |
|
Can’t say |
16.5 |
19 |
15 |
17.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
16.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
16 |
16 |
18.5 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
8.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
^Phone Poll
VOTING STRENGTH
| |
Interviewing Dates |
| |
May
26/27 |
June
2/3 |
June 9/10
& 16/17 |
June 23/24 &
June 30/July 1 |
July 7/8
& 14/15 |
July 21/22
& 28/29 |
Aug 4/5
& 11/12 |
Aug 18/19
& 25/26 |
Sep
1/2 |
Sep
8/9 |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
22/23 |
Sep
29/30 |
Oct
6/7 |
Oct 13/14 |
Oct 17/18^ |
Oct 20/21 |
Oct
24/25^ |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Strong L-NP voters |
32 |
32 |
32.5 |
31 |
36 |
34 |
31.5 |
34.5 |
28.5 |
32 |
34.5 |
32.5 |
30 |
33 |
34.5 |
30 |
35 |
35.5 |
|
Soft L-NP voters |
5.5 |
6 |
4.5 |
5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
6 |
4 |
5 |
3.5 |
5.5 |
5 |
5 |
9.5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
|
Total L-NP voters |
37.5 |
38 |
37 |
36 |
40.5 |
40.5 |
36.5 |
41 |
34.5 |
36 |
39.5 |
36 |
35.5 |
38 |
39.5 |
39.5 |
39.5 |
41 |
|
Soft ALP voters |
17.5 |
19 |
19 |
20.5 |
19.5 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
18.5 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
22.5 |
17.5 |
19 |
23 |
|
Strong ALP voters |
31.5 |
32 |
29 |
30 |
28 |
30 |
30.5 |
29 |
30.5 |
34 |
30.5 |
34 |
32 |
28 |
27 |
27.5 |
28 |
21 |
|
Total ALP voters |
49 |
51 |
48 |
50.5 |
47.5 |
47 |
49.5 |
46 |
49 |
51 |
49.5 |
54 |
53.5 |
49.5 |
49.5 |
45 |
47 |
44 |
|
Greens voters |
6 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
7 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
7 |
6.5 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
10.5 |
|
Ind./Other voters |
7.5 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
7 |
6.5 |
6 |
7 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
7 |
5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
4 |
6.5 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
|
Total |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
|
Did not name a party |
3 |
5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
5 |
4 |
4.5 |
5 |
5.5 |
4 |
5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
4 |
4.5 |
4 |
2 |
* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party.
^Phone Poll
Strong L-NP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and
- would vote L-NP if an election were held today.
Soft L-NP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and
- would vote L-NP if an election were held today.
Soft ALP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and
- would vote Labor if an election were held today.
Strong ALP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and
- would vote Labor if an election were held today.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004 |
56 |
28 |
16 |
|
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
55.5 |
30 |
14.5 |
|
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004 |
63.5 |
23 |
13.5 |
|
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
|
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
69.5 |
19.5 |
11 |
|
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
|
March 5/6, 2005 |
57 |
31 |
12 |
|
March 12/13, 2005 |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
|
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
|
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
55 |
31.5 |
13.5 |
|
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
|
May 14/15, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
|
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
|
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
61 |
27 |
12 |
|
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
|
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
|
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
61.5 |
26 |
12.5 |
|
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
61.5 |
24.5 |
14 |
|
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
61 |
24.5 |
14.5 |
|
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
|
September 10/11, 2005 |
60.5 |
27 |
12.5 |
|
September 17/18, 2005 |
66 |
21.5 |
12.5 |
|
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
65 |
24 |
11 |
|
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
|
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
60 |
26.5 |
13.5 |
|
November 5/6, 2005 |
55 |
32.5 |
12.5 |
|
November 12/13, 2005 |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
|
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50 |
36.5 |
13.5 |
|
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
54.5 |
33 |
12.5 |
|
December 17/18, 2005 |
58 |
28 |
14 |
|
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
59 |
27 |
14 |
|
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
65 |
25 |
10 |
|
February 4/5, 2006 |
62 |
27 |
11 |
|
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
|
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
66 |
23 |
11 |
|
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
69 |
20.5 |
10.5 |
|
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
64.5 |
25 |
10.5 |
|
April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006 |
62 |
26.5 |
11.5 |
|
April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
63.5 |
24.5 |
12 |
|
May 6/7, 2006 |
60.5 |
28 |
11.5 |
|
May 13/14, 2006 |
70 |
20 |
10 |
|
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
64.5 |
22 |
13.5 |
|
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
61.5 |
26.5 |
12 |
|
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
|
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
56.5 |
30 |
13.5 |
|
July 15/16, 2006 |
61 |
28 |
11 |
|
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
59.5 |
29 |
11.5 |
|
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
|
August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
|
September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
58 |
30 |
12 |
|
September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
59.5 |
27.5 |
13 |
|
September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
|
October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
|
October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
|
November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
58 |
29.5 |
12.5 |
|
November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
58 |
28.5 |
13.5 |
|
December 9/10, 2006 |
46 |
39.5 |
14.5 |
|
December 16/17, 2006 |
45.5 |
41 |
13.5 |
|
January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007 |
48 |
38.5 |
13.5 |
|
January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007 |
47.5 |
38.5 |
14 |
| February 3/4, 2007 |
43 |
44 |
13 |
| February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 |
40 |
45.5 |
14.5 |
| February 23/24, 2007 |
31.5 |
52.5 |
16 |
| March 3/4, 2007 |
39.5 |
47.5 |
13 |
| March 10/11, 2007 |
36 |
50 |
14 |
| March 17/18, 2007 |
30.5 |
54.5 |
15 |
| March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 |
31 |
56.5 |
12.5 |
| April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
31.5 |
55 |
13.5 |
| April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
29.5 |
55.5 |
15 |
| May 5/6, 2007 |
33 |
55 |
12 |
| May 12/13, 2007 |
38 |
49 |
13 |
| May 19/20, 2007 |
32 |
55 |
13 |
| May 26/27, 2007 |
33 |
55 |
12 |
| June 2/3, 2007 |
28.5 |
59 |
12.5 |
| June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 |
35.5 |
50 |
14.5 |
| June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 |
37 |
50 |
13 |
| July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
34.5 |
52 |
13.5 |
| July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
28 |
58 |
14 |
| August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 |
28 |
60 |
12 |
| August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 |
31.5 |
55 |
13.5 |
| September 1/2 , 2007 |
26.5 |
60.5 |
13 |
| September 8/9, 2007 |
24.5 |
66 |
9.5 |
| September 15/16, 2007 |
26 |
63 |
11 |
| September 22/23, 2007 |
30.5 |
56.5 |
13 |
|
September 29/30, 2007 |
27 |
61 |
12 |
| October 6/7, 2007 |
27.5 |
61 |
11.5 |
| October 13/14, 2007 |
25.5 |
62 |
12.5 |
| October 17/18, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
31.5 |
55.5 |
13 |
| October 20/21, 2007 |
33 |
54 |
13 |
| October 24/25, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
27 |
63.5 |
9.5 |
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem.# |
The
Greens |
Family
First# |
One
Nation# |
Ind./
Others |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
* |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
* |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
* |
4.3 |
5.1 |
| Election October 9, 2004 |
46.4 (5.9) |
37.6 |
1.2 |
7.2 |
2 |
1.2 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
44.5 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
44 (3) |
39 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
46.5 (2.5) |
36 |
1.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
45.5 (3) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
47 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
37.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
46 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
44.5 (2.5) |
37 |
1 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
39 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
40.5 (1.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
42 (2) |
40 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
42(2.5) |
42.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
43(1.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
0.5 |
4 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
45 (2) |
39 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
43.5 (1.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
42.5 (2) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
41.5 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
6 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
41.5 (4) |
42 |
2 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
39 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1.5 |
5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4 |
44 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
39.5 (3) |
41.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
3 |
0.5 |
7 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
34.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
42 (3.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
39.5 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
39 (3.5) |
41 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
38.5 (3) |
43 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
43.5 (3) |
38 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
- |
6 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
35.5 (2.5) |
45.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
38.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
39.5 (4) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
39 (3.5) |
43 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
42 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40 (3) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
43 (3.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
44 (3.5) |
38.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
39 (2) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
38.5 (2) |
42 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (3) |
39 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
42 (3.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
39.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (3) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
45 (2.5) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
3.5 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
38 (2.5) |
43 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
4.5 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42 |
2 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
41.5 (3.5) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40.5 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41 |
1.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| December 9/10, 2006 |
34.5 (3) |
50 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| December 16/17, 2006 |
35.5 (3.5) |
49 |
2.5 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
| January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007 |
36.5 (3) |
47 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007 |
39 (2.5) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| February 3/4, 2007 |
37 (2.5) |
47 |
2 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
| February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 |
38 (2.5) |
48 |
1.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| February 24/25, 2007 |
34 (3.5) |
52.5 |
0.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
3 |
| March 3/4, 2007 |
33 (3.5) |
51.5 |
2 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 10/11, 2007 |
34 (3) |
51.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| March 17/18, 2007 |
36 (2.5) |
48.5 |
1 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 |
34.5 (3) |
49.5 |
1.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
35.5 (3.5) |
50 |
1 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
