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The mid-November Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is 121 — 1.7 points down from the previous result, 3.9 points below the 2007 average of 124.9 and 2.9 points below the November average of 123.9.

The drop in Consumer Confidence is driven predominantly by a drop in the number of New Zealanders saying now is a good time to buy major household items, down 5% to 51%, while 27% (up 4%) think now is a bad time to buy.

Two-in five (40%, unchanged) New Zealanders expect good times financially over the next 12 months compared to 27% (down 2%) who think there will be bad times.

Thirty-seven per cent (down 1%) of New Zealanders say they and their family are better off financially now than they were at this time last year, while 29% (up 2%) think they are now worse off.

Looking ahead, 52% (up 3%) New Zealanders aged 14 and above believe they and their family will be better off financially this time next year, while 15% (down 1%) think they will be worse off.

More New Zealanders (44%, unchanged) think the country as a whole will enjoy continuous good times over the next five years compared to those who think there will be bad times (21%, up 2%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The mid-November Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating at 121 is below both its 2007 average, by 3.9 points, and November average, by 2.9 points as New Zealand heads into the peak retail season of Christmas. However of greater concern to retailers will be the drop, of 5% to 51%, of New Zealanders thinking this is a good time to buy major household items and the likely negative effect on retail sales this festive season.

“Looking longer-term, over the following 12 months, an unchanged 40% of consumers expect good times financially for New Zealand, while 51% (up 2%) of New Zealanders expect they and their family will be better off financially this time next year, which indicates that New Zealanders remain broadly positive about the general direction the economy is heading in.”

The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from October 29 — November 11, 2007, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 974 people aged 14 and over.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.  The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

	Percentage Estimate
Sample Size	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:         Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures
																									Yearly
Year	Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug		Sep		Oct*		Nov		Dec		Average
2004	135.7		131.7		130.2		133.5		129.8		130		134.4		132.9		133.9		135.4		135		136.1		133.2
																			Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg. Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2005	140.9		139.1		136		125.2		125.5		128		127.7		125.6		126.2		121.4	121.3	121.4	119.8	121.1	117.5	128.0
	Beg Jan	Mid Jan	Beg Feb	Mid Feb	Beg Mar	Mid Mar	Beg Apr	Mid Apr	Beg May	Mid May	Beg Jun	Mid Jun	Beg Jul	Mid Jul	Beg Aug	Mid Aug	Beg Sep	Mid Sep	Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2006	118.3	123	111	115	115.1	116.5	115.7	116.7	104.8	112.5	110.8	114	115.4	118.8	112.1	113.3	115.5	123.8	123.4	124.8	124.0	123.3	128.2	127.8	117.7
2007	^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8	116.0	128.0	122.7	121.0			124.9
Monthly Average	130.9		127.4		126.1		124.7		119.4		120.8		123.1		121.5		123.7		124.3		123.9		126.1		124.3

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:

			2007
			Jan			Feb		Mar			Apr		May				Jun				Jul			Aug			Sep
			Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid		Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid		Beg		Mid		Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid
Interviews			^		1,956	967	990	1,080	1,092		938	1,084	1,072		1,195		1,040		1,001		1,054		1,077	1,003	1,036	980		1,023
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year		Better off		^	41	40	44	40	43		41	42	41		41		41		37		39		37	40	42	41		40
		Worse off		^	21	23	22	26	23		25	24	26		27		25		30		23		29	23	25	26		27
Question 1 difference				^	20	17	22	14	20		16	18	15		14		16		7		16		8	17	17	15		13
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
		Better off		^	58	56	56	55	59		57	52	52		52		50		50		48		50	51	52	53		51
		Worse off		^	12	16	13	15	13		15	15	18		16		17		19		18		16	17	15	14		18
Question 2 difference				^	46	40	43	40	46		42	37	34		36		33		31		30		34	34	37	39		33
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
		Good Times		^	52	51	50	48	45		47	45	38		40		43		40		41		37	33	37	39		39
		Bad Times		^	18	20	23	28	26		26	28	35		30		30		37		30		34	37	37	32		30
Question 3 difference				^	34	31	27	20	19		21	17	3		10		13		3		11		3	-4	0	7		9
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
		Good times		^	52	53	51	49	50		54	47	44		45		46		45		46		44	40	47	44		47
		Bad times		^	17	17	23	23	22		20	24	28		28		26		25		24		24	23	22	20		21
Question 4 difference				^	35	36	28	26	28		34	23	16		17		20		20		22		20	17	25	24		26
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy			^	66	64	64	63		57	61	58	61		59		57		58		55		60	61	64	56		50
	Bad time to buy			^	17	19	16	19		22	21	20	21		23		23		26		26		22	22	22	28		32
Question 5 difference				^	49	45	48	44		35	40	38	40		36		34		32		29		38	39	42	28		18
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating				^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7		130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5		123.2		118.7		121.4		120.7		120.5	124.3	122.7		119.8

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

			2007
			Oct					Nov		Dec
			Beg		Mid			Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid
Interviews			1,010		985			952	974
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year		Better off		37	43			38	37
		Worse off		29	24			27	29
Question 1 difference				8	19			11	8
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
		Better off		48	54			49	52
		Worse off		21	16			16	15
Question 2 difference				27	38			33	37
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
		Good Times		37	45			40	40
		Bad Times		36	26			29	27
Question 3 difference				1	19			11	13
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
		Good times		46	48			44	44
		Bad times		24	19			19	21
Question 4 difference				22	29			25	23
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy			52		57		56	51
	Bad time to buy			30		22		23	27
Question 5 difference				22		35		33	24
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating				116.0			128.0	122.7	121.0

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

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