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ALP Maintains Big Lead Over Coalition

Finding No. 4245 - November 16, 2007

On November 10/11, the weekend after the interest rate rise but before the L-NP’s official campaign launch in Brisbane, Coalition support was 39% (unchanged from the telephone Morgan Poll conducted November 7/8), while ALP primary support was 48% — up 3.5% from the telephone Morgan Poll.

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 56.5% (up 0.5%), L-NP 43.5% (down 0.5%). If the Federal election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won in a landslide, the latest ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 7% (down 3.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 1% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (up 2%).

Six-in-ten electors (60%, up 1.5%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election, while 30% (up 1.5%) think the L-NP will win and 10% (down 3%) can’t say.

A majority of electors (55.5%, unchanged) think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while 29% (down 2%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” — 15.5% (up 2%) are undecided.

Currently, 21% (up 2%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today. The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.

Gary Morgan says:

“The result of the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll, conducted last weekend (November 10/11) — after the latest interest rate rise but before Prime Minister John Howard launched a spending spree at the Coalition’s official campaign launch in Brisbane — is similar to the telephone Morgan Poll conducted November 7/8.

“Coalition support remains unchanged at 39%, while support for Labor is up 3.5% to 48%. The ALP’s two-party preferred vote lead has increased by 1% to 13%: 56.5% cf. 43.5%.

“If these results are replicated on Election Day, the ALP will win in a landslide.

“On Sunday, we will be releasing two special voting intention Morgan Polls:


1. “An Australia-wide telephone survey; and


2. “A special telephone poll conducted in 22 marginal Coalition seats — the results of the marginal L-NP seat poll will show whether the Coalition has any chance of retaining these seats — critical in determining who wins Government.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” 

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of November 10/11, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 890 electors. 

Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% did not name a party. 

DURING THE PERIOD:

  • Prime Minister John Howard and Treasurer Peter Costello apologised for the sixth interest rate rise since the last election;
  • Early voting centres for the Federal Election were opened;
  • Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey and his Labor counterpart, Julia Gillard, participated in a debate at the National Press Club over the key election issue of industrial relations; and
  • Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his Labor counterpart, Peter Garrett, also took part in a debate to address the issue of climate change.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

 

Interviewing Dates

 

May

26/27

June

2/3

June 9/10

& 16/17

June 23/24 &

June 30/July 1

July 7/8

& 14/15

July 21/22

& 28/29

Aug 4/5

& 11/12

Aug 18/19

& 25/26

Sep

1/2

Sep

8/9

Sep

15/16

Sep

22/23

Sep

29/30

Oct

6/7

Oct

13/14

Oct

17/18^

Oct

20/21

Oct

24/25^

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

% % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

50.5

48.5

51.5

51.5

55.5

49 49 48.5 47 48 52.5 52 49.5 53 57.5 53 53.5 63.5

Wrong direction

33

32.5

33.5

31

30

33.5 34.5 33 34.5 37 32 32 34.5 28.5 29 31.5 30 28

Can’t say

16.5

19

15

17.5

14.5

17.5 16.5 18.5 18.5 15 15.5 16 16 18.5 13.5 15.5 16.5 8.5

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

Interviewing Dates

 

Oct

27/28

Nov

3/4

Nov

7/8^

Nov

10/11

                           
 

%

% % %                            

Right direction

56

50 55.5 55.5                            

Wrong direction

30

30.5 31 29                            

Can’t say

14

19.5 13.5 15.5                            

Total

100

100 100 100                            

^ Phone Poll

VOTING STRENGTH

 

Interviewing Dates

 