| April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
34.5 (3.5) |
52.5 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| May 5/6, 2007 |
35.5 (2) |
51.5 |
1 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| May 12/13, 2007 |
36 (2) |
51 |
1 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
| May 19/20, 2007 |
35.5 (2) |
51 |
1 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
| May 26/27, 2007 |
37.5 (2) |
49 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
1.5 |
3 |
| June 2/3, 2007 |
38 (2.5) |
51 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
| June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 |
37 (2.5) |
48 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 |
36 (2.5) |
50.5 |
0.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
40.5 (2.5) |
47.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
2 |
^ |
3 |
| July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
40.5 (2.5) |
47 |
1 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 |
36.5 (3) |
49.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 |
41 (2.5) |
46 |
1 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
3 |
| September 1/2, 2007 |
34.5(1.5) |
49 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
0.5 |
3 |
| September 8/9, 2007 |
36 (2) |
51 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| September 15/16, 2007 |
39.5 (3) |
49.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
| September 22/23, 2007 |
36 (2.5) |
54 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| September 29/30, 2007 |
35.5 (2) |
53.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
| October 6/7, 2007 |
38 (2.5) |
49.5 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
0.5 |
3 |
| October 13/14, 2007 |
39.5 (3) |
49.5 |
1 |
7 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
| October 17/18, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
39.5 (2.5) |
45 |
0.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| October 20/21, 2007 |
39.5 (2.5) |
47 |
1 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
| October 24/25, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
41 (3) |
44 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
^ Less than 0.5%
*The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2004 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
51 |
49 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49 |
51 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
50 |
50 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
47 |
53 |
48 |
52 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46 |
54 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
50 |
50 |
51 |
49 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
43 |
57 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
50 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
51 |
49 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
50 |
50 |
49 |
51 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
49 |
51 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
52 |
48 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46 |
54 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45 |
55 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
53 |
| October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
48 |
52 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| December 9/10, 2006 |
40 |
60 |
41 |
59 |
| December 16/17, 2006 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41 |
59 |
| January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| February 3/4, 2007 |
43 |
57 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 |
43 |
57 |
43 |
57 |
| February 24/25, 2007 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
| March 3/4, 2007 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
| March 10/11, 2007 |
38 |
62 |
39 |
61 |
| March 17/18, 2007 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
| March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40 |
60 |
| April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
40 |
60 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
| April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
61 |
| May 5/6, 2007 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
60 |
| May 12/13, 2007 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
| May 19/20, 2007 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
40 |
60 |
| May 26/27, 2007 |
43 |
57 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| June 2/3, 2007 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
58 |
| June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
59 |
| July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
55 |
| July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45 |
55 |
| August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
| August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 |
46 |
54 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| September 1/2, 2007 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
40 |
60 |
| September 8/9, 2007 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
41 |
59 |
| September 15/16, 2007 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
| September 22/23, 2007 |
39 |
61 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
| September 29/30, 2007 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
61 |
| October 6/7, 2007 |
43 |
57 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| October 13/14, 2007 |
43 |
57 |
43 |
57 |
| October 17/18, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
44.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
| October 20/21, 2007 |
44 |
56 |
44 |
56 |
| October 24/25, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
44 |
56 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)
| |
September 29/30 |
October 6/7 |
October 13/14^ |
October 20/21 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Australian Democrats# |
7.5 |
92.5 |
28 |
72 |
13.5 |
86.5 |
25 |
75 |
|
The Greens |
23 |
77 |
21 |
79 |
4.5 |
95.5 |
17.5 |
82.5 |
|
Family First# |
55 |
45 |
60 |
40 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
81.5 |
18.5 |
|
One Nation# |
17.5 |
82.5 |
36 |
64 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
77 |
23 |
|
Independent/Other # |
46 |
54 |
44 |
56 |
66.5 |
33.5 |
38 |
62 |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
^ Face-to-face results
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The “face-to-face” Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week.
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
Finding No. 4233 is taken from Computer Report No. 2224
|
