ALP Lead By 12% In Wake Of Interest Rate Rise - ALP 56%, L-NP 44%
| Finding No. 4237 -
Latest Federal Morgan Poll Results:
November 09, 2007 |
The first Morgan Poll since this week’s interest rate rise (interviewing conducted by telephone November 7/8) finds the ALP has a 12% lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 56% (up 1.5% from the last telephone Morgan Poll on October 24/25), L-NP 44% (down 1.5%).
However, the face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend (November 3/4) showed the ALP with a record lead of 24% (62% cf. 38%). Although this was before the increase in interest rates, the latest CPI figure had been released, foreshadowing a likely interest rate rise. It was also after Tony Abbott made derogatory remarks about asbestos sufferer Bernie Banton, as well as turning up late for his debate with Nicola Roxon, in which he was caught swearing on camera.
The ALP would win in a landslide if the Federal election were to be held now, the latest Morgan Polls finds.
Telephone Morgan Poll
The Coalition’s primary vote is 39% (down 2% from the last telephone Morgan Poll), while Labor’s primary vote is 44.5% (up 0.5%).
Among the minor parties: Greens 10.5% (unchanged); Democrats 2% (up 0.5%); Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%); One Nation 1% (up 0.5%); and Independent/Other candidates 1.5% (unchanged).
A majority of electors (58.5%, down 5%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election, while (28.5%, up 1.5%) think the L-NP will win and 13% (up 3.5%) can’t say.
Now, 55.5% (down 8%) think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while 31% (up 3%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” — 13.5% (up 5%) are undecided.
Currently, 19% (down 4%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today. The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.
Face-to-face Morgan Poll
On the weekend prior to the interest rate rise, primary support for the Coalition was 34% (down 5% from the previous face-to-face Morgan Poll), while support for the ALP was 54.5% (up 5.5%).
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote was ALP 62% (up 4.5%), L-NP 38% (down 4.5%).
Support for The Greens was 6% (down 1.5%), Family First 2% (up 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2.5% (up 0.5%).
A majority of electors (58.5%, down 0.5%) thought the ALP would win the next Federal election, while (28.5%, down 0.5%) thought the L-NP would win and 13% (up 1%) couldn’t say.
Fifty per cent (down 6%) thought Australia was heading in the “right direction”, while 30.5% (up 0.5%) thought Australia was heading in the “wrong direction” — 19.5% (up a significant 5.5%) were undecided.
Twenty-three per cent (up 1.5%) of all electors said Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet said they would vote Labor if an election were held today.
Gary Morgan says:
“The 12 point lead in the latest telephone Morgan Poll — conducted after the RBA announced an interest rate rise — represents an increase in the ALP lead of 3% compared to the previous telephone poll. However, it is still less than the 24% lead recorded in the last face-to-face Morgan Poll — conducted before the interest rate increase was officially announced, but after Tony Abbott’s gaffes and the increase in the latest CPI figures.
“The issue of interest rates has not yet been fully played out in the political arena. The real question is how the electorate will respond to the latest interest rate increase — will they blame the Government and consider ‘record interest rates’ promises by Mr Howard, will they blame the global financial economy and look to the L-NP Government, as strong economic managers, to lead the country in the coming turbulent economic times?
“This renewed focus on finance and the economy will also reinstate the IR debate to the front of electors’ minds.
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”
This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of November 3/4, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 990 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.
The latest Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the nights of November 7/8, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 552 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (up 1.5%) did not name a party.
