Consumer Confidence Up Sharply In October
| Article No. 690 -
October 12, 2007 |
The October Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 126.2, up a significant 8 points from September and 2.8 points above the 2007 average of 123.4.
The number of Australians (40%, up 7%) who say their personal financial situation is better now than it was last year has returned to the level it was before a large fall in September after the interest rate rise, while the number (21%, down 6%) who say they are now worse off has fallen significantly.
Similarly, more Australians (45%, up 6%) expect to be better off financially this time next year, while 12% (down 3%) expect to be worse off.
Australians’ expectations for the economy have also risen: 44% (up 4%) expect good economic conditions in Australia over the coming year, while the number who expect bad economic conditions over the coming year has fallen dramatically (16%, down 7%).
The number of Australians expecting good economic times over the next five years is 37% (up 3%) compared to 16% (down 4%) of Australians who expect bad economic times over the next five years.
For the first time in 2007, the number (49%, down 1%) of Australians who consider now a good time to buy major household items has dropped below 50%; 19% (down 1%) say now is a bad time to buy major household items.
Gary Morgan says:
“After a sharp fall in the September Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating — which was the first following the most recent interest rate hike — confidence has returned to about where it was prior to the rate rise.
“The main factor in this month’s rise in confidence is that people’s perceptions of both the past and future have increased now that they’ve had time to readjust to the latest interest rate rise. The number of Australians who say their personal financial situation is better now than it was last year is up 7% to 40%, while the number who expect to be better off financially this time next year is up 6% to 45%.
“The number of Australians who say ‘now is a good time to buy major household items’ is down 9% from 58% to 49% since the July Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating.”
This month’s Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,084 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over on the weekend of October 6/7, 2007.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office + 61 3 9224 5213 Mobile + 61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office + 61 3 9224 5215 Mobile + 61 411 129 093
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Yearly
Average |
|
1973 |
|
|
119.2 |
|
|
117.0 |
|
|
108.4 |
|
|
103.8 |
112.1 |
|
1974 |
|
|
103.2 |
|
|
95.6 |
|
|
90.6 |
|
|
92.2 |
95.4 |
|
1975 |
|
|
114.0 |
|
|
104.2 |
|
|
100.8 |
|
|
103.0 |
105.5 |
|
1976 |
113.6 |
|
107.0 |
110.2 |
|
107.0 |
105.6 |
|
108.0 |
108.8 |
101.2 |
|
107.7 |
|
1977 |
104.2 |
|
98.6 |
101.6 |
|
103.8 |
99.4 |
|
105.0 |
104.4 |
109.4 |
|
103.3 |
|
1978 |
119.2 |
|
114.8 |
110.8 |
|
109.6 |
101.6 |
|
91.2 |
104.4 |
103.6 |
|
106.9 |
|
1979 |
110.2 |
|
106.2 |
109.4 |
|
92.6 |
90.2 |
|
99.4 |
97.6 |
98.8 |
|
100.6 |
|
1980 |
98.8 |
|
100.8 |
