Australian Consumer Confidence Up 6.5 Points To 123.9
| Article No. 601 -
January 13, 2007 |
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is up 6.5 points to 123.9 in its first rating of 2007. This month’s rating of 123.9 is 12.6 points above the January average of 111.3.
The main driver behind the increase was the short-term expectations of the Australian economy — expectations of good economic conditions in Australia over the coming year are up 5% to 44%, while expectations of bad economic conditions over the coming year are down 3% to 21%.
The number of Australians expecting good economic times over the next five years is up 4% to 37% compared to 17% (down 6%) of Australians who expect bad economic times over the next five years.
Looking ahead, 41% (unchanged) expect to be better off financially this time next year, while 16% (up 3%) expect to be worse off.
Currently, 36% (unchanged) say their personal financial situation is better now than it was last year, while 25% (up 1%) say they are now worse off.
Fifty-seven per cent (up 12%) of Australians consider now a good time to buy major household items, whilst 17% (down 6%) say it is a bad time.
Gary Morgan says:
“The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating rose for the second consecutive month after it fell significantly following the November interest rate hike.
“With the price of fuel being one of the main drivers behind consumer confidence, the latest considerable fall in the price of oil is likely to push consumer confidence even higher. Unless, of course, the RBA raises interest rates in the near future.”
This month’s Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,077 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over on the weekend of January 6/7.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Yearly
Average |
|
1973 |
|
|
119.2 |
|
|
117.0 |
|
|
108.4 |
|
|
103.8 |
112.1 |
|
1974 |
|
|
103.2 |
|
|
95.6 |
|
|
90.6 |
|
|
92.2 |
95.4 |
|
1975 |
|
|
114.0 |
|
|
104.2 |
|
|
100.8 |
|
|
103.0 |
105.5 |
|
1976 |
113.6 |
|
107.0 |
110.2 |
|
107.0 |
105.6 |
|
108.0 |
108.8 |
101.2 |
|
107.7 |
|
1977 |
104.2 |
|
98.6 |
101.6 |
|
103.8 |
99.4 |
|
105.0 |
104.4 |
109.4 |
|
103.3 |
|
1978 |
119.2 |
|
114.8 |
110.8 |
|
109.6 |
101.6 |
|
91.2 |
104.4 |
103.6 |
|
106.9 |
|
1979 |
110.2 |
|
106.2 |
109.4 |
|
92.6 |
90.2 |
|
99.4 |
97.6 |
98.8 |
|
100.6 |
|
1980 |
98.8 |
|
100.8 |
97.4 |
|
101.6 |
98.2 |
|
104.4 |
109.8 |
106.4 |
|
102.2 |
|
1981 |
113.4 |
|
111.8 |
101.8 |
|
100.8 |
95.0 |
|
92.4 |
98.2 |
98.0 |
|
101.4 |
|
1982 |
92.4 |
|
91.8 |
93.6 |
|
92.2 |
80.4 |
|
84.6 |
81.2 |
75.2 |
|
86.4 |
|
1983 |
87.8 |
|
97.4 |
96.0 |
|
95.4 |
98.2 |
|
100.6 |
106.4 |
113.2 |
|
99.4 |
|
1984 |
124.6 |
|
120.8 |
120.8 |
|
115.6 |
116.6 |
