New Zealand Consumer Confidence for Early December up 5.9pts to 126.9
| Article No. 704 -
December 04, 2007 |
The early December Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is 126.9 — 5.9 points up from the previous result, 1.9 points above the 2007 average of 125 and 0.6 points above the December average of 126.3.
The rise in Consumer Confidence is mainly driven by rises in New Zealanders saying they are financially better off than a year ago, which is up 11% to 48%, the highest reading in 2007.
There has also been a significant rise in New Zealanders expecting to be better off in a year than they are now, up 6% to 58% - the highest reading since March 2007.
43% (up 3%) of New Zealanders expect good times financially over the next 12 months compared to 27% (unchanged) who think there will be bad times.
Looking ahead, half of New Zealanders aged 14 and above (50%, up 6%) believe that New Zealand will enjoy continuous good times during the next five years, while 22% (up 1%), think there will be continuous bad times.
More than half of New Zealanders (55%, up 4%) think now is a good time to buy major household items while 27% (unchanged) think now is a bad time.
Gary Morgan says:
“The early December Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating at 126.9 has risen strongly from its November dip. With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand finally signalling its 4 year policy of tightening is finally over after 13 interest rate increases, New Zealanders are entering the holiday season with renewed confidence. A 2007 high of 48% of New Zealanders saying they are better off financially now than a year ago indicates the underlying strength of the New Zealand economy — despite 4 interest rate increases in 2007 that bring interest rates in New Zealand to a record level of 8.25%.
“Looking towards 2008, 58% of New Zealanders expect to be better off financially a year from now than they are now, which is a strong positive statement from consumers heading into Christmas. An increase in the number of New Zealanders saying now is a good time to buy major household items, to 55%, will also bring cheer to the nation’s retailers who have been hit by the rises in interest rates.”
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from November 12-25, 2007, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 958 people aged 14 and over.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
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Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
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Yearly |
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Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct* |
Nov |
Dec |
Average |
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2004 |
135.7 |
131.7 |
130.2 |
133.5 |
129.8 |
130 |
134.4 |
132.9 |
133.9 |
135.4 |
135 |
136.1 |
133.2 |
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Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg. Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg Dec |
Mid Dec |
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2005 |
140.9 |
139.1 |
136 |
125.2 |
125.5 |
128 |
127.7 |
125.6 |
126.2 |
121.4 |
121.3 |
121.4 |
119.8 |
121.1 |
117.5 |
128.0 |
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Beg Jan |
Mid Jan |
Beg Feb |
Mid Feb |
Beg Mar |
Mid Mar |
Beg Apr |
Mid Apr |
Beg May |
Mid May |
Beg Jun |
Mid Jun |
Beg
Jul |
Mid
Jul |
Beg Aug |
Mid Aug |
Beg Sep |
Mid
Sep |
Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg
Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg Dec |
Mid Dec |
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2006 |
118.3 |
123 |
111 |
115 |
115.1 |
116.5 |
115.7 |
116.7 |
104.8 |
112.5 |
110.8 |
114 |
115.4 |
118.8 |
112.1 |
113.3 |
115.5 |
123.8 |
123.4 |
124.8 |
124.0 |
123.3 |
128.2 |
127.8 |
117.7 |
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2007 |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
126.9 |
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125 |
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Monthly Average |
130.9 |
127.4 |
126.1 |
124.7 |
119.4 |
120.8 |
123.1 |
121.5 |
123.7 |
124.3 |
123.9 |
126.3 |
124.3 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005.
^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:
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2007 |
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Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
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Interviews |
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^ |
1,956 |
967 |
990 |
1,080 |
1,092 |
938 |
1,084 |
1,072 |
1,195 |
1,040 |
1,001 |
1,054 |
1,077 |
1,003 |
1,036 |
980 |
1,023 |
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Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
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Over the past year |
Better off |
^ |
41 |
40 |
44 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
37 |
39 |
37 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
40 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
21 |
23 |
22 |
26 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
25 |
30 |
23 |
29 |
23 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
|
Question 1 difference |
^ |
20 |
17 |
22 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
18 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
7 |
16 |
8 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
13 |
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Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
| |
Better off |
^ |
58 |
56 |
56 |
55 |
59 |
57 |
52 |
52 |
52 |
50 |
50 |
48 |
50 |
51 |
52 |
53 |
51 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
12 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
18 |
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Question 2 difference |
|
^ |
46 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
46 |
42 |
37 |
34 |
36 |
33 |
31 |
30 |
34 |
34 |
37 |
39 |
33 |
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Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good Times |
^ |
52 |
51 |
50 |
48 |
45 |
47 |
45 |
38 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
41 |
37 |
33 |
37 |
39 |
39 |
| |
Bad Times |
^ |
18 |
20 |
23 |
28 |
26 |
26 |
28 |
35 |
30 |
30 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
37 |
37 |
32 |
30 |
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Question 3 difference |
^ |
34 |
31 |
27 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
3 |
11 |
3 |
-4 |
0 |
7 |
9 |
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Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
^ |
52 |
53 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
54 |
47 |
44 |
45 |
46 |
45 |
46 |
44 |
40 |
47 |
44 |
47 |
| |
Bad times |
^ |
17 |
17 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
24 |
28 |
28 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
|
Question 4 difference |
^ |
35 |
36 |
28 |
26 |
28 |
34 |
23 |
16 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
17 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
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Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
| |
Good time to buy |
^ |
66 |
64 |
64 |
63 |
57 |
61 |
58 |
61 |
59 |
57 |
58 |
55 |
60 |
61 |
64 |
56 |
50 |
| |
Bad time to buy |
^ |
17 |
19 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
28 |
32 |
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Question 5 difference |
^ |
49 |
45 |
48 |
44 |
35 |
40 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
34 |
32 |
29 |
38 |
39 |
42 |
28 |
18 |
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Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
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2007 |
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Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|
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Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
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Interviews |
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1,010 |
985 |
952 |
974 |
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Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
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|
Over the past year |
Better off |
37 |
43 |
38 |
37 |
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|
| |
Worse off |
29 |
24 |
27 |
29 |
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Question 1 difference |
8 |
19 |
11 |
8 |
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Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
| |
Better off |
48 |
54 |
49 |
52 |
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| |
Worse off |
21 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
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Question 2 difference |
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27 |
38 |
33 |
37 |
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Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
| |
Good Times |
37 |
45 |
40 |
40 |
|
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|
| |
Bad Times |
36 |
26 |
29 |
27 |
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Question 3 difference |
1 |
19 |
11 |
13 |
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Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
46 |
48 |
44 |
44 |
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| |
Bad times |
24 |
19 |
19 |
21 |
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Question 4 difference |
22 |
29 |
25 |
23 |
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Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
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| |
Good time to buy |
52 |
57 |
56 |
51 |
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|
| |
Bad time to buy |
30 |
22 |
23 |
27 |
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Question 5 difference |
22 |
35 |
33 |
24 |
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Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
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*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
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