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The first Morgan Poll since this week’s interest rate rise (interviewing conducted by telephone November 7/8) finds the ALP has a 12% lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 56% (up 1.5% from the last telephone Morgan Poll on October 24/25), L-NP 44% (down 1.5%).

However, the face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend (November 3/4) showed the ALP with a record lead of 24% (62% cf. 38%).  Although this was before the increase in interest rates, the latest CPI figure had been released, foreshadowing a likely interest rate rise.  It was also after Tony Abbott made derogatory remarks about asbestos sufferer Bernie Banton, as well as turning up late for his debate with Nicola Roxon, in which he was caught swearing on camera.

The ALP would win in a landslide if the Federal election were to be held now, the latest Morgan Polls finds.

Telephone Morgan Poll

The Coalition’s primary vote is 39% (down 2% from the last telephone Morgan Poll), while Labor’s primary vote is 44.5% (up 0.5%).

Among the minor parties: Greens 10.5% (unchanged); Democrats 2% (up 0.5%); Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%); One Nation 1% (up 0.5%); and Independent/Other candidates 1.5% (unchanged).

A majority of electors (58.5%, down 5%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election, while (28.5%, up 1.5%) think the L-NP will win and 13% (up 3.5%) can’t say. 

Now, 55.5% (down 8%) think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while 31% (up 3%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” — 13.5% (up 5%) are undecided.

Currently, 19% (down 4%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today.  The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.

Face-to-face Morgan Poll

On the weekend prior to the interest rate rise, primary support for the Coalition was 34% (down 5% from the previous face-to-face Morgan Poll), while support for the ALP was 54.5% (up 5.5%). 

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote was ALP 62% (up 4.5%), L-NP 38% (down 4.5%).

Support for The Greens was 6% (down 1.5%), Family First 2% (up 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2.5% (up 0.5%).

A majority of electors (58.5%, down 0.5%) thought the ALP would win the next Federal election, while (28.5%, down 0.5%) thought the L-NP would win and 13% (up 1%) couldn’t say. 

Fifty per cent (down 6%) thought Australia was heading in the “right direction”, while 30.5% (up 0.5%) thought Australia was heading in the “wrong direction” — 19.5% (up a significant 5.5%) were undecided.

Twenty-three per cent (up 1.5%) of all electors said Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet said they would vote Labor if an election were held today. 

Gary Morgan says:

“The 12 point lead in the latest telephone Morgan Poll — conducted after the RBA announced an interest rate rise — represents an increase in the ALP lead of 3% compared to the previous telephone poll.  However, it is still less than the 24% lead recorded in the last face-to-face Morgan Poll — conducted before the interest rate increase was officially announced, but after Tony Abbott’s gaffes and the increase in the latest CPI figures.

“The issue of interest rates has not yet been fully played out in the political arena.  The real question is how the electorate will respond to the latest interest rate increase — will they blame the Government and consider ‘record interest rates’ promises by Mr Howard, will they blame the global financial economy and look to the L-NP Government, as strong economic managers, to lead the country in the coming turbulent economic times?

“This renewed focus on finance and the economy will also reinstate the IR debate to the front of electors’ minds.

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” 

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of November 3/4, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 990 electors.  Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party. 

The latest Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the nights of November 7/8, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 552 electors.  Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (up 1.5%) did not name a party. 

DURING THE PERIOD:

• The Reserve Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.75%;
• Federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd was forced to clarify his position on climate change when Opposition environment spokesman Peter Garrett said a Labor government would be willing commit to a new emissions target without having developing countries onboard;
• Treasurer Peter Costello and his Labor counterpart Wayne Swan took part in a debate at the National Press Club;
• Family First candidate Andrew Quah was expelled from the party after compromising photographs appeared on the Internet;
• Federal Health Minister Tony Abbot was forced to apologise after arriving half an hour late for a debate with his Labor counterpart Nicola Roxon. He was then caught on camera swearing at her; and
• Efficient won the Melbourne Cup.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	Interviewing Dates
	May 26/27	June 2/3	June 9/10 & 16/17	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1	July 7/8 & 14/15	July 21/22 & 28/29	Aug 4/5 & 11/12	Aug 18/19 & 25/26	Sep 1/2	Sep 8/9	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 6/7	Oct 13/14	Oct 17/18^	Oct 20/21	Oct 24/25^
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	50.5	48.5	51.5	51.5	55.5	49	49	48.5	47	48	52.5	52	49.5	53	57.5	53	53.5	63.5
Wrong direction	33	32.5	33.5	31	30	33.5	34.5	33	34.5	37	32	32	34.5	28.5	29	31.5	30	28
Can’t say	16.5	19	15	17.5	14.5	17.5	16.5	18.5	18.5	15	15.5	16	16	18.5	13.5	15.5	16.5	8.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates
	Oct 27/28	Nov 3/4	Nov 7/8^
	%	%	%
Right direction	56	50	55.5
Wrong direction	30	30.5	31
Can’t say	14	19.5	13.5
Total	100	100	100

