Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Roy Morgan OZ Panel Login  |  Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |

Analysis of October face-to-face Morgan Polls finds that the gap between the major parties closed by 5.5% with support for the Coalition at 39% (up 2.5% from September), whilst ALP was 48.5% (down 3%).

Support for the ALP remained strong in the Eastern State Capitals with ALP support in Sydney at 53%, Brisbane (52%) and Melbourne (50%).  Adelaide (43.5%) and Perth (44%) once again were well behind.

Support for the ALP in the country lagged behind metropolitan support with Victoria Country (45%) and Western Australia Country (35%) the lowest two levels of support for the ALP.  The notable exception to this trend was the very high level of ALP support in South Australia Country (57%) — which includes Northern Territory results.

L-NP primary support in the Capital Cities for October was led by Perth (44%) and Adelaide (43.5%).  Support for the L-NP lagged in the other metropolitan areas with Melbourne (38%), Brisbane (36%) and Sydney (35%) all well behind.  The lowest L-NP support though was in Tasmania, at less than one-third of the primary vote, (32%) — 15.5% behind the Tasmanian support for the ALP.

In rural areas, L-NP support remained steadfast in Western Australia Country (49%), and competitive in Queensland Country (43%), but was well behind the ALP support in the other states.  In South Australia Country / Northern Territory, the L-NP support (37.5%) was close to 20% behind the ALP support (57%)

Primary support for the Greens rose 0.5% to 7% during October, with support leaping strongly by 6% in Tasmania to 14% whilst the highest Greens support in Mainland Capital cities is in Brisbane (9.5%) and  Melbourne (9%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP, up 2.5%, rebounded from a poor September Roy Morgan Polling result to regain some of their competitiveness with an improved October polling result and an increase in primary support. Combined with a drop in ALP support of 3%, the Roy Morgan Polling gap closed after John Howard finally set the election date.

“The October results illustrate the ongoing ALP strength in the key areas of Queensland and NSW with ALP primary support in Brisbane at 52%, Sydney at 53%. Continued ALP weakness in Perth (44.5%) indicates gaining seats there from the L-NP will be much harder for Labor. In Victoria Country L-NP support (39.5%) could mean gains for the ALP.

“With ALP support at 43.5% in Adelaide, the seats of Kingston, Wakefield and Makin are likely to be won by the ALP on minor party preferences — the question is how many other “tight seats” will be similarly decided as the election “hots up” around the country?  The low L-NP vote in Tasmania (32%) must be a worry for the Coalition as it tries to retain a foothold in the Island State with the key marginal seats of Bass and Braddon”

These are the main findings of October face-to-face Morgan Polls, conducted face-to-face with 4,013 electors in all electorates throughout Australia during the weekends of October 2007.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:    Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Analysis by State & Area

	All Electors				Analysis by State
	2004 Election	Aug 2007	Sep 2007	Oct 2007	2004 Election	NSW^	2004 Election	Victoria	2004 Election	Queensland	2004 Election	South Australia*	2004 Election	Western Australia	2004 Election	Tas.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Liberal Party	40.5	35.5	34	36.5	36.2	33.5	43.2	37	39.4	36	47.4	40.5	48.1	43.5	42.0	32
National Party	5.9	3	2.5	2.5	9.2	3.5	3.5	1.5	9.8	4	1.0	0.5	0.6	2	-	-
Total LNP	46.4	38.5	36.5	39	45.4	37	46.7	38.5	49.2	40	48.4	41	48.7	45.5	42.0	32
ALP	37.6	47.5	51.5	48.5	36.7	50	40.5	48.5	34.8	49	36.8	48.5	34.8	42	44.6	47.5
Greens	7.2	7	6.5	7	8.1	6.5	7.5	9.5	5.1	5.5	5.4	4	7.7	6.5	9.9	14
Democrats	1.2	1	1	1	1.1	0.5	1.1	1	1.4	0.5	1.9	2.5	1.5	1.5	-	0.5
Family First	2.0	1.5	1.5	1.5	0.8	1.5	2.4	1.5	3.7	2	4.3	2	0.2	0.5	2.8	1
One Nation	1.2	1	0.5	0.5	1.4	1	0.1	0.5	2.0	**	1.1	0.5	2.5	1.5	-	-
Others/Independent	4.4	3.5	2.5	2.5	6.5	3.5	1.7	0.5	3.8	3	2.1	1.5	4.6	2.5	0.7	5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

** Less than 0.5%

^ NSW includes ACT

* SA includes Northern Territory

	All Electors				Analysis by Area
	2004 Election	Aug 2007	Sep 2007	Oct 2007	Sydney	NSW Country^	Melbourne	Vic Country	Brisbane	Qld Country	Adelaide	SA Country*	Perth	WA Country	Tas.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Liberal Party	40.5	35.5	34	36.5	34.5	32	38	35	34	37.5	42	37.5	43.5	42.5	32
National Party	5.9	3	2.5	2.5	0.5	8	-	4.5	2	5.5	1.5	-	0.5	6.5	-
Total LNP	46.4	38.5	36.5	39	35	40	38	39.5	36	43	43.5	37.5	44	49	32
ALP	37.6	47.5	51.5	48.5	53	46.5	50	45	52	47	43.5	57	44.5	35	47.5
Greens	7.2	7	6.5	7	7	6	9	11	9.5	2.5	6.5	1	6	7.5	14
Democrats	1.2	1	1	1	1	0.5	1	1	1	0.5	4	-	1.5	1.5	0.5
Family First	2.0	1.5	1.5	1.5	0.5	2	1.5	2.5	1	2.5	2	1.5	-	1	1
One Nation	1.2	1	0.5	0.5	1	1.5	**	0.5	-	0.5	-	1.5	2	1	-
Others/Independent	4.4	3.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	4	0.5	1.5	2	5	5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

** Less than 0.5%

 ^ NSW Country includes ACT

* SA Country includes Northern Territory

Analysis by Voting Strength

	All Electors			Analysis by Sex & Age
	Aug 2007	Sep 2007	Oct 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Strong L-NP voters	33	31.5	34	34.5	33.5	25	30	31.5	37	42.5
Soft L-NP voters	5.5	5	5	4.5	5.5	4	6	4	4.5	6
Total L-NP voters	38.5	36.5	39	39	39	29	36	35.5	41.5	48.5
Soft ALP voters	18	19	21	25	17.5	26.5	22	22.5	18.5	19
Strong ALP voters	29.5	32.5	27.5	25	29.5	25	26	29	28.5	26.5
Total ALP voters	47.5	51.5	48.5	50	47	51.5	48	51.5	47	45.5
Greens voters	7	6.5	7	6	8	13	10	7.5	6	2.5
Ind./Other voters	7	5.5	5.5	5	6	6.5	6	5.5	5.5	3.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Strong L-NP voters:                     - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and

                                                     - would vote L-NP if an election were held today.

Soft L-NP voters:                          - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and

                                                     - would vote L-NP if an election were held today.

Soft ALP voters:                           - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and

                                                     - would vote Labor if an election were held today.

Strong ALP voters:                       - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and

                                                     - would vote Labor if an election were held today.

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement