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A special telephone Morgan Poll of 435 electors conducted last night (November 20) shows a swing (0.8%) to the Liberals in the five Western Australian marginal seats of Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan.

In these five key WA seats, Liberal primary support is 44%, ALP 42.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 1% and Independent/Others 3%.

After allocating preferences the two-party preferred result is Liberal 50.5%, ALP 49.5% - a swing of 0.8% to the Liberals since the 2004 election.

Of WA electors surveyed, 54% say Australia is heading in the “right direction”, 30% say Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” — 16% are undecided.

Gary Morgan says:

“The telephone Morgan Poll conducted November 15-17 in Hasluck and Stirling and released on Sunday (November 18) identified a swing of 3.1% to the Liberals in those seats.  As these seats are so crucial to the outcome of Saturday's election, last night the Morgan Poll re-surveyed the two Liberal WA marginal seats, as well as three ALP WA marginal seats — Swan, Cowan and Brand.

“Last night’s telephone Morgan Poll confirms that the two Liberal marginal seats of Hasluck and Stirling should be retained.  It also finds that the Liberals may actually win a seat from the ALP, as the swing in the ALP marginals is not uniform — Swan is the seat most likely to go to the Liberals.

“A large proportion of the ‘undecided’ voters are those people who voted for the Coalition at the 2004 election.

“The Greens vote of 9.5% is particularly high — using past elections as a guide, this Greens vote will most likely come down on election day.  Preferences of Greens voters went 68% ALP, 32% Liberal.”

Electors were asked: “At the Federal election for the House of Representatives on Saturday, which party will receive your first preference?” 

Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% did not name a party they would vote for November 24.

LIBERAL MARGINALS   —            Swing to lose: Hasluck (1.9%); Stirling (2.1%)

ALP MARGINALS          —            Swing to lose: Swan (0.1%); Cowan (0.8%); Brand (4.7%)

			Liberal Marginals			ALP Marginals		Five Perth Marginals
	Five Perth Marginals		Hasluck & Stirling			Swan, Cowan & Brand		Analysis by Sex		Analysis by Age
	2004 Election	Nov 20, 2007	2004 Election	Nov 15-17, 2007	Nov 20, 2007	2004 Election	Nov 20, 2007	Men	Women	Under 35	35 +
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Liberal	44.2	44	46.4	47.5	48.5	42.8	41	44.5	43	42.5	44
ALP	41.7	42.5	38.6	38.5	38.5	43.7	45	43	42	42.5	42.5
Greens	6.5	9.5	7.0	8	9	6.2	10	8.5	10.5	8.5	10
One Nation	2.3	1	2.4	3	-	2.2	1.5	1.5	0.5	1	1
Ind/Other	5.3	3	5.6	4	4	5.1	2.5	2.5	4	5.5	2.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
T-PP
Liberal	49.7	50.5	51.9	55	56	48.1	46.5	50	51	51	50
ALP	50.3	49.5	48.1	45	44	51.9	53.5	50	49	49	50

This special telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on Tuesday night (November 20) with a cross-section of 435 electors in the Western Australian Federal electorates of Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:    Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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