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Overall the electorate has been more ‘persuaded’ by ALP advertising than L-NP advertising — according to Roy Morgan’s Reactor.

On Wednesday evening and Thursday (November 14/15), electors all over Australia reacted to current political advertising.  An Australia-wide sample of 544 electors (229 L-NP supporters and 315 ALP supporters) was selected by Roy Morgan Research using a stratified random probability sampling methodology designed to provide a representative sample of the Australian electorate. 

Using the Roy Morgan Reactor, respondents reacted online to the seven main political advertisements running on television for the L-NP and ALP, ACTU, and ALP/Greens/Australian Democrats in terms of whether the advertising made them “more inclined to the L-NP or the ALP”.  Between each advertisement, respondents returned to a neutral position.  The Reactor graph shows clearly how ALP supporters (the Red line) reacted, and how L-NP supporters (the Blue line) reacted.  The higher on the graph the more ‘inclined to vote L-NP’, the lower on the graph the more ‘inclined to vote ALP’.

Typically, respondents react along party lines to spokespeople for their party, or on issues where the parties have differing views or policies.  The electorate’s reaction to the advertisements displayed some of the usual ‘party-line’ response.

However, the ACTU advertisement of the young woman and the middle-aged couple talking about how Work Choices is hurting working families, clearly moved L-NP supporters as well as their own followers; as did the ALP ad reminding people of the six interest rate rises under the L-NP Government.

On the other hand, the L-NP advertising appeared to be essentially talking to L-NP supporters.  For example, the L-NP advertisement showing Julia Gillard’s historical involvement with the unions, served to encourage ALP voters to the ALP (L-NP voters reacted as expected, and showed their support for the L-NP).

The ALP/Greens/Australian Democrats ad about ‘time to restore the balance to the House of Review’ did not move either ALP or L-NP supporters to any extent.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan Research, says:

“This is not good news for the L-NP.  At a time when the Morgan Poll show the ALP well ahead of the L-NP in terms of voter support, the L-NP needs to move ALP supporters back to the L-NP.  The Reactor shows the recent advertising has reinforced L-NP support, but has failed to persuade ALP supporters.

“In theory, the ALP needs only to hold its current support base.

“However, given the expectation that the gap will narrow by election day, it is crucial that ALP advertising ‘cements’ the current supporters, and attracts some new supporters from the L-NP support base.  The Roy Morgan Reactor shows that the ALP and ACTU advertising has some ‘persuasive power’.  The ‘Work Choices hurting working families’ ad and the ‘Six interest rate rises and the L-NP Government’ ad moved both ALP and L-NP toward the ALP supporters.

“As usual the key group to watch are ‘soft ALP voters’ and the question is whether the L-NP advertising has had any persuasive impact on them.”

Click to see the live Reactor.

Detailed analysis of the Roy Morgan Reactor on ‘Election Ads’ is available for $9,800.

To purchase or enquire about the CD-ROM contact Luke Griffiths on +61 3 9223 2466.

More details available at: /products/the-reactor/the-reactor.cfm

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                                 Office + 61 3 9224 5213                     Mobile + 61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:                              Office + 61 3 9224 5215                     Mobile + 61 411 129 093

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