May

26/27

June

2/3

June 9/10

& 16/17

June 23/24 &

June 30/July 1

July 7/8

& 14/15

July 21/22

& 28/29

Aug 4/5

& 11/12

Aug 18/19

& 25/26

Sep

1/2

Sep

8/9

Sep

15/16

Sep

22/23

Sep

29/30

Oct

6/7

Oct 13/14 Oct 17/18^ Oct 20/21

Oct

24/25^

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

% % % % % % % % % % %
%

Strong L-NP voters

32

32

32.5

31

36

34 31.5 34.5 28.5 32 34.5 32.5 30 33 34.5 30 35
35.5

Soft L-NP voters

5.5

6

4.5

5

4.5

6.5 5 6.5 6 4 5 3.5 5.5 5 5 9.5 4.5
5.5

Total L-NP voters

37.5

38

37

36

40.5

40.5 36.5 41 34.5 36 39.5 36 35.5 38 39.5 39.5 39.5
41

Soft ALP voters

17.5

19

19

20.5

19.5

17 19 17 18.5 17 19 20 21.5 21.5 22.5 17.5 19
23

Strong ALP voters

31.5

32

29

30

28

30 30.5 29 30.5 34 30.5 34 32 28 27 27.5 28
21

Total ALP voters

49

51

48

50.5

47.5

47 49.5 46 49 51 49.5 54 53.5 49.5 49.5 45 47
44

Greens voters

6

5.5

6.5

7

5.5

6.5 7 6.5 9 6 6 5.5 5.5 6 7 9 8
10.5

Ind./Other voters

7.5

5.5

8.5

7

6.5

6 7 6.5 7.5 7 5 4.5 5.5 6.5 4 6.5 5.5
4.5

Total

100*

100*

100*

100*

100*

100* 100* 100* 100* 100* 100* 100* 100* 100* 100* 100* 100*
100*

Did not name a party

3

5

4.5

4.5

5

4 4.5 5 5.5 4 5 4.5 4.5 5.5 4 4.5 4
2

 

Interviewing Dates

 

Oct

27/28

Nov

 3/4

Nov

7/8^

Nov

10/11

                           
 

%

% % %                            

Strong L-NP voters

33.5

30 28.5 34                            

Soft L-NP voters

5.5

4 10.5 5                            

Total L-NP voters

39

34

39

39

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soft ALP voters

21.5

23 19 21                            

Strong ALP voters

27.5

31.5 25.5 27                            

Total ALP voters

49

54.5

44.5

48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Greens voters

7.5

6 10.5 7                            

Ind./Other voters

4.5

5.5 6 6                            

Total

100*

100* 100* 100*                            

Did not name a party

5

4.5 3.5 3.5                            

* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party

^ Phone Poll

 

Strong L-NP voters:        - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and

                                    - would vote L-NP if an election were held today.

Soft L-NP voters:            - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and

                                    - would vote L-NP if an election were held today.

Soft ALP voters:             - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and

                                    - would vote Labor if an election were held today.

Strong ALP voters:         - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and

                                    - would vote Labor if an election were held today.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win
L-NP
ALP
Can't Say
% % %
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004
56 28 16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004
55.5 30 14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004
63.5 23 13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004
64 23.5 12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005
69.5 19.5 11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005
67 21.5 11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005
67 21.5 11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005
63.5 23.5 13
March 5/6, 2005
57 31 12
March 12/13, 2005
60 27.5 12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005
57.5 28 14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005
57.5 28 14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005
55 31.5 13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005
59 29 12
May 14/15, 2005
63.5 23.5 13
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005
59.5 27 13.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005
61 27 12
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005
59.5 27 13.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005
60 27 13
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005
61.5 26 12.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005
61.5 24.5 14
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005
61 24.5 14.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005
64 23.5 12.5
September 10/11, 2005
60.5 27 12.5
September 17/18, 2005
66 21.5 12.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005
65 24 11
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005
65 23.5 11.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005
60 26.5 13.5
November 5/6, 2005
55 32.5 12.5
November 12/13, 2005
61 27.5 11.5
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005
50 36.5 13.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005
54.5 33 12.5
December 17/18, 2005
58 28 14
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006
59 27 14
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006
65 25 10
February 4/5, 2006
62 27 11
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006
60 27 13
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006
66 23 11
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006
69 20.5 10.5
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006
64.5 25 10.5
April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006
62 26.5 11.5
April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006
63.5 24.5 12
May 6/7, 2006
60.5 28 11.5
May 13/14, 2006
70 20 10
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006
64.5 22 13.5
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006
61.5 26.5 12
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006
58.5 28.5 13
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006
56.5 30 13.5
July 15/16, 2006
61 28 11
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006
59.5 29 11.5
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006
58.5 28 13.5
August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006
59.5 28.5 12
September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006
58 30 12
September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006
59.5 27.5 13
September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006
58.5 28 13.5
October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006
58.5 28.5 13
October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006
59.5 28.5 12
November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006
58 29.5 12.5
November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006
58 28.5 13.5
December 9/10, 2006
46 39.5 14.5
December 16/17, 2006
45.5 41 13.5
January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007
48 38.5 13.5
January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007
47.5 38.5 14
February 3/4, 2007 43 44 13
February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 40 45.5 14.5
February 23/24, 2007 31.5 52.5 16
March 3/4, 2007 39.5 47.5 13
March 10/11, 2007 36 50 14
March 17/18, 2007 30.5 54.5 15
March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 31 56.5 12.5
April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 31.5 55 13.5
April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 29.5 55.5 15
May 5/6, 2007 33 55 12
May 12/13, 2007 38 49 13
May 19/20, 2007 32 55 13
May 26/27, 2007 33 55 12
June 2/3, 2007 28.5 59

