Coalition Senate Support Up 2% In October
| Finding No. 4241 -
Latest Morgan Senate Poll results:
November 13, 2007 |
In October, support for the Coalition in the Senate was 35.5% (up 2% from September). During the same period, support for the ALP was 44.5% (down 2%), the latest Morgan Senate Poll finds.
Nationally, support for the Greens is 9% (down 0.5%). Among the other minor parties support for the Australian Democrats is 3.5% (up 1%), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged), and support for Other Parties and Independent Candidates is 4.5% (down 0.5%).
Support for Pauline Hanson in Queensland has gone backwards, with Ms. Hanson polling 5.5% of the Queensland vote during October, down 2% from September.
Results by State:
• In New South Wales: ALP 47.5% (down 2.5% since September), L-NP 34.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 8.5% (down 0.5%), Democrats 2.5% (unchanged), CDP 2% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%), Other 2.5% (unchanged). If a half-Senate election were to be held now, this would most likely result in three NSW ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator or another L-NP Senator);
• In Victoria: ALP 45% (down 3%), L-NP 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10.5% (unchanged), Democrats 3.5% (up 1.5%), Family First 2.5% (up 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), Other 2.5% (down 1%). This would most likely result in three Victorian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator or another L-NP Senator);
• In Queensland: ALP 40% (down 0.5%), Liberal 32.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 6.5% (up 0.5%), Pauline Hanson 5.5% (down 2%), Democrats 5.5% (up 1%), Nationals 4.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%), Other 2.5% (down 1%). This would most likely result in three Queensland ALP Senators, two Liberal Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably another Liberal Senator, or a Senator from the National Party, Greens, or Democrats);
• In South Australia: ALP 45.5% (down 0.5%), L-NP 32.5% (down 1%), Greens 6% (down 1%), Democrats 4% (up 1%), Family First 4% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1.5% (up 0.5%), Other 6.5% (up 1.5%). This would most likely result in three South Australian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably another Liberal Senator, or a Senator from the Greens, or independent Nick Xenophon);
• In Western Australia: Liberal 42% (unchanged), ALP 39% (up 2%), Greens 10.5% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Nationals 1.5% (unchanged), Democrats 1.5% (down 1.5%), CDP 1% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%), Other 2% (down 1%). This would most likely result in three Western Australian Liberal Senators, two ALP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator or another ALP Senator);
• In Tasmania: ALP 45.5% (up 0.5%), Liberal 30.5% (up 0.5%), Greens 20.5% (up 3%), Family First 1% (down 1.5%), Other 2.5% (down 2%). This would most likely result in three Tasmanian ALP Senators, two Liberal Senators, and one Greens Senator; and
• In ACT: ALP 48% (unchanged), L-NP 24.5% (down 3%), Greens 20% (up 4.5%), Democrats 5% (unchanged), Other 2.5% (down 1.5%). This would most likely result in one ACT ALP Senator, and either an L-NP or Greens Senator.
Results for Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania are for September/October.
Results for ACT are for June — October.
Note: For Senators to be elected, they must obtain 7.7% or more of the vote (the quota) in a State when all Senators (12 per State) are to be elected. At an election for half the Senate the quota is 14.3% and six Senators are elected from each State.
See tables in release for full analysis of state, monthly and demographic breakdown.
These are the main findings of the latest Morgan Senate Poll, conducted face-to-face in all electorates throughout Australia with:
• 1,307 electors in New South Wales during October 2007 — of all NSW electors surveyed, 7.7% were undecided on Senate voting intention;
• 759 electors in Victoria during October 2007 — of all Victorian electors surveyed, 8.9% were undecided on Senate voting intention;
• 823 electors in Queensland during October 2007 — of all Queensland electors surveyed, 11% were undecided on Senate voting intention;
• 618 electors in South Australia during September and October 2007 — of all SA electors surveyed, 10.1% were undecided on Senate voting intention;
• 540 electors in Western Australia during September and October 2007 — of all WA electors surveyed, 10.5% were undecided on Senate voting intention;
• 291 electors in Tasmania during September and October 2007 — of all Tasmanian electors surveyed, 11% were undecided on Senate voting intention; and
• 339 electors in the ACT during June-October 2007 — of all ACT electors surveyed, 8.1% were undecided on Senate voting intention.
