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Unemployment to increase / decrease

Record low unemployment levels has contributed to a large number of Australians (64%, up 8% since November 2006) saying there will be no change in the number of unemployed or that unemployment will fall in the coming 12 months.  One-quarter (26%, down 14%) of Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months, and 10% (up 6%) didn’t know.

Similarly, a large number of New Zealanders (65%, up 6% since November 2006) expect there will be no change in the number of unemployed or that unemployment will fall, while 31% (down 6%) expect unemployment to increase, and 4% (unchanged) didn’t know.

Job security

Four-in-five Australians (80%, down 1%) who work full or part-time say their present job is safe, while 18% (up 1%) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and 2% (unchanged) didn’t know.

In New Zealand, 83% (down 2% since November 2006) of workers believe their jobs are safe, while 13% (unchanged) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 4% (up 2%) didn’t know.

Finding a new job

In Australia, 72% (up 9%) of workers say that if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly.  This is the highest result Australia has recorded, surpassing 1988 when 69% of full-time and part-time workers said they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly.  Twenty-one per cent (down 11%) say it might take longer to find a new job and 7% (up 2%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or didn’t know.

Seventy-two per cent of New Zealand workers (up 2%) think they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly, while 21% (down 4%) believe it might take longer and 7% (up 2%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or didn’t know.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest annual Morgan Poll survey on attitude towards employment in Australia and New Zealand should serve as an important benchmark for the new Rudd Government, with interviewing in Australia conducted during election campaigning but prior to the November 0.25% interest rate rise.

“In particular, majorities in Australia (64%) and New Zealand (65%) are confident that unemployment will not rise in the next 12 months.  Job security is also high, with eight-in-ten (80%) Australian workers, and a slightly greater proportion (83%) of New Zealander workers, saying that their present job is safe.

“The same proportion (72%) of Australian and New Zealand full-time and part-time workers say that if they were to become unemployed, they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly.

“In the new year, Gallup International will be releasing comparable results from more than 50 countries.”

These findings come from a special Morgan Poll conducted in Australia and New Zealand on attitudes towards employment in the coming 12 months. 

In Australia, a cross-section of 1,362 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on October 4/5 & 11/12, 2007. 

In New Zealand, a cross-section of 957 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 12-25, 2007. 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

1. Unemployment

Respondents were first asked: “In the next 12 months, do you expect the number of unemployed in Australia (New Zealand) to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly, or fall a lot?”

One-quarter (26%, down 14%) of Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months, 17% (down 7%) expect unemployment to fall, while a large 47% (up 15%) believe there will be no change (10% didn’t know).

In New Zealand, 31% (down 6%) expect unemployment to increase, while 45% (up 7%) expect there will be no change and 20% (down 1%) expect it to fall (4% didn’t know).

Expect Unemployment to…	Increase	Fall	No change	Don’t know
	%	%	%	%
New Zealand:
Aug ‘91	88	6	6	*
Nov ‘91	76	11	13	*
Nov ‘92	52	25	23	*
Nov ‘93	38	33	29	*
Nov ‘98	68	14	18	*
Nov ‘99	32	31	37	*
Dec ‘00	33	30	37	*
Dec ‘01	36	27	37	*
Dec ‘02	37	31	32	*
Dec ‘03	35	28	37	*
Dec ‘04	29	29	42	*
Nov ‘05	44	19	37	*
Nov ‘06	37	21	38	4
Nov ‘07	31	20	45	4
Australia:
1975	64	21	15	*
1976	60	19	21	*
1977	64	20	16	*
1978	73	10	17	*
1979	69	10	21	*
1980	67	11	22	*
Dec ‘82	88	5	7	*
Oct ‘83	54	23	23	*
Nov ‘84	44	30	26	*
Nov ‘85	49	27	24	*
Nov ‘86	63	13	24	*
Dec ‘87	59	16	25	*
Nov ‘88	48	22	30	*
Nov ‘89	50	18	32	*
Nov ‘90	81	10	9	*
Aug ‘91	65	17	18	*
Nov ‘91	62	22	16	*
Jul ‘92	54	24	22	*
Nov ‘92	55	22	23	*
Nov ‘93	44	27	29	*
Nov ‘94	32	42	26	*
Nov ‘95	49	23	28	*
Jul ‘97	47	25	28	*
Nov ‘97	45	26	29	*
Nov ‘98	53	20	27	*
Nov ‘99	38	29	33	*
Dec ‘00	50	20	30	*
Dec ‘01	60	16	24	*
Dec ‘02	44	19	37	*
Dec ‘03	39	22	39	*
Dec ‘04	36	24	40	*
Nov ‘05	40	21	39	*
Nov ‘06	40	24	32	4
Oct ‘07	26	17	47	10

* “Don’t know” result included in “No change” Australia 1975-2005, New Zealand 1991-2005

2. Job Security in Australia and New Zealand

Those respondents who work full-time or part-time were then asked: “Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there's a chance you may become unemployed?”