|
118.2 |
117.8 |
114.6 |
|
118.6 |
|
1985 |
114.8 |
|
110.2 |
99.4 |
|
98.0 |
100.8 |
|
106.8 |
107.8 |
94.8 |
|
104.1 |
|
1986 |
105.4 |
|
103.8 |
94.6 |
94.8 |
91.6 |
79.8 |
79.8 |
78.8 |
89.8 |
85.6 |
88.8 |
90.3 |
|
1987 |
90.4 |
88.0 |
86.8 |
90.8 |
91.8 |
93.4 |
98.6 |
96.4 |
94.8 |
104.0 |
87.2 |
93.0 |
92.9 |
|
1988 |
100.4 |
98.8 |
103.6 |
106.2 |
104.0 |
104.0 |
107.6 |
108.2 |
112.4 |
108.8 |
104.2 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
|
1989 |
105.0 |
94.6 |
88.4 |
88.4 |
87.4 |
72.8 |
73.0 |
78.8 |
82.0 |
79.0 |
81.0 |
80.0 |
84.2 |
|
1990 |
101.6 |
95.6 |
83.4 |
88.3 |
84.7 |
83.1 |
79.6 |
83.9 |
75.6 |
71.4 |
73.1 |
71.3 |
82.6 |
|
1991 |
78.5 |
85.4 |
85.0 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
88.6 |
98.1 |
95.2 |
93.3 |
95.8 |
91.1 |
83.0 |
89.1 |
|
1992 |
93.6 |
95.9 |
96.2 |
105.4 |
101.6 |
97.7 |
95.4 |
96.9 |
96.8 |
101.2 |
93.6 |
92.9 |
97.3 |
|
1993 |
100.8 |
100.4 |
105.9 |
102.3 |
102.2 |
96.2 |
96.6 |
100.8 |
90.2 |
103.5 |
111.9 |
108.5 |
101.6 |
|
1994 |
120.5 |
127.5 |
125.7 |
127.7 |
125.2 |
128.0 |
127.6 |
123.8 |
123.6 |
124.6 |
118.1 |
118.0 |
124.2 |
|
1995 |
112.3 |
112.4 |
113.9 |
114.7 |
112.0 |
112.4 |
110.2 |
115.5 |
111.7 |
116.2 |
114.3 |
111.9 |
113.1 |
|
1996 |
116.7 |
119.1 |
123.7 |
121.5 |
118.8 |
117.8 |
112.3 |
114.4 |
113.2 |
111.3 |
113.4 |
113.2 |
116.3 |
|
1997 |
119.2 |
115.1 |
116.2 |
112.5 |
114.2 |
115.5 |
110.7 |
111.7 |
112.4 |
112.8 |
111.6 |
110.6 |
113.5 |
|
1998 |
117.8 |
116.0 |
114.9 |
110.2 |
114.4 |
109.8 |
107.6 |
111.1 |
111.0 |
113.9 |
114.2 |
114.7 |
112.8 |
|
1999 |
122.1 |
121.8 |
122.5 |
119.6 |
122.5 |
122.2 |
118.2 |
122.8 |
122.3 |
119.6 |
122.8 |
122.2 |
121.6 |
|
2000 |
122.3 |
119.9 |
112.9 |
116.6 |
112.0 |
108.7 |
114.8 |
119.1 |
115.8 |
115.6 |
110.3 |
112.3 |
115.0 |
|
2001 |
119.9 |
109.5 |
106.2 |
103.6 |
107.4 |
108.6 |
115.3 |
116.4 |
120.9* |
106.8 |
109.4 |
113.3 |
111.4 |
|
2002 |
124.8 |
123.0 |
122.3 |
123.2 |
124.0 |
116.4 |
123.4 |
119.9 |
122.1 |
117.2 |
114.0 |
109.6 |
120.0 |
|
2003 |
122.5 |
113.4 |
109.9 |
120.8 |
127.0 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
121.2 |
124.2 |
120.4 |
120.9 |
| 2004 |
126.0 |
126.8 |
130.4 |
124.4 |
125.0 |
125.6 |
128.9 |
127.6 |
126 |
128.9 |
124.8 |
125.5 |
126.7 |
| 2005 |
133.2 |
132.0 |
121.5 |
119.4 |
119.5 |
118.8 |
116.8 |
120.6 |
114.3 |
105.4 |
110.6 |
117.7 |
119.2 |
| 2006 |
124.3 |
124.5 |
124.4 |
120.1 |
106.8 |
115.1 |
118.1 |
103.7^ |
108.6 |
115.8 |
111.5 |
117.4 |
115.9 |
| 2007 |
123.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
123.9 |
|
|
|
Monthly
Average |
111.3 |
111 |
108.6 |
107.7 |
108.7 |
105.4 |
104.6 |
108.3 |
104.7 |
106.4 |
104.6 |
105.2 |
106.9 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3.
