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Electors Demand Increased Spending On Health Care As Federal Election Looms

Finding No. 4242 - November 14, 2007

Increased spending on Health (27%) is clearly the most important thing that the Federal Government could do that would most benefit electors and their families.

This is a marked change from the issue that has dominated voters’ thoughts heading into previous elections. Taxation (14%) is at its lowest recorded level, down from 32% in May 2004, and 30% in October 2001 heading into the November 2001 Election. Health, up 15% from May 2007, has increased markedly in the minds of electors to be at its highest level yet.

Of other issues, Education, HELP fees (16%, up 7% since May 2007), and Social welfare and the Aged (12%, up 1%) are important issues amongst the most often mentioned with regards to helping electors and their families. Concern about Interest rates (7%, up 5%) has also become a more important issue for electors following six consecutive interest rate rises since the last election in 2004. Concern for the Environment, (5%, down 2%) was slightly softer as the date of the Federal Election nears.

Looking at all States, electors in NSW (30%), Victoria (28%), Queensland (25%) and Tasmania (40%) are most likely to mention Health issues as the most important thing the Federal Government could do to their benefit, while in SA (23%), the most mentioned benefit was Improving/Increasing pensions/Looking after pensioners (24%) and in WA only 15% mentioned Health compared with 21% that mentioned Taxation as the most important thing for the Federal Government to look at.

Victorian (19%), Queensland (18%) and Tasmanian (18%) electors also rated Education, HELP fees as an issue that would be of more benefit than changes to Taxation. Other important issues the Federal Government could look at to benefit electors on a state by state basis are Housing affordability in Queensland (10%), Water supply/Management in South Australia (10%), Improving/Increasing pensions/Looking after pensioners in Victoria (10%) and NSW (9%) and Interest rates in SA (12%) and WA (11%).

Gary Morgan says

“The regular Tax cuts provided each year by the Coalition Government have had a significant positive effect on the electorate. Today electors are not calling for increased Tax cuts — but instead are clamouring for increased investment and funding for Health care throughout Australia.

“Health is a traditional Labor stronghold. Convincing the Australian electorate of the Coalition’s commitment to increased Health care funding and investment is a tough ask for John Howard as he attempts to claw back the deficit he faces in the polls over the coming 10 days heading into the Election.”

These are the main findings of a Morgan Poll of 820 electors conducted face to face throughout Australia on October 27/28, 2007.

For further information:

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

What could the Federal Government do that would be of most benefit to you and your family?

Electors were then asked: “Thinking about YOURSELF. What could the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT do, that would MOST BENEFIT YOU and YOUR FAMILY?"

Overall, Health (27%) was the most important issue for electors that the Federal Government could do that would most benefit electors and their families.

Looking across party lines, Health was the top issue for supporters of the L-NP (21%), ALP (30%), The Greens (32%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (27%).

L-NP supporters are in line with the overall population of electors with Health (21%), and had Taxation (20%) and Social welfare and the Aged (11%) as the next most important things the Federal Government could do to their benefit. The issues of Housing affordability (7%) and keeping Interest rates low (6%) are also important for L-NP supporters.

ALP supporters had a strong preference for the Federal Government to do something in the area of Health (30%), with Education, HELP fees (19%) also prominent. Other issues of importance to ALP supporters are Social welfare and the Aged (12%) and keeping Interest rates down (8%).

For Greens supporters, the three important issues are Health (32%), Education (31%) and the related issues of the Environment (23%) and Water supply/Management (9%) clearly the most important for electors likely to vote for The Greens on election day.

For supporters of Other Parties and Independent Candidates, Education (35%), Health (27%), Taxation (13%), Transport/Roads (12%) and support for Social welfare and the Aged (13%) were the most mentioned issues the Federal Government could do something about for their benefit.

What could the Federal Government do that would be of most benefit to you and your family?