Respondents were asked: “If a Federal election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Senate Voting Intention
Respondents were asked: “If a Federal election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”
|
Total Australia: |
L-NP |
ALP |
Greens |
Democrats |
Family First |
One Nation |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
43 |
43.5 |
2.9 |
5.3 |
n/a |
n/a |
5.3 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
44 |
36.2 |
1.7 |
10.8 |
n/a |
n/a |
7.3 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
36.5 |
37.3 |
2.2 |
8.5 |
n/a |
9.0 |
6.5 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
42 |
34.1 |
4.9 |
7.2 |
n/a |
5.6 |
6.2 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
44.7 |
35 |
7.7 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
7 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
36 |
39 |
10.5 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
36.5 |
40 |
10.5 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
36 |
42 |
10 |
4.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
32.5 |
45.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
5.5 |
|
May & June, 2007 |
33.5 |
45.5 |
9.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
July & August, 2007 |
37 |
43 |
8.5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
September 2007 |
33.5 |
46.5 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
October 2007 |
35.5 |
44.5 |
9 |
3.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| |
All Electors |
Area |
Gender |
Age |
|
|
|
City |
Country |
Men |
Women |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-49 |
50+ |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Liberal |
33 |
34 |
31 |
33 |
33 |
29.5 |
28 |
30.5 |
37.5 |
|
National |
2.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Total L-NP |
35.5 |
35 |
36.5 |
35.5 |
36 |
31 |
29 |
33 |
41 |
|
ALP |
44.5 |
45 |
43 |
45.5 |
43 |
49 |
47 |
45 |
41.5 |
|
Greens |
9 |
9.5 |
8 |
8.5 |
9.5 |
11 |
11.5 |
10 |
6.5 |
|
Democrats |
3.5 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
5 |
2.5 |
|
Family First |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2.5 |
3 |
5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
One Nation |
1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
Other |
4.5 |
4 |
6 |
3.5 |
5 |
2 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Senate Vote by State
|
New South Wales: |
L-NP |
ALP |
Greens |
Democrats |
Family First |
One Nation |
CDP |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
38.9 |
46.9 |
3.4 |
4.9 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
5.9 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
41.4 |
37.2 |
2.7 |
9.6 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
9.1 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
36.6 |
38.7 |
2.2 |
7.4 |
n/a |
9.6 |
^ |
5.5 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
41.8 |
33.5 |
4.4 |
6.2 |
n/a |
5.6 |
^ |
8.5 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
44.1 |
36.4 |
7.3 |
2.2 |
0.6 |
1.9 |
^ |
7.5 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
35.5 |
40.5 |
8.5 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
36.5 |
40.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
34 |
43 |
10.5 |
4 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
31 |
46.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
May & June, 2007 |
32.5 |
48.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3.5 |
|
July & August, 2007 |
37.5 |
45.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3.5 |
|
September 2007 |
32 |
50 |
9 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
|
October 2007 |
34.5 |
47.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
2.5 |
^ Result included in other
|
Victoria: |
L-NP |
ALP |
Greens |
Democrats |
Family First |
One Nation |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
44.1 |
45 |
1.2 |
4 |
n/a |
n/a |
5.7 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
41.4 |
39.8 |
2.9 |
10.9 |
n/a |
n/a |
5 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
37.9 |
40.6 |
2.5 |
9.8 |
n/a |
4.1 |
5.5 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
39.6 |
36.8 |
6 |
7.8 |
n/a |
2.5 |
7.3 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
44.1 |
36.1 |
8.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
6.5 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
35.5 |
38.5 |
13 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
36 |
39.5 |
14.5 |
4.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
3 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
36 |
41 |
12 |
4 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
34 |
46 |
11 |
3.5 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
May & June, 2007 |
33 |
45.5 |
10 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
July & August, 2007 |
37 |
42 |
10.5 |
5 |
3 |
0.5 |
2 |
|
September 2007 |
34 |
48 |
10.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
|
October 2007 |
35.5 |
45 |
10.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