DURING THE PERIOD:
- The Reserve Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.75%;
- Federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd was forced to clarify his position on climate change when Opposition environment spokesman Peter Garrett said a Labor government would be willing commit to a new emissions target without having developing countries onboard;
- Treasurer Peter Costello and his Labor counterpart Wayne Swan took part in a debate at the National Press Club;
- Family First candidate Andrew Quah was expelled from the party after compromising photographs appeared on the Internet;
- Federal Health Minister Tony Abbot was forced to apologise after arriving half an hour late for a debate with his Labor counterpart Nicola Roxon. He was then caught on camera swearing at her; and
- Efficient won the Melbourne Cup.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates |
| |
May
26/27 |
June
2/3 |
June 9/10
& 16/17 |
June 23/24 &
June 30/July 1 |
July 7/8
& 14/15 |
July 21/22
& 28/29 |
Aug 4/5
& 11/12 |
Aug 18/19
& 25/26 |
Sep
1/2 |
Sep
8/9 |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
22/23 |
Sep
29/30 |
Oct
6/7 |
Oct
13/14 |
Oct
17/18^ |
Oct
20/21 |
Oct
24/25^ |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
50.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
51.5 |
55.5 |
49 |
49 |
48.5 |
47 |
48 |
52.5 |
52 |
49.5 |
53 |
57.5 |
53 |
53.5 |
63.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
32.5 |
33.5 |
31 |
30 |
33.5 |
34.5 |
33 |
34.5 |
37 |
32 |
32 |
34.5 |
28.5 |
29 |
31.5 |
30 |
28 |
|
Can’t say |
16.5 |
19 |
15 |
17.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
16.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
16 |
16 |
18.5 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
8.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates |
| |
Oct
27/28 |
Nov
3/4 |
Nov
7/8^ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
56 |
50 |
55.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
30 |
30.5 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
14 |
19.5 |
13.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
^ Phone Poll
VOTING STRENGTH
| |
Interviewing Dates |
| |
May
26/27 |
June
2/3 |
June 9/10
& 16/17 |
June 23/24 &
June 30/July 1 |
July 7/8
& 14/15 |
July 21/22
& 28/29 |
Aug 4/5
& 11/12 |
Aug 18/19
& 25/26 |
Sep
1/2 |
Sep
8/9 |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
22/23 |
Sep
29/30 |
Oct
6/7 |
Oct 13/14 |
Oct 17/18^ |
Oct 20/21 |
Oct
24/25^ |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Strong L-NP voters |
32 |
32 |
32.5 |
31 |
36 |
34 |
31.5 |
34.5 |
28.5 |
32 |
34.5 |
32.5 |
30 |
33 |
34.5 |
30 |
35 |
35.5 |
|
Soft L-NP voters |
5.5 |
6 |
4.5 |
5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
6 |
4 |
5 |
3.5 |
5.5 |
5 |
5 |
9.5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
|
Total L-NP voters |
37.5 |
38 |
37 |
36 |
40.5 |
40.5 |
36.5 |
41 |
34.5 |
36 |
39.5 |
36 |
35.5 |
38 |
39.5 |
39.5 |
39.5 |
41 |
|
Soft ALP voters |
17.5 |
19 |
19 |
20.5 |
19.5 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
18.5 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
22.5 |
17.5 |
19 |
23 |
|
Strong ALP voters |
31.5 |
32 |
29 |
30 |
28 |
30 |
30.5 |
29 |
30.5 |
34 |
30.5 |
34 |
32 |
28 |
27 |
27.5 |
28 |
21 |
|
Total ALP voters |
49 |
51 |
48 |
50.5 |
47.5 |
47 |
49.5 |
46 |
49 |
51 |
49.5 |
54 |
53.5 |
49.5 |
49.5 |
45 |
47 |
44 |
|
Greens voters |
6 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
7 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
7 |
6.5 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
10.5 |
|
Ind./Other voters |
7.5 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
7 |
6.5 |
6 |
7 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
7 |
5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
4 |
6.5 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
|
Total |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
|
Did not name a party |
3 |
5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
5 |
4 |
4.5 |
5 |
5.5 |
4 |
5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
4 |
4.5 |
4 |
2 |
| |
Interviewing Dates |
| |
Oct
27/28 |
Nov
3/4 |
Nov
7/8^ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strong L-NP voters |
33.5 |
30 |
28.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soft L-NP voters |
5.5 |
4 |
10.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total L-NP voters |
39 |
34 |
39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soft ALP voters |
21.5 |
23 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strong ALP voters |
27.5 |
31.5 |
25.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total ALP voters |
49 |
54.5 |
44.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Greens voters |
7.5 |
6 |
10.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ind./Other voters |
4.5 |
5.5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100* |
100* |
100* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Did not name a party |
5 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party
^ Phone Poll
Strong L-NP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and
- would vote L-NP if an election were held today.
Soft L-NP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and
- would vote L-NP if an election were held today.
Soft ALP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and
- would vote Labor if an election were held today.