^ Phone Poll

VOTING STRENGTH

	Interviewing Dates
	May 26/27	June 2/3	June 9/10 & 16/17	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1	July 7/8 & 14/15	July 21/22 & 28/29	Aug 4/5 & 11/12	Aug 18/19 & 25/26	Sep 1/2	Sep 8/9	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 6/7	Oct 13/14	Oct 17/18^	Oct 20/21	Oct 24/25^
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Strong L-NP voters	32	32	32.5	31	36	34	31.5	34.5	28.5	32	34.5	32.5	30	33	34.5	30	35	35.5
Soft L-NP voters	5.5	6	4.5	5	4.5	6.5	5	6.5	6	4	5	3.5	5.5	5	5	9.5	4.5	5.5
Total L-NP voters	37.5	38	37	36	40.5	40.5	36.5	41	34.5	36	39.5	36	35.5	38	39.5	39.5	39.5	41
Soft ALP voters	17.5	19	19	20.5	19.5	17	19	17	18.5	17	19	20	21.5	21.5	22.5	17.5	19	23
Strong ALP voters	31.5	32	29	30	28	30	30.5	29	30.5	34	30.5	34	32	28	27	27.5	28	21
Total ALP voters	49	51	48	50.5	47.5	47	49.5	46	49	51	49.5	54	53.5	49.5	49.5	45	47	44
Greens voters	6	5.5	6.5	7	5.5	6.5	7	6.5	9	6	6	5.5	5.5	6	7	9	8	10.5
Ind./Other voters	7.5	5.5	8.5	7	6.5	6	7	6.5	7.5	7	5	4.5	5.5	6.5	4	6.5	5.5	4.5
Total	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*	100*
Did not name a party	3	5	4.5	4.5	5	4	4.5	5	5.5	4	5	4.5	4.5	5.5	4	4.5	4	2

	Interviewing Dates
	Oct 27/28	Nov  3/4	Nov 7/8^
	%	%
Strong L-NP voters	33.5	30	28.5
Soft L-NP voters	5.5	4	10.5
Total L-NP voters	39	34	39
Soft ALP voters	21.5	23	19
Strong ALP voters	27.5	31.5	25.5
Total ALP voters	49	54.5	44.5
Greens voters	7.5	6	10.5
Ind./Other voters	4.5	5.5	6
Total	100*	100*	100*
Did not name a party	5	4.5	3.5

* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party

^ Phone Poll

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	55	31.5	13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	59	29	12
May 14/15, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	61	27	12
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	60	27	13
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	61.5	26	12.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	61.5	24.5	14
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	61	24.5	14.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005	64	23.5	12.5
September 10/11, 2005	60.5	27	12.5
September 17/18, 2005	66	21.5	12.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	65	24	11
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	65	23.5	11.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	60	26.5	13.5
November 5/6, 2005	55	32.5	12.5
November 12/13, 2005	61	27.5	11.5
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	50	36.5	13.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	54.5	33	12.5
December 17/18, 2005	58	28	14
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	59	27	14
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	65	25	10
February 4/5, 2006	62	27	11
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	60	27	13
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	66	23	11
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006	69	20.5	10.5
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	64.5	25	10.5
April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006	62	26.5	11.5
April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	63.5	24.5	12
May 6/7, 2006	60.5	28	11.5
May 13/14, 2006	70	20	10
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006	64.5	22	13.5
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006	61.5	26.5	12
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006	58.5	28.5	13
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006	56.5	30	13.5
July 15/16, 2006	61	28	11
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	59.5	29	11.5
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006	58.5	28	13.5
August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006	59.5	28.5	12
September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006	58	30	12
September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006	59.5	27.5	13
September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006	58.5	28	13.5
October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006	58.5	28.5	13
October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006	59.5	28.5	12
November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	58	29.5	12.5
November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006	58	28.5	13.5
December 9/10, 2006	46	39.5	14.5
December 16/17, 2006	45.5	41	13.5
January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007	48	38.5	13.5
January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007	47.5	38.5	14
February 3/4, 2007	43	44	13
February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007	40	45.5	14.5
February 23/24, 2007	31.5	52.5	16
March 3/4, 2007	39.5	47.5	13
March 10/11, 2007	36	50	14
March 17/18, 2007	30.5	54.5	15
March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007	31	56.5	12.5
April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007	31.5	55	13.5
April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007	29.5	55.5	15
May 5/6, 2007	33	55	12
May 12/13, 2007	38	49	13
May 19/20, 2007	32	55	13
May 26/27, 2007	33	55	12
June 2/3, 2007	28.5	59	12.5
June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007	35.5	50	14.5
June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007	37	50	13
July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007	34.5	52	13.5
July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007	28	58	14
August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007	28	60	12
August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007	31.5	55	13.5
September 1/2 , 2007	26.5	60.5	13
September 8/9, 2007	24.5	66	9.5
September 15/16, 2007	26	63	11
September 22/23, 2007	30.5	56.5	13
September 29/30, 2007	27	61	12
October 6/7, 2007	27.5	61	11.5
October 13/14, 2007	25.5	62	12.5
October 17/18, 2007 (Phone Poll)	31.5	55.5	13
October 20/21, 2007	33	54	13
October 24/25, 2007 (Phone Poll)	27	63.5	9.5
October 27/28, 2007	29	59	12
November 3/4, 2007	28.5	58.5	13
November 7/8, 2007 (Phone Poll)	28.5	58.5	13