Four-in-five Australians (80%, down 1%) who work full or part-time say their present job is safe, while 18% (up 1%) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and 2% (unchanged) don’t know.

In New Zealand, 83% (down 2% since November 2006) of workers believe their jobs are safe, while 13% (unchanged) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 4% (up 2%) don’t know.

Job Security	Present job safe	Chance of unemployment	Don't know
	%	%	%
New Zealand:
Aug ‘91	54	41	5
Nov ‘91	60	36	4
Nov ‘92	66	29	5
Nov ‘98	73	20	7
Nov ‘99	76	21	3
Dec ‘00	80	17	3
Dec ‘01	84	15	1
Dec ‘02	81	14	5
Dec ‘03	84	14	2
Dec ‘04	85	13	2
Nov ‘05	84	13	3
Nov ‘06	85	13	2
Nov ‘07	83	13	4
Australia:
1975	76	21	3
1976	78	17	5
1977	82	15	3
1978	79	19	2
1979	77	20	3
1980	73	23	4
Dec ‘82	72	25	3
Oct ‘83	79	18	3
Nov ‘84	82	17	1
Nov ‘85	79	18	3
Nov ‘86	80	17	3
Dec ‘87	80	18	2
Nov ‘88	81	18	1
Nov ‘89	82	17	1
Nov ‘90	70	28	2
Aug ‘91	70	28	2
Nov ‘91	69	27	4
Jul ‘92	69	29	2
Nov ‘92	65	32	3
Nov ‘93	73	25	2
Nov ‘94	74	22	4
Nov ‘95	74	23	3
Jul ‘97	73	24	3
Nov ‘97	77	21	2
Nov ‘98	81	16	3
Nov ‘99	74	25	1
Dec ‘00	75	20	5
Dec ‘01	75	22	3
Dec ‘02	79	20	1
Dec ‘03	78	20	2
Dec ’04	79	19	2
Nov ‘05	83	15	2
Nov ‘06	81	17	2
Oct ‘07	80	18	2

3. Finding a New Job If Unemployed

Full-time and part-time workers were then asked: “If you became unemployed, do you think you'd be able to find a new job fairly quickly — or do you think it might take longer?”

In Australia, 72% (up 9%) of workers say that if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly.  This is the highest result Australia has recorded, surpassing 1988 when 69% of full-time and part-time workers said they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly.  Twenty-one per cent (down 11%) say it might take longer to find a new job and 7% (up 2%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or don’t know.

Seventy-two percent of New Zealander workers (up 2%) say they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly, while 21% (down 4%) believe it might take longer and 7% (up 2%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or don’t know.

Finding a New Job if Unemployed	New job found quickly	May take longer	Wouldn't look / Don’t know
	%	%	%
New Zealand:
Aug ‘91	30	58	12
Nov ‘91	35	54	11
Nov ‘92	39	50	11
Nov ‘98	50	40	10
Nov ‘99	64	29	7
Dec ‘00	51	39	10
Dec ‘01	58	31	11
Dec ‘02	67	26	7
Dec ‘03	66	28	6
Dec ‘04	69	24	7
Nov ‘05	71	23	6
Nov ‘06	70	25	5
Nov ‘07	72	21	7*
Australia:
1975	57	33	10
1976	57	33	10
1977	55	35	10
1978	50	41	9
1979	54	36	10
1980	50	39	11
Dec ‘82	44	46	10
Oct ‘83	51	41	8
Nov ‘84	61	33	6
Nov ‘85	58	34	8
Nov ‘86	61	30	9
Dec ‘87	65	30	5
Nov ‘88	69	26	5
Nov ‘89	68	26	6
Nov ‘90	49	45	6
Aug ‘91	39	53	8
Nov ‘91	39	53	8
Jul ‘92	38	53	9
Nov ‘92	39	54	7
Nov ‘93	50	43	7
Nov ‘94	60	33	7
Nov ‘95	58	32	10
Jul ‘97	52	42	6
Nov ‘97	58	36	6
Nov ‘98	55	38	7
Nov ‘99	63	30	7
Dec ‘00	59	33	8
Dec ‘01	54	39	7
Dec ‘02	66	29	5
Dec ‘03	64	33	3
Dec ‘04	67	28	5
Nov ‘05	62	34	4
Nov ‘06	63	32	5
Oct ‘07	72	21	7**

* Includes “Don’t know” result of 3%

** Includes “Don’t know” result of 3%

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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