Strong ALP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and
- would vote Labor if an election were held today.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004 |
56 |
28 |
16 |
|
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
55.5 |
30 |
14.5 |
|
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004 |
63.5 |
23 |
13.5 |
|
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
|
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
69.5 |
19.5 |
11 |
|
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
|
March 5/6, 2005 |
57 |
31 |
12 |
|
March 12/13, 2005 |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
|
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
|
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
55 |
31.5 |
13.5 |
|
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
|
May 14/15, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
|
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
|
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
61 |
27 |
12 |
|
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
|
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
|
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
61.5 |
26 |
12.5 |
|
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
61.5 |
24.5 |
14 |
|
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
61 |
24.5 |
14.5 |
|
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
|
September 10/11, 2005 |
60.5 |
27 |
12.5 |
|
September 17/18, 2005 |
66 |
21.5 |
12.5 |
|
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
65 |
24 |
11 |
|
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
|
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
60 |
26.5 |
13.5 |
|
November 5/6, 2005 |
55 |
32.5 |
12.5 |
|
November 12/13, 2005 |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
|
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50 |
36.5 |
13.5 |
|
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
54.5 |
33 |
12.5 |
|
December 17/18, 2005 |
58 |
28 |
14 |
|
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
59 |
27 |
14 |
|
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
65 |
25 |
10 |
|
February 4/5, 2006 |
62 |
27 |
11 |
|
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
|
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
66 |
23 |
11 |
|
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
69 |
20.5 |
10.5 |
|
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
64.5 |
25 |
10.5 |
|
April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006 |
62 |
26.5 |
11.5 |
|
April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
63.5 |
24.5 |
12 |
|
May 6/7, 2006 |
60.5 |
28 |
11.5 |
|
May 13/14, 2006 |
70 |
20 |
10 |
|
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
64.5 |
22 |
13.5 |
|
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
61.5 |
26.5 |
12 |
|
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
|
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
56.5 |
30 |
13.5 |
|
July 15/16, 2006 |
61 |
28 |
11 |
|
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
59.5 |
29 |
11.5 |
|
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
|
August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
|
September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
58 |
30 |
12 |
|
September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
59.5 |
27.5 |
13 |
|
September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
|
October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
|
October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
|
November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
58 |
29.5 |
12.5 |
|
November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
58 |
28.5 |
13.5 |
|
December 9/10, 2006 |
46 |
39.5 |
14.5 |
|
December 16/17, 2006 |
45.5 |
41 |
13.5 |
|
January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007 |
48 |
38.5 |
13.5 |
|
January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007 |
47.5 |
38.5 |
14 |
| February 3/4, 2007 |
43 |
44 |
13 |
| February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 |
40 |
45.5 |
14.5 |
| February 23/24, 2007 |
31.5 |
52.5 |
16 |
| March 3/4, 2007 |
39.5 |
47.5 |
13 |
| March 10/11, 2007 |
36 |
50 |
14 |
| March 17/18, 2007 |
30.5 |
54.5 |
15 |
| March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 |
31 |
56.5 |
12.5 |
| April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
31.5 |
55 |
13.5 |
| April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
29.5 |
55.5 |
15 |
| May 5/6, 2007 |
33 |
55 |
12 |
| May 12/13, 2007 |
38 |
49 |
13 |
| May 19/20, 2007 |
32 |
55 |
13 |
| May 26/27, 2007 |
33 |
55 |
12 |
| June 2/3, 2007 |
28.5 |
59 |
12.5 |
| June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 |
35.5 |
50 |
14.5 |
| June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 |
37 |
50 |
13 |
| July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
34.5 |
52 |
13.5 |
| July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
28 |
58 |
14 |
| August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 |
28 |
60 |
12 |
| August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 |
31.5 |
55 |
13.5 |
| September 1/2 , 2007 |
26.5 |
60.5 |
13 |
| September 8/9, 2007 |
24.5 |
66 |
9.5 |
| September 15/16, 2007 |
26 |
63 |
11 |
| September 22/23, 2007 |
30.5 |
56.5 |
13 |
|
September 29/30, 2007 |
27 |
61 |
12 |
| October 6/7, 2007 |
27.5 |
61 |
11.5 |
| October 13/14, 2007 |
25.5 |
62 |
12.5 |
| October 17/18, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
31.5 |
55.5 |
13 |
| October 20/21, 2007 |
33 |
54 |
13 |
| October 24/25, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
27 |
63.5 |
9.5 |
| October 27/28, 2007 |
29 |
59 |
12 |
| November 3/4, 2007 |
28.5 |
58.5 |
13 |
| November 7/8, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
28.5 |
58.5 |
13 |
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem.# |
The
Greens |
Family
First# |
One
Nation# |
Ind./
Others |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
* |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
* |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
* |
4.3 |
5.1 |
| Election October 9, 2004 |
46.4 (5.9) |
37.6 |
1.2 |
7.2 |
2 |
1.2 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
44.5 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
44 (3) |
39 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
46.5 (2.5) |
36 |
1.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
45.5 (3) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
47 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
37.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
46 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
44.5 (2.5) |
37 |
1 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
39 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
40.5 (1.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
42 (2) |
40 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
42(2.5) |