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem.#	The Greens	Family First#	One Nation#	Ind./ Others
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	40.5 (1.5)	43	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	42 (2)	40	2	8.5	1.5	1	5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	42(2.5)	42.5	1.5	8	1.5	1	3.5
May 14/15, 2005	43(1.5)	41	1.5	8	2	0.5	4
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	45 (2)	39	1.5	7.5	1.5	0.5	5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	43.5 (1.5)	39.5	1.5	7.5	2	1.5	4.5
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	42 (2.5)	39.5	2	9	2.5	1	4
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	42.5 (2)	40.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1	4.5
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	41.5 (2.5)	38.5	2.5	8	1.5	2	6
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	41.5 (4)	42	2	7.5	2	1	4
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	39 (2.5)	41.5	2	8	3	1.5	5
August 27/28 & September 3/4	44 (3.5)	37	1.5	8.5	3	1	5
September 10/11, 2005	39.5 (3)	41.5	1.5	7	3	0.5	7
September 17/18, 2005	44 (2.5)	34.5	2.5	10	2	1.5	5.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	42 (3.5)	38.5	2.5	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	39.5 (2.5)	41.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	39 (3.5)	41	2.5	9.5	2	1	5
November 5/6, 2005	38.5 (3)	43	1.5	9.5	2	1	4.5
November 12/13, 2005	43.5 (3)	38	1.5	9	2	-	6
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	35.5 (2.5)	45.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	38.5 (2.5)	42	2	10	2.5	1	4
December 17/18, 2005	39.5 (4)	39.5	1.5	10.5	3	1.5	4.5
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	39 (3.5)	43	2	8	3	1	4
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	42 (2.5)	38	2	8.5	2.5	1	6
February 4/5, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	42	1.5	8	2	1	5
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	40 (3)	40.5	2.5	8	2	1	6
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	43 (3.5)	39.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	44 (3.5)	38.5	1.5	8.5	2.5	1	4
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	39 (2)	43.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006	38.5 (2)	42	1.5	9.5	2.5	0.5	5.5
April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006	40 (3)	39	2.5	8.5	2.5	1	6.5
May 6/7, 2006	39 (2)	42	2.5	9.5	1.5	1	4.5
May 13/14, 2006	42 (2.5)	40.5	2.5	7	1.5	0.5	6
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006	42 (3.5)	41	1.5	7.5	3	1	4
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006	39.5 (2.5)	42	2	8	2.5	1.5	4.5
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006	42 (3)	40.5	1.5	8.5	1.5	0.5	5.5
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006	39 (3)	42.5	2.5	8.5	2.5	1	4
July 15/16, 2006	45 (2.5)	36.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1.5	5.5
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	40 (2.5)	42	2	8	2.5	1	4.5
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	41.5	2	8.5	3	1	3.5
August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006	39 (2)	42.5	2.5	8	2.5	0.5	5
September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006	38 (2.5)	43	2.5	9	2	0.5	5
September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006	41.5 (3)	41.5	2.5	8	1	1	4.5
September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006	39 (3)	42	2	9.5	2	1	4.5
October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	41.5	2	8.5	2	0.5	5
October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006	41.5 (3.5)	40.5	1.5	9	2	1	4.5
November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	40.5 (2.5)	40.5	2.5	10	2	1	3.5
November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006	41.5 (3)	41	1.5	9	1.5	1	4.5
December 9/10, 2006	34.5 (3)	50	1.5	7	2.5	1	3.5
December 16/17, 2006	35.5 (3.5)	49	2.5	7	2	1	3
January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007	36.5 (3)	47	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007	39 (2.5)	43.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1.5	4.5
February 3/4, 2007	37 (2.5)	47	2	8	1.5	0.5	4
February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007	38 (2.5)	48	1.5	7	1.5	0.5	3.5
February 24/25, 2007	34 (3.5)	52.5	0.5	7.5	1.5	1	3
March 3/4, 2007	33 (3.5)	51.5	2	7	1.5	1	4