12.5

June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 35.5 50 14.5
June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 37 50 13
July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 34.5 52 13.5
July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 28 58 14
August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 28 60 12
August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 31.5 55 13.5
September 1/2 , 2007 26.5 60.5 13
September 8/9, 2007 24.5 66 9.5
September 15/16, 2007 26 63 11
September 22/23, 2007 30.5 56.5 13

September 29/30, 2007

27 61 12
October 6/7, 2007 27.5 61 11.5
October 13/14, 2007 25.5 62 12.5
October 17/18, 2007 (Phone Poll) 31.5 55.5 13
October 20/21, 2007 33 54 13
October 24/25, 2007 (Phone Poll) 27 63.5 9.5
October 27/28, 2007 29 59 12
November 3/4, 2007 28.5 58.5 13
November 7/8, 2007 (Phone Poll) 28.5 58.5 13
November 10/11, 2007 30 60 10

 

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE L-NP ALP Aust.
Dem.#
The
Greens

Family

First#

One
Nation#
Ind./
Others
  % % % % % % %
Election March 2, 1996 47.3 (8.6) 38.8 6.8 1.7 * N/A 5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1 39.5 (5.3) 40.1 5.1 2.1 * 8.5 4.7
Election November 10, 2001 43 (5.6) 37.8 5.4 4.4 * 4.3 5.1
Election October 9, 2004 46.4 (5.9) 37.6 1.2 7.2 2 1.2 4.4
MORGAN POLL

Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004

44.5 (2.5)

39.5

2

8.5

2

1

2.5

Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004

44 (3)

39

2

8.5

1.5

1

4

Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004

46.5 (2.5)

36

1.5

9

2.5

1

3.5

Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004

45.5 (3)

36.5

1.5

9.5

2

1.5

3.5

Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005

47 (3.5)

37

1.5

7.5

2

1

4

Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005

45 (2.5)

38

2

8

2

1.5

3.5

Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005

45 (2.5)

37.5

2

9

2

1

3.5

Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005

46 (2.5)

38.5

2

7.5

1

0.5

4.5

Mar 5/6, 2005

42 (2.5)

43

1.5

7

2.5

1

3

Mar 12/13, 2005

44.5 (2.5)

37

1

10

2.5

1

4

Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005

44 (2.5)

39

1.5

8

2

1

4.5

Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005

40.5 (1.5)

43

1.5

8

2

1.5

3.5

April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005

42 (2)

40

2

8.5

1.5

1

5

April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005

42(2.5)

42.5

1.5

8

1.5

1

3.5

May 14/15, 2005

43(1.5)

41

1.5

8

2

0.5

4

May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005

45 (2)

39

1.5

7.5

1.5

0.5

5

June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005

43.5 (1.5)

39.5

1.5

7.5

2

1.5

4.5

June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005

42 (2.5)

39.5

2

9

2.5

1

4

July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005

42.5 (2)

40.5

1.5

7.5

2.5

1

4.5

July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005

41.5 (2.5)

38.5

2.5

8

1.5

2

6

July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005

41.5 (4)

42

2

7.5

2

1

4

August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005

39 (2.5)

41.5

2

8

3

1.5

5

August 27/28 & September 3/4

44 (3.5)

37

1.5

8.5

3

1

5

September 10/11, 2005

39.5 (3)

41.5

1.5

7

3

0.5

7

September 17/18, 2005

44 (2.5)

34.5

2.5

10

2

1.5

5.5

September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005

42 (3.5)

38.5

2.5

9

2

1.5

4.5

October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005

39.5 (2.5)

41.5

2

9

2

1.5

4.5

October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005

39 (3.5)

41

2.5

9.5

2

1

5

November 5/6, 2005

38.5 (3)

43

1.5

9.5

2

1

4.5

November 12/13, 2005

43.5 (3)

38

1.5

9

2

-

6

November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005

35.5 (2.5)

45.5

2

9

2

1.5

4.5

December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005

38.5 (2.5)

42

2

10

2.5

1

4

December 17/18, 2005

39.5 (4)

