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The mid-October Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is up 12 points to 128 — the largest fortnightly movement since confidence fell 12 points in early February 2006.  This period’s result is 2.8 points above the 2007 average of 125.2 and 3.7 points above the October average of 124.3.

Forty-five per cent (up 8%) of New Zealanders expect good times financially over the next 12 months compared to 26% (down 10%) who think there will be bad times.

Forty-three per cent (up 6%) of New Zealanders say they and their family are better off financially now than they were at this time last year, while 24% (down 5%) think they are now worse off. 

Looking ahead, a majority of New Zealanders aged 14 and above (54%, up 6%) believe they and their family will be better off financially this time next year, while 16% (down 5%) think they will be worse off. 

More New Zealanders (48%, up 2%) think the country as a whole will enjoy continuous good times over the next five years compared to those who think there will be bad times (19%, down 5%). 

The amount of New Zealanders who think now is a good time to buy major household items is up 5% to 57%, while 22% (down 8%) think now is a bad time to buy. 

Gary Morgan says:

“This Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating of 128 is the highest result since early April and comes on the back of three successive falls.

“A key factor in the 12 point increase in confidence is New Zealanders optimistic view of future economic conditions: the number who expect good times financially over the next 12 months is up 8% to 45%, while the number who believe they and their family will be better off financially this time next year is up 6% to 54%.”

The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from October 1-14, 2007, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 985 people aged 14 and over.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:           Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures
																									Yearly
Year	Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug		Sep		Oct*		Nov		Dec		Average
2004	135.7		131.7		130.2		133.5		129.8		130		134.4		132.9		133.9		135.4		135		136.1		133.2
																			Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg. Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2005	140.9		139.1		136		125.2		125.5		128		127.7		125.6		126.2		121.4	121.3	121.4	119.8	121.1	117.5	128
	Beg Jan	Mid Jan	Beg Feb	Mid Feb	Beg Mar	Mid Mar	Beg Apr	Mid Apr	Beg May	Mid May	Beg Jun	Mid Jun	Beg Jul	Mid Jul	Beg Aug	Mid Aug	Beg Sep	Mid Sep	Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2006	118.3	123	111	115	115.1	116.5	115.7	116.7	104.8	112.5	110.8	114	115.4	118.8	112.1	113.3	115.5	123.8	123.4	124.8	124.0	123.3	128.2	127.8	117.7
2007	^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8	116.0	128					125.1
Monthly Average	130.9		127.4		126.1		124.7		119.4		120.8		123.1		121.5		123.7		124.3		124.7		126.1		126.0

# The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions for 2006:

		2006
		Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		June		July		Aug		Sept		Oct		Nov		Dec
		Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid
Interviews		917	976	968	958	985	959	944	953	995	984	985	992	977	983	997	995	945	992	940	969	897	992	949	949
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	39	42	41	36	40	39	38	40	36	36	37	36	36	39	41	40	38	44	42	44	39	38	41	41
	Worse off	25	22	25	26	28	30	25	27	35	32	33	32	30	29	32	32	32	27	28	26	27	27	25	26
	Question 1 difference	14	20	16	10	12	9	13	13	1	4	4	4	6	10	9	8	6	17	14	18	12	11	16	15
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	51	56	51	49	52	52	53	56	47	49	48	49	51	51	50	49	49	56	56	54	55	55	56	54
	Worse off	18	18	20	18	20	20	17	16	28	24	23	22	22	18	22	22	22	18	17	16	16	16	14	16
	Question 2 difference	33	38	31	31	32	32	36	40	19	25	25	27	29	33	28	27	27	38	39	38	39	39	42	38
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	34	36	25	30	33	35	31	30	27	31	33	32	35	36	32	32	36	39	41	41	45	44	45	45
	Bad Times	38	36	48	40	42	43	43	41	52	46	46	42	42	37	44	44	39	33	33	28	30	29	23	23
	Question 3 difference	-4	0	-23	-10	-9	-8	-12	-11	-25	-15	-13	-10	-7	-1	-12	-12	-3	6	8	13	15	15	22	22
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next 5 years of so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	39	45	36	42	40	45	40	42	40	42	42	48	45	46	40	43	45	48	47	46	47	44	47	51
	Bad times	28	26	31	26	29	28	30	27	35	29	35	28	26	22	32	29	26	22	27	27	26	27	21	20
	Question 4 difference	11	19	5	16	11	17	10	15	5	13	7	20	19	24	8	14	19	26	20	19	21	17	26	31
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	61	62	54	55	57	60	58	55	54	59	58	57	56	54	54	55	55	57	57	58	56	57	57	59
	Bad time to buy	24	24	28	27	27	28	26	28	30	24	27	28	26	26	26	26	26	25	21	22	23	22	22	26
	Question 5 difference	37	38	26	28	30	32	32	27	24	35	31	29	30	28	28	29	29	32	36	36	33	35	35	33
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence		118.3	123	111	115	115.1	116.5	115.7	116.7	104.8	112.5	110.8	114	115.4	118.8	112.1	113.3	115.5	123.8	123.4	124.8	124.0	123.3	128.2	127.8

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions for 2007:

		2007
		Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		June		July		Aug		Sept		Oct		Nov		Dec
		Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid	Early	Mid
Interviews		^	1,956	967	990	1,080	1,092	938	1,084	1,072	1,195	1,040	1,001	1,054	1,077	1,003	1,036	980	1,023	1,010	985
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	^	41	40	44	40	43	41	42	41	41	41	37	39	37	40	42	41	40	37	43
	Worse off	^	21	23	22	26	23	25	24	26	27	25	30	23	29	23	25	26	27	29	24
	Question 1 difference	^	20	17	22	14	20	16	18	15	14	16	7	16	8	17	17	15	13	8	19
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	^	58	56	56	55	59	57	52	52	52	50	50	48	50	51	52	53	51	48	54
	Worse off	^	12	16	13	15	13	15	15	18	16	17	19	18	16	17	15	14	18	21	16
	Question 2 difference	^	46	40	43	40	46	42	37	34	36	33	31	30	34	34	37	39	33	27	38
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	^	52	51	50	48	45	47	45	38	40	43	40	41	37	33	37	39	39	37	45
	Bad Times	^	18	20	23	28	26	26	28	35	30	30	37	30	34	37	37	32	30	36	26
	Question 3 difference	^	34	31	27	20	19	21	17	3	10	13	3	11	3	-4	0	7	9	1	19
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next 5 years of so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	^	52	53	51	49	50	54	47	44	45	46	45	46	44	40	47	44	47	46	48
	Bad times	^	17	17	23	23	22	20	24	28	28	26	25	24	24	23	22	20	21	24	19
	Question 4 difference	^	35	36	28	26	28	34	23	16	17	20	20	22	20	17	25	24	26	22	29
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	^	66	64	64	63	57	61	58	61	59	57	58	55	60	61	64	56	50	52	57
	Bad time to buy	^	17	19	16	19	22	21	20	21	23	23	26	26	22	22	22	28	32	30	22
	Question 5 difference	^	49	45	48	44	35	40	38	40	36	34	32	29	38	39	42	28	18	22	35
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence		^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8	116.0	128.0

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall.  The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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