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A majority of Australian voters (52%) believe there should be a Federal Government inquiry to review the Gunns’ Pulp Mill process. Only 24% of Australian electors approve of the new Gunns’ Pulp Mill near Launceston, 46% do not approve and 30% can’t say.  These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights (Wednesday and Thursday).

In total, 70% of Australian electors are aware that the Tasmanian Government recently approved a new Gunn’s pulp mill to be constructed in the Tamar River Valley north of Launceston.

Of L-NP voters, 71% are aware, 41% approve and 40% believe there should be a Federal Government commission of inquiry to review the Gunns’ Pulp Mill approval process. Of ALP voters 67% are aware, only 14% approve and 58% believe there should be an inquiry.  Of Greens’ voters 72% are aware of the Gunns’ Pulp Mill approval, only 3% approve and 77% believe the Federal Government should commission an inquiry.

Gary Morgan says:

“The Federal Government should listen to the electorate who clearly want an inquiry to review the Tasmanian Government’s approval process before it’s built.  The Coalition would be wise to announce the inquiry before the Federal election.”

This special telephone Roy Morgan survey was conducted over the last two nights (November 7/8, 2007), with an Australia-wide cross-section of 552 electors.

Awareness of proposed Pulp Mill

Respondents were asked: “Recently the Tasmanian Government approved a new Gunns’ Pulp Mill near Launceston.  Before today were you aware of this, or not?”

	Australian Electors	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Nov 7/8, 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, aware	70	77	62	40	51	74	79	87
No, not aware	30	22	38	60	47	25	21	13
Can’t say	^	1	^	-	2	1	-	-
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

^ Less than 0.5%

	Australian Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Nov 7/8, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Ind/Other#	Can’t say/Refused#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, aware	70	71	67	72	78	68
No, not aware	30	29	32	28	22	32
Can’t say	^	-	1	-	-	-
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

^ Less than 0.5%

Approval of proposed Pulp Mill

Respondents were the asked: “Do you approve of the new Gunns’ Pulp Mill near Launceston or not?”

	Australian Electors	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Nov 7/8, 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, approve	24	29	20	16	30	18	28	29
No, do not approve	46	46	46	38	31	58	46	46
Can’t say	30	25	34	46	39	24	26	25
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Australian Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Nov 7/8, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Ind/Other#	Can’t say/Refused#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, approve	24	41	14	3	28	19
No, do not approve	46	32	53	77	40	41
Can’t say	30	27	33	20	32	40
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Government Inquiry?

Respondents were then told: “Some people are concerned that the approval process was ‘fast tracked’ by the Tasmanian Government and many issues were not addressed.  Because of this they believe there should now be a Federal Government inquiry into the Tasmanian approval process.” 

Finally, respondents were asked: “Do you think there should be a Federal Government commission of inquiry to review the Gunns’ Pulp Mill approval process, or not?”

	Australian Electors	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Nov 7/8, 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, should be an inquiry	52	51	53	58	56	55	50	43
No, should not be an inquiry	31	37	26	14	28	28	37	42
Can’t say	17	12	21	28	16	17	13	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Australian Electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Nov 7/8, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Ind/Other#	Can’t say/Refused
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, should be an inquiry	52	40	58	77	50	37
No, should not be an inquiry	31	46	24	14	31	15
Can’t say	17	14	18	9	19	48
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office + 61 3 9224 5213          Mobile + 61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:          Office + 61 3 9224 5215          Mobile + 61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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