97.4 |
|
101.6 |
98.2 |
|
104.4 |
109.8 |
106.4 |
|
102.2 |
|
1981 |
113.4 |
|
111.8 |
101.8 |
|
100.8 |
95.0 |
|
92.4 |
98.2 |
98.0 |
|
101.4 |
|
1982 |
92.4 |
|
91.8 |
93.6 |
|
92.2 |
80.4 |
|
84.6 |
81.2 |
75.2 |
|
86.4 |
|
1983 |
87.8 |
|
97.4 |
96.0 |
|
95.4 |
98.2 |
|
100.6 |
106.4 |
113.2 |
|
99.4 |
|
1984 |
124.6 |
|
120.8 |
120.8 |
|
115.6 |
116.6 |
|
118.2 |
117.8 |
114.6 |
|
118.6 |
|
1985 |
114.8 |
|
110.2 |
99.4 |
|
98.0 |
100.8 |
|
106.8 |
107.8 |
94.8 |
|
104.1 |
|
1986 |
105.4 |
|
103.8 |
94.6 |
94.8 |
91.6 |
79.8 |
79.8 |
78.8 |
89.8 |
85.6 |
88.8 |
90.3 |
|
1987 |
90.4 |
88.0 |
86.8 |
90.8 |
91.8 |
93.4 |
98.6 |
96.4 |
94.8 |
104.0 |
87.2 |
93.0 |
92.9 |
|
1988 |
100.4 |
98.8 |
103.6 |
106.2 |
104.0 |
104.0 |
107.6 |
108.2 |
112.4 |
108.8 |
104.2 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
|
1989 |
105.0 |
94.6 |
88.4 |
88.4 |
87.4 |
72.8 |
73.0 |
78.8 |
82.0 |
79.0 |
81.0 |
80.0 |
84.2 |
|
1990 |
101.6 |
95.6 |
83.4 |
88.3 |
84.7 |
83.1 |
79.6 |
83.9 |
75.6 |
71.4 |
73.1 |
71.3 |
82.6 |
|
1991 |
78.5 |
85.4 |
85.0 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
88.6 |
98.1 |
95.2 |
93.3 |
95.8 |
91.1 |
83.0 |
89.1 |
|
1992 |
93.6 |
95.9 |
96.2 |
105.4 |
101.6 |
97.7 |
95.4 |
96.9 |
96.8 |
101.2 |
93.6 |
92.9 |
97.3 |
|
1993 |
100.8 |
100.4 |
105.9 |
102.3 |
102.2 |
96.2 |
96.6 |
100.8 |
90.2 |
103.5 |
111.9 |
108.5 |
101.6 |
|
1994 |
120.5 |
127.5 |
125.7 |
127.7 |
125.2 |
128.0 |
127.6 |
123.8 |
123.6 |
124.6 |
118.1 |
118.0 |
124.2 |
|
1995 |
112.3 |
112.4 |
113.9 |
114.7 |
112.0 |
112.4 |
110.2 |
115.5 |
111.7 |
116.2 |
114.3 |
111.9 |
113.1 |
|
1996 |
116.7 |
119.1 |
123.7 |
121.5 |
118.8 |
117.8 |
112.3 |
114.4 |
113.2 |
111.3 |
113.4 |
113.2 |
116.3 |
|
1997 |
119.2 |
115.1 |
116.2 |
112.5 |
114.2 |
115.5 |
110.7 |
111.7 |
112.4 |
112.8 |
111.6 |
110.6 |
113.5 |
|
1998 |
117.8 |
116.0 |
114.9 |
110.2 |
114.4 |
109.8 |
107.6 |
111.1 |
111.0 |
113.9 |
114.2 |
114.7 |
112.8 |
|
1999 |
122.1 |
121.8 |
122.5 |
119.6 |
122.5 |
122.2 |
118.2 |
122.8 |
122.3 |
119.6 |
122.8 |
122.2 |
121.6 |
|
2000 |
122.3 |
119.9 |
112.9 |
116.6 |
112.0 |
108.7 |
114.8 |
119.1 |
115.8 |
115.6 |
110.3 |
112.3 |
115.0 |
|
2001 |
119.9 |
109.5 |
106.2 |
103.6 |
107.4 |
108.6 |
115.3 |
116.4 |
120.9* |
106.8 |
109.4 |
113.3 |
111.4 |
|
2002 |
124.8 |
123.0 |
122.3 |
123.2 |
124.0 |
116.4 |
123.4 |
119.9 |
122.1 |
117.2 |
114.0 |
109.6 |
120.0 |
|
2003 |
122.5 |
113.4 |
109.9 |
120.8 |
127.0 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
121.2 |
124.2 |
120.4 |
120.9 |
| 2004 |
126.0 |
126.8 |
130.4 |
124.4 |
125.0 |
125.6 |
128.9 |
127.6 |
126 |
128.9 |
124.8 |
125.5 |
126.7 |
| 2005 |
133.2 |
132.0 |
121.5 |
119.4 |
119.5 |
118.8 |
116.8 |
120.6 |
114.3 |
105.4 |
110.6 |
117.7 |
119.2 |
| 2006 |
124.3 |
124.5 |
124.4 |
120.1 |
106.8 |
115.1 |
118.1 |
103.7^ |
108.6 |
115.8 |
111.5 |
117.4 |
115.9 |
| 2007 |
123.9 |
123.8 |
120.7 |
124.3 |
122.5 |
122.3 |
126.8 |
125.2 |
118.2 |
126.2 |
|
|
123.4 |
|
|
|
Monthly
Average |
111.3 |
111.6 |
109.0 |
108.2 |
109.3 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
108.8 |
105.1 |
107.0 |
104.6 |
105.2 |
106.9 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3.