March 10/11, 2007	34 (3)	51.5	1.5	7.5	2	1	2.5
March 17/18, 2007	36 (2.5)	48.5	1	8	2.5	1	3
March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007	34.5 (3)	49.5	1.5	9	1.5	0.5	3.5
April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007	35.5 (3.5)	50	1	7.5	1.5	0.5	4
April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007	34.5 (3.5)	52.5	1.5	6.5	1.5	0.5	3
May 5/6, 2007	35.5 (2)	51.5	1	7	1.5	0.5	3
May 12/13, 2007	36 (2)	51	1	8	1.5	0.5	2
May 19/20, 2007	35.5 (2)	51	1	8	1.5	1	2
May 26/27, 2007	37.5 (2)	49	1	6	2	1.5	3
June 2/3, 2007	38 (2.5)	51	0.5	5.5	1.5	1	2.5
June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007	37 (2.5)	48	1.5	6.5	2	1	4
June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007	36 (2.5)	50.5	0.5	7	1.5	1	3.5
July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007	40.5 (2.5)	47.5	1.5	5.5	2	^	3
July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007	40.5 (2.5)	47	1	6.5	1.5	0.5	3
August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007	36.5 (3)	49.5	1.5	7	2	1	2.5
August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007	41 (2.5)	46	1	6.5	1.5	1	3
September 1/2, 2007	34.5(1.5)	49	2	9	2	0.5	3
September 8/9, 2007	36 (2)	51	1	6	2	0.5	3.5
September 15/16, 2007	39.5 (3)	49.5	0.5	6	1.5	1	2
September 22/23, 2007	36 (2.5)	54	0.5	5.5	1	0.5	2.5
September 29/30, 2007	35.5 (2)	53.5	1.5	5.5	1.5	0.5	2
October 6/7, 2007	38 (2.5)	49.5	1	6	2	0.5	3
October 13/14, 2007	39.5 (3)	49.5	1	7	0.5	0.5	2
October 17/18, 2007 (Phone Poll)	39.5 (2.5)	45	0.5	9	1.5	1	3.5
October 20/21, 2007	39.5 (2.5)	47	1	8	2	1	1.5
October 24/25, 2007 (Phone Poll)	41 (3)	44	1.5	10.5	1	0.5	1.5
October 27/28, 2007	39 (2.5)	49	1	7.5	1	0.5	2
November 3/4, 2007	34 (2.5)	54.5	0.5	6	2	0.5	2.5
November 7/8, 2007 (Phone Poll)	39 (3)	44.5	2	10.5	1.5	1	1.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution ^ Less than 0.5% *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	L-NP	ALP
	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
Election October 9, 2004	52.7	47.3
MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2004 election
	%	%	%	%
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	50.5	49.5	50.5	49.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	50	50	50.5	49.5
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	52.5	47.5	53	47
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	51	49	52.5	47.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	53.5	46.5	53	47
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	51.5	48.5	51.5	48.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	51.5	48.5	52	48
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	52	48	52	48
Mar 5/6, 2005	47.5	52.5	48	52
Mar 12/13, 2005	51.5	48.5	52	48
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	50.5	49.5	50.5	49.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	46	54	47	53
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	48	52	49	51
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	47.5	52.5	48	52
May 14/15, 2005	47.5	52.5	49.5	50.5
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	51	49	51.5	48.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	49.5	50.5	50	50
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	48	52	49.5	50.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	48.5	51.5	49	51
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	48.5	51.5	49.5	50.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	47	53	48	52
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	46.5	53.5	46.5	53.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005	51	49	51.5	48.5
September 10/11, 2005	46.5	53.5	47	53
September 17/18, 2005	52	48	52.5	47.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	48.5	51.5	49.5	50.5
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	46.5	53.5	47	53
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45.5	54.5	47	53
November 5/6, 2005	43.5	56.5	46	54
November 12/13, 2005	50	50	51	49
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	41.5	58.5	43	57
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	45	55	46	54
December 17/18, 2005	48	52	48	52
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	45	55	46	54
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	51	49	50	50
February 4/5, 2006	45.5	54.5	47.5	52.5