42.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
43(1.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
0.5 |
4 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
45 (2) |
39 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
43.5 (1.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
42.5 (2) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
41.5 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
6 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
41.5 (4) |
42 |
2 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
39 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1.5 |
5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4 |
44 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
39.5 (3) |
41.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
3 |
0.5 |
7 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
34.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
42 (3.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
39.5 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
39 (3.5) |
41 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
38.5 (3) |
43 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
43.5 (3) |
38 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
- |
6 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
35.5 (2.5) |
45.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
38.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
39.5 (4) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
39 (3.5) |
43 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
42 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40 (3) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
43 (3.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
44 (3.5) |
38.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
39 (2) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
38.5 (2) |
42 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (3) |
39 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
42 (3.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
39.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (3) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
45 (2.5) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
3.5 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
38 (2.5) |
43 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
4.5 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42 |
2 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
41.5 (3.5) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40.5 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41 |
1.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| December 9/10, 2006 |
34.5 (3) |
50 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| December 16/17, 2006 |
35.5 (3.5) |
49 |
2.5 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
| January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007 |
36.5 (3) |
47 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007 |
39 (2.5) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| February 3/4, 2007 |
37 (2.5) |
47 |
2 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
| February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 |
38 (2.5) |
48 |
1.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| February 24/25, 2007 |
34 (3.5) |
52.5 |
0.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
3 |
| March 3/4, 2007 |
33 (3.5) |
51.5 |
2 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 10/11, 2007 |
34 (3) |
51.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| March 17/18, 2007 |
36 (2.5) |
48.5 |
1 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 |
34.5 (3) |
49.5 |
1.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
35.5 (3.5) |
50 |
1 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
| April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
34.5 (3.5) |
52.5 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| May 5/6, 2007 |
35.5 (2) |
51.5 |
1 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| May 12/13, 2007 |
36 (2) |
51 |
1 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
| May 19/20, 2007 |
35.5 (2) |
51 |
1 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
| May 26/27, 2007 |
37.5 (2) |
49 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
1.5 |
3 |
| June 2/3, 2007 |
38 (2.5) |
51 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
| June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 |
37 (2.5) |
48 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 |
36 (2.5) |
50.5 |
0.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
40.5 (2.5) |
47.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
2 |
^ |
3 |
| July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
40.5 (2.5) |
47 |
1 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 |
36.5 (3) |
49.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 |
41 (2.5) |
46 |
1 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
3 |
|
September 1/2, 2007 |
34.5(1.5) |
49 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
0.5 |
3 |
|
September 8/9, 2007 |
36 (2) |
51 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
|
September 15/16, 2007 |
39.5 (3) |
49.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
|
September 22/23, 2007 |
36 (2.5) |
54 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
|
September 29/30, 2007 |
35.5 (2) |
53.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
|
October 6/7, 2007 |
38 (2.5) |
49.5 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
0.5 |
3 |
|
October 13/14, 2007 |
39.5 (3) |
49.5 |
1 |
7 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
|
October 17/18, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
39.5 (2.5) |
45 |
0.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
October 20/21, 2007 |
39.5 (2.5) |
47 |
1 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
October 24/25, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
41 (3) |
44 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
October 27/28, 2007 |
39 (2.5) |
49 |
1 |
7.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
2 |
|
November 3/4, 2007 |
34 (2.5) |
54.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
2 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
|
November 7/8, 2007 (Phone Poll) |
39 (3) |
44.5 |
2 |
10.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
^ Less than 0.5%
*The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2004 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
51 |
49 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49 |
51 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
50 |
50 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
47 |
53 |
48 |
52 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46 |
54 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
50 |
50 |
51 |
49 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
43 |
57 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
50 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
|