^ 84 of the 107 Western Australian interviews were conducted by telephone on August 9/10 due to a recent Southern WA Cyclone |
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,141 |
1,250 |
1,181 |
1,074 |
1,092 |
1,070 |
1,038 |
1,077 |
1,033 |
1,114 |
1,003 |
1,083 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
36 |
36 |
35 |
32 |
34 |
32 |
31 |
36 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
34 |
|
|
worse off |
21 |
21 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
24 |
30 |
27 |
30 |
32 |
30 |
27 |
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
15 |
15 |
11 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
1 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
47 |
46 |
44 |
43 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
40 |
39 |
39 |
35 |
40 |
|
|
worse off |
11 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
16 |
21 |
26 |
20 |
17 |
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
36 |
35 |
29 |
28 |
27 |
25 |
21 |
24 |
18 |
13 |
15 |
23 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
52 |
50 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
35 |
35 |
42 |
36 |
28 |
32 |
41 |
|
|
bad times |
14 |
15 |
23 |
26 |
24 |
25 |
27 |
23 |
28 |
39 |
32 |
23 |
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
38 |
35 |
16 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
19 |
8 |
-11 |
- |
18 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
41 |
41 |
36 |
33 |
33 |
30 |
30 |
32 |
30 |
25 |
28 |
31 |
|
|
bad times |
14 |
13 |
16 |
22 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
24 |
25 |
29 |
26 |
26 |
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
27 |
28 |
20 |
11 |
12 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
-4 |
2 |
5 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
61 |
58 |
50 |
53 |
55 |
55 |
61 |
57 |
52 |
50 |
53 |
53 |
|
|
bad time to buy |
11 |
11 |
18 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
21 |
18 |
18 |
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
50 |
47 |
32 |
39 |
41 |
43 |
47 |
43 |
38 |
29 |
35 |
35 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
133.2 |
132.0 |
121.5 |
119.4 |
119.5 |
118.8 |
116.8 |
120.6 |
114.3 |
105.4 |
110.6 |
117.7 |
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2006 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,062 |
1,163 |
1,125 |
1,165 |
1,149 |
1,144 |
1,215 |
1,132 |
1,085 |
1,069 |
1,161 |
1,208 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
31 |
35 |
34 |
34 |
30 |
32 |
32 |
30 |
32 |
32 |
35 |
36 |
|
|
worse off |
26 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
35 |
30 |
31 |
34 |
32 |
27 |
27 |
24 |
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
5 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
-5 |
2 |
1 |
-4 |
0 |
5 |
8 |
12 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
42 |
44 |
45 |
43 |
37 |
41 |
40 |
35 |
38 |
39 |
39 |
41 |
|
|
worse off |
14 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
22 |
19 |
19 |
26 |
21 |
16 |
19 |
13 |
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
28 |
30 |
31 |
27 |
15 |
22 |
21 |
9 |
17 |
23 |
20 |
28 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
41 |
44 |
42 |
41 |
32 |
38 |
42 |
29 |
34 |
38 |
33 |
39 |
|
|
bad times |
21 |
21 |
20 |
25 |
34 |
26 |
25 |
38 |
32 |
26 |
31 |
24 |
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
20 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
-2 |
12 |
17 |
-9 |
2 |
12 |
2 |
15 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
36 |
35 |
34 |
34 |
30 |
29 |
33 |
29 |
30 |
32 |
28 |
33 |
|
|
bad times |
20 |
20 |
19 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
23 |
27 |
28 |
24 |
28 |
23 |
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
16 |
15 |
15 |
11 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
0 |
10 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
64 |
59 |
58 |
55 |
45 |
51 |
57 |
46 |
45 |
50 |
49 |
45 |
|
|
bad time to buy |
12 |
14 |
13 |
15 |
24 |
17 |
16 |
27 |
23 |
19 |
22 |
23 |
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
52 |
45 |
45 |
40 |
21 |
34 |
41 |
19 |
22 |
31 |
27 |
22 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
124.3 |
124.5 |
124.4 |
120.1 |
106.8 |
115.1 |
118.1 |
103.7 |
108.6 |
115.8 |
111.5 |
117.4 |
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,077 |
1,251 |
1,115 |
1,150 |
1,215 |
1,016 |
937 |
929 |
1,053 |
1,084 |
|
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
36 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
34 |
34 |
37 |
40 |
33 |
40 |
|
|
|
|
worse off |
25 |
26 |
26 |
24 |
27 |
25 |
27 |
23 |
27 |
21 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
11 |
8 |
9 |
12 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
17 |
6 |
19 |
|
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
41 |
46 |
39 |
42 |
41 |
39 |
44 |
44 |
39 |
45 |
|
|
|
|
worse off |
16 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
15 |
12 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
25 |
31 |
24 |
29 |
27 |
23 |
30 |
31 |
24 |
33 |
|
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
44 |
44 |
41 |
43 |
46 |
45 |
48 |
43 |
40 |
44 |
|
|
|
|
bad times |
21 |
21 |
21 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
20 |
23 |
16 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
23 |
23 |
20 |
24 |
27 |
26 |
31 |
23 |
17 |
28 |
|
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
37 |
37 |
36 |
37 |
35 |
34 |
38 |
38 |
34 |
37 |
|
|
|
|
bad times |
17 |
20 |
21 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
16 |
16 |
20 |
16 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
20 |
17 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
15 |
22 |
22 |
14 |
21 |
|
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
57 |
56 |
52 |
53 |
52 |
54 |
58 |
51 |
50 |
49 |
|
|
|
|
bad time to buy |
17 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
40 |
40 |
36 |
38 |
35 |
38 |
41 |
33 |
30 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
123.9 |
123.8 |
120.7 |
124.3 |
122.5 |
122.3 |
126.8 |
125.2 |
118.3 |
126.2 |
|
|
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
