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NEWS : Morgan Poll :

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A majority of Australians & New Zealanders expect a "Better Year" for 2008

Finding No. 4258 - In Australia, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 609 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone on October 17/18, 2007.
In New Zealand, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 958 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone between November 12-25, 2007.: December 14, 2007

Majorities of Australians, 53% (up 6%) and New Zealanders, 57% (down 8%) believe 2008 will be a ‘better year’ than 2007.

In addition 10% (down 4%) of Australians and 16% (unchanged) of New Zealanders think 2008 will be the same as 2007, 23% (down 5%) of Australians and 19% (up 6%) of New Zealanders think 2008 will be worse and 14% of Australians and 8% of New Zealamders couldn’t say according to a recent Morgan Poll.

In 2007 both Australia & New Zealand had a low number of ‘Industrial Disputes.’ Expectations for 2008 are at least the same or better:

A majority of Australians (52%, up 22%) and a large minority of New Zealanders (49%, up 2%) expect the same number of ‘industrial disputes’ in 2008 as in 2007.

Significantly fewer Australians than a year ago (27%, down 29%) expect ‘more strikes and industrial disputes’ in 2008, as do New Zealanders (38%, down 5%). While 7% (up 2%) of New Zealanders and 5% (down 4%) of Australians ‘expect strikes and industrial disputes to decrease’in 2008.

Both Australia & New Zealand had good economies in 2007. Expectations for 2008 are for another year of economic prosperity:

A large majority of New Zealanders (71%) and a majority of Australians (61%) expect ‘a year of economic prosperity’ in 2008 or the same as 2007.

However there are still a significant minority of Australians, (30%, down 1%) and New Zealanders (24%, up 11%) who expect a ‘year of economic difficulty’ in 2008, while 8% of Australians and 5% of New Zealanders couldn’t say.

2007 was a troubled year Internationally, will 2008 be a ‘troubled or peaceful’ year Internationally? Australians & New Zealanders share their concerns expecting the same or worse:

Fifty-six percent (up 11%) of Australians and 49% (unchanged) of New Zealanders expect 2008 to be the same internationally as 2007, while in addition 35% (down 9%) of Australians and 39% (down 1%) of New Zealanders expect 2008 to be ‘a troubled year with much international discord.’

Only 5% of Australians (down 2%) and 8% of New Zealanders (up 1%) expect 2008 to be a peaceful year ‘more or less free of international dispute’.

The above findings were obtained in conjunction with the annual Morgan Poll survey of Employment Expectations in Australia and New Zealand and also the annual Morgan Poll survey of Next Generation Expectations for Australia and New Zealand.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special Morgan Poll shows Australians and New Zealanders are concerned that internationally 2008 will be as troubled as this year, or even worse. However they are expecting the ‘good economic times’ to continue.

“In Australia, the introduction of the controversial Work Choices legislation produced a large fall in the number of Australians in October expecting industrial disputes to rise in 2008, to less than half the 2006 results. Down to 27% from 56% a year ago - indeed expectations were at an equal record low as found in 1993.

“Before the election of the Rudd Labor Government in Australia, majorities of Australians, 53% (up 6%) and New Zealander, 57% (down 8%,), believed 2008 would be a ‘better year’ than 2007; in addition 10% (down 4%) of Australians and 16% (unchanged) of New Zealanders think 2008 would be the same as 2007.

“These latest Morgan Poll results are an important benchmark for the Australian Rudd Labor Government as they seek to roll back parts of the Work Choices legislation.Changes in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating will give the Government the first indication about how Australians’ feel about their economic future.”

“In the New Year, Gallup International will be releasing comparable results from more than 50 countries.”

In Australia, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 609 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone on October 17/18, 2007.

In New Zealand, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 958 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone between November 12-25, 2007.

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

1. Next Year Internationally a Peaceful or Troubled Year?

Respondents were then asked: “Do you think that 2008 will be a peaceful year more or less free of international dispute, a troubled year with much international discord, or remain the same?”

Far more Australians (35%) and New Zealanders (39%) expect 2008 to be a troubled year than a peaceful year, (5%) and (8%) respectively. The largest number of respondents though, 49% of New Zealanders and a majority of Australians (56%) expect 2008 to be the same.

	Expect a Troubled Year																			2008 Internationally will be: Troubled Same Peaceful Don’t Know
	‘89	‘90	‘91	‘92	‘93	‘94	‘95	‘96	‘97	‘98	‘99	‘00	‘01	‘02	‘03	‘04	‘05	‘06	‘07	2008	2008	2008	2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australia Troubled Same^ Don’t Know Peaceful	59 23 ^ 18	28 51 ^ 21	61 33 ^ 6	33 53 ^ 14	41 49 ^ 10	29 58 ^ 13	29 59 ^ 12	28 60 ^ 12	* * * *	35 58 ^ 7	43 47 ^ 10	40 50 ^ 10	39 53 ^ 8	53 37 ^ 10	76 22 ^ 2	45 49 ^ 6	41 53 ^ 6	50 46 ^ 4	44 45 4 7	35	56	5	4
New Zealand	*	*	*	33	40	26	28	*	*	*	49	35	27	54	68	47	47	42	40#	39	49	8	4

* Not surveyed

^ Between 1989 — 2006, Same & Don’t Know were compiled together.