^ 84 of the 107 Western Australian interviews were conducted by telephone on August 9/10 due to a recent Southern WA Cyclone |
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,141 |
1,250 |
1,181 |
1,074 |
1,092 |
1,070 |
1,038 |
1,077 |
1,033 |
1,114 |
1,003 |
1,083 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
36 |
36 |
35 |
32 |
34 |
32 |
31 |
36 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
34 |
|
|
worse off |
21 |
21 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
24 |
30 |
27 |
30 |
32 |
30 |
27 |
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
15 |
15 |
11 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
1 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
47 |
46 |
44 |
43 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
40 |
39 |
39 |
35 |
40 |
|
|
worse off |
11 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
16 |
21 |
26 |
20 |
17 |
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
36 |
35 |
29 |
28 |
27 |
25 |
21 |
24 |
18 |
13 |
15 |
23 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
52 |
50 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
35 |
35 |
42 |
36 |
28 |
32 |
41 |
|
|
bad times |
14 |
15 |
23 |
26 |
24 |
25 |
27 |
23 |
28 |
39 |
32 |
23 |
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
38 |
35 |
16 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
19 |
8 |
-11 |
- |
18 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
41 |
41 |
36 |
33 |
33 |
30 |
30 |
32 |
30 |
25 |
28 |
31 |
|
|
bad times |
14 |
13 |
16 |
22 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
24 |
25 |
29 |
26 |
26 |
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
27 |
28 |
20 |
11 |
12 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
-4 |
2 |
5 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
61 |
58 |
50 |
53 |
55 |
55 |
61 |
57 |
52 |
50 |
53 |
53 |
|
|
bad time to buy |
11 |
11 |
18 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
21 |
18 |
18 |
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
50 |
47 |
32 |
39 |
41 |
43 |
47 |
43 |
38 |
29 |
35 |
35 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
133.2 |
132.0 |
121.5 |
119.4 |
119.5 |
118.8 |
116.8 |
120.6 |
114.3 |
105.4 |
110.6 |
117.7 |
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2006 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,062 |
1,163 |
1,125 |
1,165 |
1,149 |
1,144 |
1,215 |
1,132 |
1,085 |
1,069 |
1,161 |
1,208 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
31 |
35 |
34 |
34 |
30 |
32 |
32 |
30 |
32 |
32 |
35 |
36 |
|
|
worse off |
26 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
35 |
30 |
31 |
34 |
32 |
27 |
27 |
24 |
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
5 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
-5 |
2 |
1 |
-4 |
0 |
5 |
8 |
12 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
42 |
44 |
45 |
43 |
37 |
41 |
40 |
35 |
38 |
39 |
39 |
41 |
|
|
worse off |
14 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
22 |
19 |
19 |
26 |
21 |
16 |
19 |
13 |
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
28 |
30 |
31 |
27 |
15 |
22 |
21 |
9 |
17 |
23 |
20 |
28 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
41 |
44 |
42 |
41 |
32 |
38 |
42 |
29 |
34 |
38 |
33 |
39 |
|
|
bad times |
21 |
21 |
20 |
25 |
34 |
26 |
25 |
38 |
32 |
26 |
31 |
24 |
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
20 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
-2 |
12 |
17 |
-9 |
2 |
12 |
2 |
15 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
36 |
35 |
34 |
34 |
30 |
29 |
33 |
29 |
30 |
32 |
28 |
33 |
|
|
bad times |
20 |
20 |
19 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
23 |
27 |
28 |
24 |
28 |
23 |
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
16 |
15 |
15 |
11 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
0 |
10 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
64 |
59 |
58 |
55 |
45 |
51 |
57 |
46 |
45 |
50 |
49 |
45 |
|
|
bad time to buy |
12 |
14 |
13 |
15 |
24 |
17 |
16 |
27 |
23 |
19 |
22 |
23 |
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
52 |
45 |
45 |
40 |
21 |
34 |
41 |
19 |
22 |
31 |
27 |
22 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
124.3 |
124.5 |
124.4 |
120.1 |
106.8 |
115.1 |
118.1 |
103.7 |
108.6 |
115.8 |
111.5 |
117.4 |
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,077 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
worse off |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
worse off |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad times |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad times |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
57 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad time to buy |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
123.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