39.5

1.5

10.5

3

1.5

4.5

January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006

39 (3.5)

43

2

8

3

1

4

January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006

42 (2.5)

38

2

8.5

2.5

1

6

February 4/5, 2006

40.5 (3.5)

42

1.5

8

2

1

5

February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006

40 (3)

40.5

2.5

8

2

1

6

February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006

43 (3.5)

39.5

1.5

8

2

1

5

March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006

44 (3.5)

38.5

1.5

8.5

2.5

1

4

March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006

39 (2)

43.5

1.5

8

2

1

5

April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006

38.5 (2)

42

1.5

9.5

2.5

0.5

5.5

April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006

40 (3)

39

2.5

8.5

2.5

1

6.5

May 6/7, 2006

39 (2)

42

2.5

9.5

1.5

1

4.5

May 13/14, 2006

42 (2.5)

40.5

2.5

7

1.5

0.5

6

May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006

42 (3.5)

41

1.5

7.5

3

1

4

June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006

39.5 (2.5)

42

2

8

2.5

1.5

4.5

June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006

42 (3)

40.5

1.5

8.5

1.5

0.5

5.5

July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006

39 (3)

42.5

2.5

8.5

2.5

1

4

July 15/16, 2006

45 (2.5)

36.5

1.5

7.5

2.5

1.5

5.5

July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006

40 (2.5)

42

2

8

2.5

1

4.5

August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006

40.5 (3.5)

41.5

2

8.5

3

1

3.5

August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006

39 (2)

42.5

2.5

8

2.5

0.5

5

September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006

38 (2.5)

43

2.5

9

2

0.5

5

September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006

41.5 (3)

41.5

2.5

8

1

1

4.5

September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006

39 (3)

42

2

9.5

2

1

4.5

October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006

40.5 (3.5)

41.5

2

8.5

2

0.5

5

October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006

41.5 (3.5)

40.5

1.5

9

2

1

4.5

November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006

40.5 (2.5)

40.5

2.5

10

2

1

3.5

November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006

41.5 (3)

41

1.5

9

1.5

1

4.5

December 9/10, 2006

34.5 (3)

50

1.5

7

2.5

1

3.5

December 16/17, 2006

35.5 (3.5)

49

2.5

7

2

1

3

January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007

36.5 (3)

47

1.5

8

2

1.5

3.5

January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007

39 (2.5)

43.5

1.5

7.5

2.5

1.5

4.5

February 3/4, 2007

37 (2.5)

47

2

8

1.5

0.5

4

February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007

38 (2.5)

48

1.5

7

1.5

0.5

3.5

February 24/25, 2007

34 (3.5)

52.5

0.5

7.5

1.5

1

3

March 3/4, 2007

33 (3.5)

51.5

2

7

1.5

1

4

March 10/11, 2007

34 (3)

51.5

1.5

7.5

2

1

2.5

March 17/18, 2007

36 (2.5)

48.5

1

8

2.5

1

3

March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007

34.5 (3)

49.5

1.5

9

1.5

0.5

3.5

April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007

35.5 (3.5)

50

1

7.5

1.5

0.5

4

April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007

34.5 (3.5)

52.5

1.5

6.5

1.5

0.5

3

May 5/6, 2007

35.5 (2)

51.5

1

7

1.5

0.5

3

May 12/13, 2007

36 (2)

51

1

8

1.5

0.5

2

May 19/20, 2007

35.5 (2)

51

1

8

1.5

1

2

May 26/27, 2007

37.5 (2)

49

1

6

2

1.5

3

June 2/3, 2007

38 (2.5)

51

0.5

5.5

1.5

1

2.5

June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007

37 (2.5)

48

1.5

6.5

2

1

4

June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007

36 (2.5)

50.5

0.5

7

1.5

1

3.5

July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007

40.5 (2.5)

47.5

1.5

5.5

2

^

3

July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007

40.5 (2.5)

47

1

6.5

1.5

0.5

3

August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007

36.5 (3)

49.5

1.5

7

2

1

2.5

August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007

41 (2.5)

46

1

6.5

1.5

1

3

September 1/2, 2007

34.5(1.5)

49

2

9

2

0.5

3

September 8/9, 2007

36 (2)

51

1

6

2

0.5

3.5

September 15/16, 2007

39.5 (3)

49.5

0.5

6

1.5

1

2

September 22/23, 2007

36 (2.5)

54

0.5

5.5

1

0.5

2.5

September 29/30, 2007