|
Queensland: |
Lib. |
Nat. |
ALP |
Greens |
Democrats |
Family
First |
One
Nation |
Pauline
Hanson |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
31.5 |
14.5 |
39.4 |
3.2 |
7 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
4.4 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
35.4 |
15 |
30.3 |
2.4 |
13.2 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
3.7 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
28.5 |
9.5 |
32.7 |
2.1 |
7.8 |
n/a |
14.8 |
^ |
4.6 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
34.9 |
9.2 |
31.7 |
3.3 |
6.7 |
n/a |
10 |
^ |
4.2 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
38.3 |
6.6 |
31.7 |
5.4 |
2.2 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
^ |
9.3 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
^ |
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
30 |
7 |
39 |
9 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
5.5 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
30.5 |
7 |
40 |
8.5 |
5 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
32 |
6.5 |
41 |
7.5 |
5.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
^ |
4 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
25 |
6 |
44.5 |
7 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
May & June, 2007 |
30 |
4.5 |
42 |
6.5 |
5.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
4 |
|
July & August, 2007 |
31 |
4.5 |
41.5 |
6 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
3 |
|
September 2007 |
30 |
4 |
40.5 |
6 |
4.5 |
3 |
1 |
7.5 |
3.5 |
|
October 2007 |
32.5 |
4.5 |
40 |
6.5 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
^ From March 10/11
|
South Australia: |
L-NP |
ALP |
Greens |
Democrats |
Family First |
One Nation |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
45.6 |
38 |
1.6 |
9.9 |
n/a |
n/a |
4.4 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
45.8 |
32.2 |
2.1 |
14.5 |
n/a |
n/a |
5.4 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
40.5 |
32 |
2.2 |
12.4 |
n/a |
9.7 |
3.2 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
45.5 |
33.2 |
3.5 |
12.6 |
n/a |
4.6 |
0.6 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
47.9 |
35.5 |
6.6 |
2.4 |
4 |
1.1 |
2.5 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
35 |
37 |
8 |
9 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
33.5 |
41.5 |
8 |
6 |
4.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
31.5 |
44.5 |
8.5 |
5 |
5 |
0.5 |
5 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
31.5 |
47.5 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
May & June, 2007 |
35.5 |
43.5 |
7.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
July & August, 2007 |
33.5 |
46 |
7 |
3 |
4.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
September & October, 2007 |
32.5 |
45.5 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
|
Western Australia: |
Lib. |
Nat. |
ALP |
Greens |
Democrats |
Family First |
One Nation |
CDP |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
48.4 |
1.7 |
38.3 |
5.5 |
4.1 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
2 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
45.4 |
2.1 |
34 |
5.7 |
9.4 |
n/a |
n/a |
^ |
3.4 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
38.4 |
1.3 |
34.7 |
5.7 |
6.4 |
n/a |
10.4 |
^ |
3.1 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
40.1 |
2.4 |
34.2 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
n/a |
7 |
^ |
4.5 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
49.3 |
0.9 |
32.5 |
8.1 |
2 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
^ |
3.8 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
37 |
2.5 |
37.5 |
11.5 |
4.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
|
November & December, 2006 |
37.5 |
2 |
37 |
9.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January & February, 2007 |
38 |
3 |
40.5 |
7 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
|
March & April, 2007 |
36.5 |
2.5 |
41.5 |
10 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
2 |
|
May & June, 2007 |
33.5 |
2 |
43 |
11 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
3 |
|
July & August, 2007 |
42 |
1.5 |
37 |
9.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
3 |
|
September & October, 2007 |
42 |
1.5 |
39 |
10.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
^ Result included in other
|
Tasmania: |
Lib. |
ALP |
Greens |
Democrats |
Family First |
Other |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Senate Election: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 13, 1993 |
36.7^ |
42.7 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
n/a |
12.1 |
|
March 2, 1996 |
42.3^ |
39.1 |
8.7 |
7.1 |
n/a |
2.8 |
|
October 3, 1998 |
33.8^ |
41.6 |
5.8 |
3.9 |
n/a |
14.9 |
|
November 10, 2001 |
38.8^ |
36.8 |
13.8 |
4.6 |
n/a |
6 |
|
October 9, 2004 |
46.1 |
33.5 |
13.3 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
3.9 |
|
Morgan Poll: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September & October, 2006 |
32.5 |
|
