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The first post-election Morgan Poll since the Rudd Government’s victory shows the inevitable boost in ALP primary support, now 49% (up 5.6% since the election), with L-NP support at 36.5%, Greens 7%, Family First 1.5%, and Others 6%.  On a two-party preferred basis, ALP support is 58.5%, L-NP 41.5%.

With the election of the Rudd Government, the proportion of Australians saying Australia is going in the “right direction” is 60%, up 6% since election eve.  A low 15.5% (down 14.5%) think the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (GCR) is 144.5.  The GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Australians who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.

Gary Morgan says:

“This new measure — the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating — complements the existing Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating that focuses on Australian consumers’ view of their financial well-being and expectations for the country’s economy.

“The Roy Morgan GCR is a broad-based index we have designed to measure the sense of ‘comfort’ or ‘discomfort’ with the entire direction of the country — which may include social issues, technological issues, international issues or political and leadership issues.”

This latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on December 5/6, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,263 electors.

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” 

Of all electors surveyed, 6.5% did not name a party.

During the period:

• John Howard was forced to concede defeat to Labor leader Kevin Rudd in the 2007 Election;
• Newly-sworn in Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced his cabinet, with deputy Prime Minster Julia Gillard in charge of Education and Employment and Workplace Relations, and Wayne Swan acting as treasurer;
• Brendan Nelson beat rival Malcolm Turnbull to secure his position as the new Opposition leader; and
• The NSW and Victorian State Governments lifted a ban on genetically-modified canola crops.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government
	May 26/27	June 2/3	June 9/10 & 16/17	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1	July 7/8 & 14/15	July 21/22 & 28/29	Aug 4/5 & 11/12	Aug 18/19 & 25/26	Sep 1/2	Sep 8/9	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	50.5	48.5	51.5	51.5	55.5	49	49	48.5	47	48	52.5	52	49.5
Wrong direction	33	32.5	33.5	31	30	33.5	34.5	33	34.5	37	32	32	34.5
Roy Morgan GCR*	117.5	116	118	120.5	125.5	115.5	114.5	115.5	112.5	111	120.5	120	115
Can’t say	16.5	19	15	17.5	14.5	17.5	16.5	18.5	18.5	15	15.5	16	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government
	Oct 6/7	Oct 13/14	Oct 17/18^	Oct 20/21	Oct 24/25^	Oct 27/28	Nov 3/4	Nov 7/8^	Nov 10/11	Nov 15-17^	Nov 17/18	Nov 21/22^	Nov 23^
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	53	57.5	53	53.5	63.5	56	50	55.5	55.5	48	52.5	52	54
Wrong direction	28.5	29	31.5	30	28	30	30.5	31	29	37	30	34	30
Roy Morgan GCR*	124.5	128.5	121.5	123.5	135.5	126	119.5	124.5	126.5	111	122.5	118	124
Can’t say	18.5	13.5	15.5	16.5	8.5	14	19.5	13.5	15.5	15	17.5	14	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — ALP Government
	Dec 5/6^
	%
Right direction	60
Wrong direction	15.5
Roy Morgan GCR*	144.5
Can’t say	24.5
Total	100

^ Phone Poll

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	ALP	L-NP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
December 5/6, 2007	58	14.5	27.5

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

			The	Family	Ind./
	ALP	L-NP	Greens	First#	Others#
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS	%	%	%	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	38.8	47.3 (8.6)	1.7	†	12.2
Election October 3, 1998^	40.1	39.5 (5.3)	2.1	†	18.3
Election November 10, 2001	37.8	43 (5.6)	4.4	†	13.8
Election October 9, 2004	37.6	46.4 (5.9)	7.2	2.0	6.8
Election November 24, 2007	43.4	42.1 (5.5)	7.8	2.0	4.7
MORGAN POLL
December 5/6, 2007	49	36.5 (3.5)	7	1.5	6

Note: National Party results are in brackets

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP
	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	46.4	53.6
Election October 3, 1998^	51	49
Election November 10, 2001	49	51
Election October 9, 2004	47.3	52.7
Election November 24, 2007	52.9	47.1
MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2004 election
	%	%	%	%
Dec 5/6, 2007	58.5	41.5	58.5	41.5

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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