# New Zealand expectations for 2007 are: Troubled — 40%; Same — 49%; Peaceful — 7%; Don’t Know — 4%.

2. Next Year - Strikes and Industrial Disputes to Increase or Decrease

Respondents were finally asked: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that in 2008, strikes and industrial disputes in this country will increase, decrease, or remain the same?”

Far more New Zealanders (38%) than Australians (27%) expect more strikes and industrial disputes in 2008, a reversal of expectations for 2007. More Australians than New Zealanders (52% cf. 49%) expect the same and only 5% of Australians and 7% of New Zealanders expect strikes and industrial disputes to decrease.

	Expect an increase in Strikes and Industrial Disputes																			Increase	Same	Decrease	Don’t Know
	‘89	‘90	‘91	‘92	‘93	‘94	‘95	‘96	‘97	‘98	‘99	‘00	‘01	‘02	‘03	‘04	‘05	‘06	‘07	2008	2008	2008	2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australia Increase Same^ Don’t Know Decrease	33 55 ^ 12	36 47 ^ 17	44 45 ^ 11	32 49 ^ 19	57 32 ^ 11	27 60 ^ 13	43 48 ^ 9	43 48 ^ 9	* * * *	43 51 ^ 6	33 53 ^ 14	43 49 ^ 8	35 56 ^ 9	46 48 ^ 6	40 56 ^ 4	31 64 ^ 5	41 54 ^ 5	62 31 ^ 7	56 30 5 9	27	52	5	16
New Zealand	*	*	*	47	43	27	31	*	*	*	31	25	38	51	43	28	24	36	43#	38	49	7	6

* Not surveyed

^ Between 1989 — 2006, Same & Don’t Know were compiled together.

# New Zealand expectations for 2007 are: Increase — 43%; Same — 47%; Decrease — 5%; Don’t Know — 5%.

3. Next Year — Better or Worse?

Respondents were asked: “As far as you're concerned, do you think next year will be better or worse than this year?”

Fifty-three per cent of Australians believe 2008 will be a better year than 2007, 23% think it will be worse and 10% think it will be the same.

New Zealanders are slightly more optimistic about 2008 with 57% expecting a better year, 19% expecting worse and 16% expecting the same.

	Expect a Better Year in…																			Better	Same	Worse	Don’t Know
	‘89	‘90	‘91	‘92	‘93	‘94	‘95	‘96	‘97	‘98	‘99	‘00	‘01	‘02	‘03	'04	‘05	‘06	‘07	2008	2008	2008	2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australia Better Same^ Don’t Know Worse	47 22 ^ 31	43 22 ^ 35	33 18 ^ 49	54 20 ^ 26	42 22 ^ 36	60 22 ^ 18	65 19 ^ 16	53 29 ^ 18	* * * *	50 28 ^ 22	55 25 ^ 20	49 30 ^ 21	46 33 ^ 21	53 21 ^ 26	51 16 ^ 33	68 17 ^ 15	61 22 ^ 17	49 22 ^ 29	47 14 11 28	53	10	23	14
New Zealand	*	56	41	33	58	59	61	*	*	*	62	56	62	65	63	59	60	59	65#	57	16	19	8

* Not surveyed

^ Between 1989 — 2006, Same & Don’t Know were compiled together.

# New Zealand expectations for 2007 are: Better — 65%; Same — 16%; Worse — 13%; Don’t Know — 6%.

4. Economic Prosperity or Economic Difficulty Next Year?

Respondents were then asked: “Compared with this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty, or about the same?”

Majorities of New Zealanders (53%) and the largest number of Australians (45%) expect 2008 to be the same economically. Thirty per cent of Australians and 24% of New Zealanders expect economic difficulty and only 16% of Australians and 18% of New Zealanders expect economic prosperity.

	Economic Expectations for Prosperity or Difficulty
	2004		2005		2006		2007*		2008
	Prosperity	Difficulty	Prosperity	Difficulty	Prosperity	Difficulty	Prosperity	Difficulty	Prosperity	Same	Difficulty	Don’t Know
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australia	21	23	23	18	16	29	11	31	16	45	30	9
New Zealand	19	14	17	12	12	26	16	13	18	53	24	5

* Full 2007 Expectation figures for Economic Prosperity or Difficulty are:

Australia: Prosperity — 11%; Difficulty — 31%; Same — 53%; Don’t Know — 5%

New Zealand: Prosperity — 16%; Difficulty — 13%; Same — 68%; Don’t Know — 3%.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4