ANALYSIS BY YEAR

All Electors

Jul

Mar

Jul

Nov

Feb

Nov

Mar

Oct

Dec

May

May

May

Oct

Summary Issues

‘94

‘95

‘95

‘95

‘99

‘99

'01

'01

'02

'03

‘04

‘07

‘07

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Health

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

16

13

12

26

Medicare/Bulk billing

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

7

2

*

1

Private health insurance

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

2

*

*

Total Health

8

7

9

8

10

12

7

10

12

22

16

12

27

Taxation/Lower taxes

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

18

15

12

13

15

26

25

15

11

Tax reform

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

3

*

5

4

6

5

5

1

1

Taxation/no GST

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

4

3

8

12

3

3

3

2

1

Other taxation issues

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

4

8

*

3

4

1

1

2

1

Total Taxation

26

26

25

25

29

26

25

30

25

34

32

18

14

Education, HELP fees

6

5

6

6

5

9

9

13

8

13

12

9

16

Social welfare and the Aged

11

11

11

11

9

11

13

12

13

10

13

11

12

Interest rates

3

10

5

7

1

1

2

1

*

*

3

2

7

Environment

1

1

2

1

1

*

1

1

1

3

3

7

5

Housing affordability

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

2

3

5

Transport/Roads

1

*

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

1

2

4

Child and youth services

5

4

3

4

1

2

2

2

3

2

2

4

4

Work conditions/IR

4

4

4

4

1

3

5

4

3

1

*

4

3

Increase wages

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

5

1

3

Family issues

2

2

1

2

3

2

3

3

3

1

3

2

2

Petrol prices

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

2

4

2

Water supply/Management

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

3

2

Industry and Business

4

4

5

4

1

2

3

1

2

3

2

2

2

Unemployment

9

6

8

7

6

8

5

5

3

2

3

1

1

Defence/National security

*

*

*

*

*

*

1

1

2

1

*

1

1

Quality of Govt./Politicians

1

3

2

3

1

2

3

2

2

1

2

2

1

Law and order

1

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Superannuation/Self-funded retirees

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

3

4

1

1

Economy and Finance

6

10

8

9

4

4

6

3

3

2

1

2

1

Limit immigration

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

*

*

*

1

1

Trade and Foreign policy

*

1

2

1

1

1

*

*

1

-

1

2

1

Reduce cost of living

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

2

2

1

Equality

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

*

*

-

1

*

Aborigines

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

*

*

-

1

*

Other

4

2

3

3

7

2

3

3

3

7

6

*

1

Total mentioned an issue

81

80

78

80

84

79

81

80

78

88

89

71

85

Nothing/Can't say

19

20

22

20

16

21

19

20

22

12

11

29

15

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Results from sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

- Not mentioned

* Less than 1%

n/a Not available

Multiple answers allowed

What could the Federal Government do that would be of most benefit to you and your family?

ANALYSIS BY VOTING INTENTION

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Total

L-NP

ALP

The Greens

Ind/ Other #

No Answer #

%

%

%

%

%

%

Health

26

21

29

30

27

20

Medicare/Bulk billing

1

*

1

-

-

-

Private health insurance

*

*

*

-

-

-

Total Health

27

21

30

32

27

20

Taxation/Lower taxes

11

14

8

8

9

12

Tax reform

1

2

*

-

-

-

Taxation/no GST

1

2

1

1

1

-

Other tax

1

1

1

-

3

2

Total Taxation

14

20

11

8

13

14

Education, HELP fees

16

6

19

31

35

7

Social welfare and the Aged

12

11

12

7

13

13

Interest rates

7

6

8

-

11

-

Environment

5

2

5

23

2

2

Housing affordability

5

7

5

3

-

-

Transport/Roads

4

4

3

7

12

1

Child and youth services

4

4

5

1

-

1

Work conditions/IR

3

3

4

1

1

Increase wages

3

1

4

-

14

6

Family issues

2

2

2

3

-

-

Petrol prices

2

2

2

-

2

1

Water supply/Management

2

3

1

9

-

1

Industry and Business

2

2

3

1

3

-

Unemployment

1

1

-

2

3

-

Defence/National security

1

1

1

-

-

-

Quality of Govt/Politicians

1

1

1

-

1

1

Law and order

1

2

1

-

2

2

Superannuation/Self funded retirees

1

*

1

-

-

4

Economy and Finance

1

3

*

-

-

1

Limit immigration

1

2

*

-

1

-

Trade and Foreign policy

1

-

1

2

-

-

Reduce cost of living

1

1

1

-

2

-

Stop the War on Terror

*

-

-

3

-

-

Help immigrants/Refugees

*

1

*

2

-

-

Equality

*

-

*

-

-

-

Aborigines

*

-

*

-

-

-

Other

1

*

*

6

-

4

Total mentioned an issue

85

80

86

89

89

53

Nothing/Can't say

15

20

14

11

11

47

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Results from sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

- Not mentioned

* Less than 1%

n/a Not available

Multiple answers allowed

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.